ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 24th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, August 24. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

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New updates

ASX 200 higher as miners hit all-time highs

[2:31 pm] That's a wrap! The S&P/ASX 200 is up 49 pts (+0.54%) as the Materials sector scores its first record high since 17 June, largely off the back of BHP (+3.4%) and broader gains across gold, lithium and copper stocks.

Not much beyond soaring miners, with tech still down 2.8% since the 14-Aug high, Healthcare stocks higher after a 1.8% pullback last Friday and Energy continuing to grind higher, on track for a six-day win streak. Financials traded lower, now down ten of the last twelve sessions.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Zijin flags copper target risk after Kamoa-Kakula flooding

[2:16 pm] Another supply setback at one of the world's largest copper mines, landing with the metal already trading near record levels.

• Zijin said its share of output from the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the DRC could fall by as much as 57,000t this year, against a full year target of 1.2Mt of mined copper

• The company holds just over 44% of the project, which is still ramping back up after seismic activity forced a suspension last year and triggered the flooding

• Partner Ivanhoe Mines cut 2026 guidance for the mine in April to 290,000t to 330,000t from 380,000t to 420,000t, a cut of roughly 22% at the midpoints

• Copper has pushed back above US$14,000/t and sits near the record set earlier this year, with the market highly sensitive to mine-level disruption given electrification and AI infrastructure demand

Source: Bloomberg

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Ampol 1H26 earnings call highlights

[2:14 pm] A record first half driven by global supply disruption, with management pointing to a softer second half at the refinery and a policy catalyst still unresolved.

• On earnings: RCOP EBIT of $1.4bn was up 245%, with the Lytton refiner margin averaging US$28.26 a barrel through a period of severe global supply disruption

• On the outlook: CEO Matt Halliday pointed to drawn down product stocks across Russia and the Middle East, saying tightness is "hard to rebuild quickly" given limited spare refinery capacity

• On Lytton: the refinery will run at roughly 70% of normal levels through the turnaround, with the low sulfur fuels project due to start up in October

• On policy: the fuel security cap has been revised to 10c a litre, with the FSSP phase II review the key catalyst and Greg Barnes saying the aim is to "make refining as investable as possible"

• On EG: final cash consideration of about $1.165bn added roughly $1.1bn to net debt, with $65m to $80m of annual synergies targeted within two years of completion

• On retail: shop sales rose just 0.4%, though up 3.5% excluding tobacco and U-GO conversions, with 47 U-GO sites now open and U-GO fuel volumes up 64%

Company page: Ampol (ALD)

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Ventia 1H26 earnings call highlights

[2:12 pm] Management framed the first half as the revenue trough, with margin gains argued to be structural rather than mix-driven.

• On margins: EBITDA margin expanded 1.1 points to a record 9.4% on revenue down 4.7% to $2.9bn, with Dean Banks saying "I think it is structural" and pointing to a long-term margin above 9%

• On the revenue trough: CFO Mark Fleming said the first half "is the bottom for us in terms of revenue", with both Defence contracts now mobilised and a higher second half run rate expected in revenue and EBITDA

• On guidance: full year NPATA growth of 7% to 10% reaffirmed, with Fleming pointing to a 46/54 half-on-half NPATA split consistent with prior years

• On telcos: telco was the one soft spot, with Banks saying volumes were "a little bit softer in the first half than we anticipated" though he expects them to rise rather than fall

• On capital: the buyback was upsized $50m to a $300m program with the dividend now 100% franked, and net debt to EBITDA at 1.4x leaving Fleming saying "we do not feel capital constrained"

Company page: Ventia (VNT)

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Aussie Broadband FY26 earnings call highlights

[2:11 pm] Management shifted the focus from executing deals to monetising them, with guidance underpinned by AGL, More and Nexgen rather than a better competitive backdrop.

• On FY27 guidance: underlying EBITDA of $205m to $215m implies 24% to 30% growth, blending organic momentum with full year More, Tangerine and Nexgen contributions and a part year of AGL

• On competition: EBITDA margin rose 1.2 points to 12.8% despite gross margin easing, with Brian Maher saying pricing in the market is "essentially at wholesale prices" and that there is "no sign" of rationality returning

• On the AGL migration: 116,000 connections are on the network with completion due in Q2 FY27, though Maher flagged attrition, noting the Origin migration ended at about 130,000 of a peak 150,000

• On capital management: a $115m on-market buyback plus a 50% lift in the ordinary dividend, with CFO Darren Rowland saying it will be "largely funded from operating cash flow in FY 2027" at 0.9x leverage

Company page: Aussie Broadband (ABB)

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Mitchell Services FY26 earnings call highlights

[2:11 pm] Management framed FY26 as the year the fixed cost base finally paid off, while flagging margins and labour as the FY27 swing factors.

• On operating leverage: revenue up 5% to $207m converted into EBITDA up 67% to $42.8m and NPAT of $15.2m against $0.5m, with Nathan Mitchell saying "the operating leverage in this business is real, and this is the year it showed up in the numbers"

• On margins: the 20.7% EBITDA margin benefited from minimal wet weather and almost no mobilisation drag, with CFO Greg Switala telling investors it "will be a great achievement to stick to 20 long term" and suggesting modelling slightly below that

• On rig count: 65 rigs at year end from a low of 59 in April, with 68 running today and Switala expecting FY27 to "continue to increase" without guiding a number, against a fleet of 90

• On labour: Fair Work drove a 4.7% increase at lower levels and Switala flagged wages as "one of the largest risks... within the business at the moment", with Olympics infrastructure demand still to arrive

• On capital management: net cash of $3.5m plus $35m of undrawn facilities, a 6c fully franked FY26 dividend at roughly 85% payout, and franking capacity for a further $8m of fully franked dividends

• On end markets: gold is now 60% of revenue with coal "slowing down" but metalliferous demand strong, and Mitchell arguing copper "already is the next gold"

Company page: Mitchell Services (MSV)

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Endeavour Group FY26 earnings call highlights: Cost out swallowed by wages, consumer spending less per pub visit

[1:41 pm] Management fielded questions on the FY27 investment load, the durability of retail momentum and softening hotels trade, with several disclosures beyond the result itself.

• On the $100m cost out, wage growth in FY27 is "quite materially elevated, and therefore the AUD 100 million of cost out will go to largely offset it, but will not drive more than an offset"

• On the retail start to FY27, the 4.6% was flattered by promotions: "I hadn't seen a 20% off before, and hopefully we don't see" more, with two shorter events also run in the seven weeks

• On the hotels slowdown, "it is definitely spend per visit that is the biggest problem", with the correlation to fuel prices visible in specific customer groups and times of day, and renewed venues holding up better

• On hotels margin during the renewal step-up, reported growth may look soft against market because "when we are in renewal, we do not fractionalize all of the fixed costs"

• On retail gross margin, no call on a flat year given "the critical swing factor is the competitive environment", with FY26 only carrying three quarters of the shelf price investment

Company page: Endeavour Group (EDV)

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Energy and Materials top the sector leaderboard

[12:01 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is up 4.6% year-to-date, but the only sectors trading in positive YTD territory are Utilities, Staples, Energy and Materials.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors year-to-date

Here are the top performing ASX 200 stocks year-to-date.

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Hedge funds ramp up dollar shorts ahead of Bessent's fiscal plan

[11:57 am] Bearish dollar positioning is building as traders await detail on the Treasury Secretary's plan to tackle the highest US borrowing costs in years.

• Bessent's 19 August decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated securities "by at least double" triggered the dollar's worst single-day fall in almost three weeks, with the currency little changed in Asia on Monday

• Barclays flags dollar selling accelerated among hedge fund clients against persistent dollar supply through August, while real-money flows have been far less directional

• The premium to hedge dollar downside over the next month relative to upside has climbed to its highest since February on a Bloomberg gauge

• Demand for dollar puts versus the euro ran 47% above dollar calls on 21 August, based on DTCC data for contracts of US$150m or more

• Asian demand is concentrated in short-dated options on the Korean won, Thai baht and Singapore dollar, with offshore yuan volatility drawing interest near multi-year lows

Source: Bloomberg

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Turnaround stories emerge as the second theme of reporting season

[11:55 am] Beaten-up ASX names showing early signs of a successful reset have been the standout performers this August, outside the fallout from the US-Iran war.

• IG's Tony Sycamore says the season has given companies a chance to talk about what has gone wrong, with traders rewarding those signalling the worst is behind them

• CSL posted its biggest one-day gain in 25 years after flagging a return to profit next year, following a period that included a $5bn impairment, a cut earnings target and the CEO's exit, with the stock now up more than 80% from its June low

• eToro's Josh Gilbert notes a beaten-up stock does not need a great result to rally, just one better than feared

• ASX shares had their best day in six years on an upbeat listings outlook despite annual net income falling 3.5%, with interim CEO Darren Yip framing FY26 as a reset ahead of Anthony Attia taking over next month

• ANZ gained about 7% in two days on its third-quarter result and is up 5% this quarter versus a 4% fall at CBA, with 84% of the 3,500 flagged job cuts complete by end-June

• Treasury Wine hit an eight-month high on the day it announced a $558.4m post-tax writedown to fix US supply chain issues, with the stock up about 8% this year after a 54% slump in 2025

Source: Bloomberg

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ASX 200 Materials index at all-time highs

[11:09 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is up 2.6% in early trade, soaring past the 17 June record amid a broad uplift for copper, lithium, gold, rare earths, aluminium and coal names. Here are some of the top performing large cap miners today.

S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (top left), BHP (top right), S&P/All Ords Gold Index (bottom left) and PLS Group (bottom right) | Source: TradingView

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:26 am] Lots of movers this morning, so here's a longer list of top ASX 200 gainers. We missed the Ansell result this morning (a rally of that magnitude means it probably beat both FY26 and FY27 guidance). Meanwhile, miners including coal, copper, lithium and uranium are trading broadly higher, with BHP (+3.2%) hitting fresh all-time highs.

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Top ASX 200 losers

[10:26 am] Here's an expanded list of top decliners in early trade, with NiB, Endeavour and Reece trading lower off the back of FY26 results, while insurers, energy and a few gold names take a breather.

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Miners set to rally as copper and gold prices soar

[9:50 am] Local miners are set to rally after a strong overnight session for most commodity prices

• Copper prices up 1.5% to US$6.66/lb, with the NYSE-listed Global X Copper Miners ETF rallying 5.1%, just 1% away from its 27-Feb record close

• NYSE-listed Global X Uranium ETF rallied 5.0% to a fresh two-month high

• Gold advanced 1.8% to US$4,602/oz, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 2.9% to the highest since 10-Mar

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GemLife upgrades FY26 guidance after first half beats on settlements and pricing

[9:46 am] The vertically integrated land lease developer delivered strong growth on the pcp and exceeded Prospectus forecasts, prompting an earnings upgrade.

Note: Comparisons are to Morgans 1H26 forecasts

• Revenue up 86% to $195.1m vs $184.5m ests (6% beat)

• EBIT up 89% to $68.3m vs $66.2m ests (3% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 102% to $58.5m vs $54.2m ests (8% beat)

• Underlying EPS of 15.4c vs 14.3c ests (8% beat)

• Settlements up 75% to 208, ahead of the Prospectus forecast of 192

• ASP up 10% to $876,000 on stronger demand and premium home mix, with home build margin of 49.9%

• Development EBITDA up 98% to $78.4m, 38.8% above the Prospectus forecast

• Inaugural annual distribution of 1.1 cps declared, in line with Prospectus guidance

• FY26 underlying EPS guidance upgraded to 30.0-31.0 cps from 28.5-30.0 cps, implying 27-31% growth and sitting above the 30.0 cps ests

Company page: GemLife Communities Group (GLF)

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hipages triples pro-forma profit and steps into insurance as free cash flow builds

[9:36 am] The tradie marketplace met FY26 guidance on revenue, margin and free cash flow, with ARPU growth doing the heavy lifting and a buyback underway.

• Pro-forma NPAT up 156% to $6.1m

• Free cash flow of $9.4m, with a 50% flow-through rate on incremental revenue

• Subscription ARPU up 9%, the main driver of the result

• Cash balance of $34m supporting disciplined M&A and the buyback of up to 10% of issued capital

• Acquired a majority stake in Viz Insurance, adding 4,500 users and broadening the addressable market

• FY27 guidance of revenue growth of 9% to 11%, EBITDA margin of 25% to 27% and free cash flow of $11m to $13m, the latter implying roughly 28% growth on FY26

A fairly interesting stock, with a market cap of ~$111m (so trading at 18.5x FY26 NPAT or 12.5x on an EV basis). The stock is down 34% year-to-date and has been trading pretty much sideways since early 2023.

Company page: hipages Group (HPG)

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Regis beats FY26 guidance as occupancy and RAD inflows drive cash generation

[9:32 am] Regis Healthcare has delivered double digit revenue growth and a strong cash result, lifting its dividend 13% as acquisitions and ramping homes fed through.

Note: Comparisons below are to Macquarie ests only, not consensus.

• Revenue from services up 16% to $1,350.6m vs $1,374m ests (2% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA up 10% to $138.0m vs $135m ests (2% beat), which the company says exceeded FY26 guidance

• Underlying NPAT up 4% to $55.6m vs $50m ests (11% beat), with statutory NPAT up 14% to $55.7m

• Total FY26 dividends up 13% to 18.40 cents vs 17.0 cents ests (8% beat), with a 100% franked final of 9.40 cents

• Mature home occupancy of 96.0% from 95.6%, in line with ests, though occupied bed days of 2.85 million came in 1% shy of the 2.87 million forecast

• Net operating cash flow up 10% to $336.3m, including net RAD inflow of $250.5m, with net cash of $173.8m at 30 June

• Average incoming RAD up 20% to $697,200, with roughly 70% of rooms repriced in July and August at 10% higher advertised prices

• Management flags more than $500m of net operating cash inflow over time as existing RADs reprice, plus more than $50m per annum from RAD retention once fully phased in

Company page: Regis Healthcare (REG)

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Adairs holds the line as Focus on Furniture drags on a mixed FY26

[9:30 am] Adairs has delivered modest sales growth with underlying earnings broadly flat, though a large impairment at Focus on Furniture pushed the group to a statutory loss.

• Group sales up 3.8% to $641.7m vs $644.7m ests (in line), with growth at Adairs and Mocka partly offset by a decline at Focus on Furniture

• Gross margin up 10bps to 59.0% on pricing discipline and shallower promotions, partly offset by clearance activity at Focus

• Underlying EBITDA up 1.0% to $68.7m vs $68.7m ests (in line)

• Underlying EBIT down 0.4% to $55.0m vs $54.5m ests (1% beat), with Adairs and Mocka both delivering double digit growth

• Underlying NPAT up 1.7% to $34.6m vs $33.9m ests (2% beat)

• Fully franked final dividend of 6.0 cents takes the FY26 total up 9.5% to 11.5 cents vs 8.5 cents ests (35% beat)

• Net debt down 29.6% to $47.6m at 0.7x underlying EBITDA, with operating cash flow of $65.0m and cash realisation near 120%

• First eight weeks of FY27 group sales down 4.5%, with Mocka up 15.3% and Adairs steady at 0.4%, but Focus written sales down 27.6% on inventory availability

Company page: Adairs (ADH)

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Three ASX names in trading halt ahead of deal and raising news

[9:24 am] Ingenia, GR Engineering and L1 Gold Fund have all requested trading halts this morning.

• Ingenia Communities (INA) is halted pending an announcement relating to a potential material acquisition

• GR Engineering Services (GNG) is halted pending an announcement on a proposed equity raising, in place until the raising result is released or trading opens on 26 August

• L1 Gold Fund (LGF) is halted pending a placement to sophisticated and professional investors, until the institutional outcome is announced or trading opens on 26 August

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Mitchell Services beats on earnings and returns to net cash as operating leverage bites

[9:22 am] The drilling contractor delivered one of its strongest results on record from broadly flat activity levels, with the balance sheet flipping to net cash.

• EBITDA up 67% to $42.8m vs $41.4m ests (3% beat)

• NPAT of $15.2m vs $14.0m ests (9% beat), against $0.5m in FY25

• Operating cash flow up 107% to $37.4m

• Net cash of $3.5m, from $8.4m net debt at 30 June 2025

• Fully franked final dividend of 2.0 cps (approx 3.77% yield based on last Friday close of 53 cents)

• FY26 dividends of 6.0 cps, in line with ests

• Management flags significant operating leverage remaining, with the result achieved from a similar level of activity to FY25 in a strengthening rig market

Company page: Mitchell Services (MSV)

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nib lifts underlying profit 9% and beats on dividend as Travel exit nears completion

[9:19 am] Premium growth and a lower expense ratio drove underlying gains, though claims inflation and one-off costs weighed on statutory earnings. Comparisons below are to Macquarie ests.

• Total income up 6.2% to $3.85bn

• Incurred claims up 7.6% to $2.94bn vs $2,952m ests (in line)

• Underlying operating profit up 9.1% to $260.9m vs $263.3m ests (in line)

• Operating expense ratio down 110bp to 16.6%

• Profit before tax down 0.3% to $258.4m vs $258.9m ests (in line)

• NPAT down 5.9% to $186.9m vs $183.8m ests (2% beat)

• 2H26 dividend of 21 cps, including a 5 cps special dividend

• Full year dividend of 34 cps vs 30 cps ests (13% beat)

• nib Travel sale to complete in 1H27 for about $97m net cash, of which about $24m funded the special

• FY27 UOP guidance of $265m to $285m excluding nib Travel, running a touch ahead of $267.6m ests, subject to risk equalisation

Company page: nib holdings (NHF)

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PLS swings to a record year as lithium prices recover and costs fall 9%

[9:12 am] Higher realised prices and record volumes drove a multi-fold earnings uplift, with a surprise dividend and a shift from defensive positioning to growth. Comparisons below are to Macquarie ests.

• Revenue up 152% to $1,934m vs $1,934m ests (in line)

• Average realised price up 121% to US$1,488/t on an SC5.2 basis

• Sales volume up 17% to a record 891.6kt

• Underlying EBITDA of $1,137m vs. $97m in FY25 at a 59% margin

• Unit operating costs (FOB) down 9% to $569/t, or US$386/t

• NPAT of $526m vs $510m ests (3% beat), held back by higher depreciation and tax on the return to profitability

• Fully franked final dividend of 5 cps

• Cash up $1,316m to $2,290m, including the inaugural US$600m bond

• Ngungaju restart underway with about $175m of pre-FID P2000 capex approved in June

Very interesting to see PLS resume dividends (briefly paid an interim and final dividend in 2023 before lithium prices crashed). The 5 cps dividend represents a yield of just 0.98% based on last Friday's close ($5.07). This is a surprise vs. Macquarie's ests of no dividends for the foreseeable future, though both Morgan Stanley and Bell Potter had modelled ~4 cps for FY26.

Company page: PLS (PLS)

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Endeavour beats on underlying profit as retail momentum builds, but FY27 shapes as another investment year

[9:02 am] Sales momentum improved through the second half on price leadership, though earnings fell on margin investment and cost inflation, with the dividend cut sharply under the new payout policy.

• Group sales up 1.3% to $12.2bn vs $12,192m ests (in line)

• Underlying EBIT down 8.7% to $845m vs $851m ests (in line)

• Underlying NPAT of $363m vs $337m ests (8% beat)

• Statutory NPAT of $52m after a $372m pre-tax charge for significant items

• Fully franked final dividend of 1.2c takes the full year to 12.0c vs 14.0c ests (14% miss), a 59% payout under the revised 50% to 75% policy

• Retail sales up 0.7% to $10.0bn with Dan Murphy's and BWS comps up 0.5% and growth accelerating from 0.8% in Q3 to 2.2% in Q4, though retail EBIT fell 17.6% to $464m on an 86bp gross margin decline

• Hotels sales up 4.2% to $2.2bn with EBIT up 4.1% to $462m, but F27 earnings face disruption from up to 75 renewals, and group capex steps up to $550m to $650m

• FY27 capex guided to $550m to $650m, including $75m to $90m on One Endeavour, up to $60m on transformation initiatives and a $25m to $50m step-up in Hotels stay-in-business spend

• FY27 group CODB to rise despite $100m of cost-out, with a 4.75% award wage increase, $40m to $60m of extra opex, One Endeavour opex of $50m to $55m and corporate costs of $75m to $85m, plus finance costs of $330m to $340m

Company page: Endeavour Group (EDV)

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Adore Beauty posts record revenue but earnings squeezed as store rollout weighs on FY26

[9:00 am] The most capital-intensive year in the group's history delivered top-line records and a doubled store network, with profitability deferred to FY27.

Note: No ests available for comparison, figures are versus prior corresponding period only

• Revenue up 4.3% to $207.3m, including an $18.6m contribution from the new store network plus retail media and owned brand growth

• Underlying EBITDA of $3.8m on a pre-AASB 16 basis, or 1.8% of revenue and broadly in line with May guidance, with retail alone an EBITDA loss of $1.1m

• Gross margin down 52bp to 34.8% on a weak first half, though 2H margin was 18bp ahead of the pcp

• New customers up 14.4% to 418,600 with acquisition cost down 37.4% to $35.2, lifting the active base 2.6% to 858,800

• Net debt of $9.3m with $14.4m undrawn and the working capital facility lifted to $17m, and FY27 capex of about $8m weighted to 1H

• FY27 guidance reaffirmed at revenue growth of at least 10% and underlying EBITDA of $9m to $13m, underpinned by about $4m of annualised cost savings and store maturation

Company page: Adore Beauty Group (ABY)

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Reece holds earnings flat as ANZ recovery offsets soft US housing

[8:58 am] Reece has delivered modest FY26 revenue growth with earnings broadly flat, as recovering ANZ volumes were offset by a weak US residential construction backdrop.

• Revenue up 4.5% to $9.38bn vs $9.28bn ests (1% beat)

• EBITDA flat at $901m vs $899m ests (in line), with costs excluding D&A up 9.6% to $1.82bn on network, digital and employee investment

• NPAT down 2.8% to $308m vs $287m ests (7% beat)

• EPS up 0.7% to 49.5 cents vs 46.0 cents ests (8% beat)

• ANZ revenue up 8.3% to $4.20bn with EBIT up 6.1% to $360m, while US revenue rose 6.5% to US$3,511m but EBIT fell 13.0% to US$118m

• Final dividend of 13.40 cents fully franked takes the FY26 total to 18.84 cents vs 17.4 cents ests (8% beat)

• FY27 outlook flags a solid ANZ pipeline supporting first half momentum and only modest US growth, with net debt up to $744m and leverage of 1.0x

Company page: Reece (REH)

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Lindsay Australia tops $1bn revenue and beats on EBITDA as network build completes

[8:57 am] Record FY26 result driven by the first full year of SRT Logistics and organic growth, with the group now pivoting from building the network to extracting returns from it.

• Revenue up 26.2% to $1,072.7m vs $1,078m ests (in line)

• Underlying EBITDA up 25.6% to $127.8m vs $119m ests (7% beat)

• Underlying EPS of 7.6c came in slightly below 7.8c ests (3% miss)

• Fully franked final dividend of 1.7c takes the full year to 3.8c vs 3.6c ests (6% beat), flat on FY25 at a 60.7% payout

• ROIC eased to 13.9% from 14.3% on invested capital of $399.5m, with net leverage at 1.92x, down from 2.23x at the half

• Primary Connect contract for about 40 Woolworths stores in North Queensland adds $30m to $36m of annual revenue from October, backed by $20m of capital and clearing the 15% ROIC hurdle

Company page: Lindsay Australia (LAU)

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Regal doubles earnings on record inflows and bumper performance fees

[8:55 am] Regal Partners has more than doubled normalised earnings in 1H26, helped by a strong performance fee haul and a record half of net client inflows.

• Normalised NPAT up 108% to $93.3m

• Statutory NPAT up 258% to $94.1m

• Normalised fully diluted EPS up 104% to 21.4 cents

• Normalised performance fees of $118.7m did the heavy lifting, generated across multiple strategies

• Management and loan fee revenue up 14% on pcp, though pre-tax profit on that line grew a more modest 6%

• FUM of $21.4bn on record half-year net inflows of $1.4bn, an 11th straight quarter of positive flows, with North America now over a quarter of FUM

• Fully franked interim dividend of 12 cents, with roughly $290m of pro forma balance sheet capital plus an undrawn $130m facility

• Multi-Strategy Income Fund launches in September, while a new Regal Investment Committee will over time replace the single CIO structure

Company page: Regal Partners (RPL)

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Aussie Broadband beats on earnings and dividend but FY27 guidance lands below ests

[8:53 am] The telco lifted earnings ahead of revenue on operating leverage, with connection scale transformed by the More, Tangerine and AGL Telco migrations. Comparisons below are to Ord Minnett ests.

• Revenue up 9.2% to $1,295.4m vs $1,303.9m ests (in line)

• Underlying EBITDA up 19.6% to $165.3m vs $164.9m ests (in line), with EBITDA margin up 1.2ppt to 12.8%

• Underlying NPATA up 25.8% to $70.2m vs $68.5m ests (3% beat), with EPSA of 23.9c vs 23.5c ests (2% beat)

• Reported NPAT of $35.3m vs $38.1m ests (7% miss), dragged by a $17.2m loss on the Digital Sense divestment

• Fully franked FY26 dividend of 6.0c vs 5.0c ests (20% beat), alongside a buyback of up to $115m and net leverage of 0.9x

• FY27 underlying EBITDA guidance of $205m to $215m implies 24% to 30% growth but sits about 4% below $219.4m ests

Company page: Aussie Broadband (ABB)

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Ventia lifts margins and returns despite Defence-driven revenue decline

[8:51 am] Ventia has delivered 1H26 earnings growth and margin expansion despite lower revenue, upsizing its buyback and moving to full franking.

Note: Comparisons below are to UBS ests only, not consensus.

• Revenue down 4.7% to $2.89bn vs $3.06bn ests (5% miss), reflecting the transition to the new Defence Base Services Contract

• EBITDA up 8.2% to $273.3m vs $267m ests (2% beat), with group margin lifting to 9.4% versus the 8.7% forecast

• NPATA up 7.4% to $128.2m vs $124m ests (3% beat), with underlying EPS up 14.4% and cash conversion of 93.8%

• Interim dividend up 9.8% to 11.76 cents vs 11.7 cents ests (in line), now 100% franked versus 90% previously

• On-market buyback upsized by $50m to $300m, with $185.8m completed to date and net debt/EBITDA of 1.4x

• FY26 underlying NPATA guidance reaffirmed at 7% to 10% growth on FY25, with work in hand up 2.5% to $21.1bn

Company page: Ventia Services Group (VNT)

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Monash IVF delays FY26 results as audit runs over

[8:49 am] Monash IVF has pushed back the release of its FY26 results from 24 August to 31 August, with the company saying completion of the audit of its financial statements is taking longer than anticipated. Management is working with the auditor to finish the remaining procedures and will update the market on any further developments.

Company page: Monash IVF Group (MVF)

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Bendigo Bank grinds out modest earnings growth as margin improves

[8:47 am] Bendigo and Adelaide Bank has posted FY26 cash earnings of $530.2 million, with a stronger second half driven by a better deposit mix and lower costs.

Note: comparisons below are to Macquarie ests only, not consensus.

• Cash earnings up 3.0% to $530.2m vs $532m ests (in line), with second half cash earnings of $273.8m vs $274m ests (in line)

• Statutory NPAT of $375.1m vs $375m ests (in line), struck after an initial $70m provision for the non-financial risk rectification plan flagged last week

• Fully franked final dividend of 33 cents per share takes the full year to 63 cents, in line with ests

• NIM up 6bps over the second half to 1.98%, matching ests, with lower cost deposits lifting to 54.8% of customer deposits from 52.5%

• Total lending up 1.5% for the year, with business lending up 12.5% and Up lending up 56.3% to $2.6bn, offset by a slightly softer residential book

• Phase two of the productivity program carries $56m to $66m of pre-tax restructuring costs in FY27, for $65m to $75m of annual run rate benefits from FY28

Company page: Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

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City Chic doubles earnings on margin expansion as ANZ momentum accelerates into FY27

[8:46 am] The plus-size retailer delivered a sharply improved FY26 result on cost discipline and higher average selling prices, with US revenue deliberately sacrificed to manage tariff risk.

Note: City Chic is thinly covered, no ests/consensus available for comparison, figures are versus prior corresponding period only

• Global sales revenue of $130.5m, with ANZ up 7.6% to $113.8m on comp sales growth of 5.6% and USA revenue of $16.7m after a deliberate cut to purchasing

• Underlying EBITDA up 92% to $12.3m, excluding $0.2m of non-recurring costs versus $1.1m in FY25

• Trading margin up 2.1 percentage points to 60.6% on better assortments, lower promotional activity and higher selling prices

• Underlying cost of doing business down $7.1m to $66.1m, with marketing down 24% and employee costs down 5.5%

• Inventory down 11% to $24.1m and a net cash position of $5.2m, with all borrowings repaid and the $10m facility undrawn and extended to March 2028

• FY27 to date shows ANZ store comp sales up 11.4% over seven weeks with online down 8% on reduced promotions, and USA revenue growth and margin expected to return in 1H

Company page: City Chic Collective (CCX)

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Middle East disruption hands Ampol a bumper half as refining and supply chain deliver

[8:44 am] Ampol's integrated model capitalised on global product dislocation, with earnings up several-fold on the pcp and a modest beat across the key lines. Comparisons below are to Macquarie ests.

• RCOP EBITDA up 152% to $1,637.1m vs $1,603m ests (2% beat)

• RCOP EBIT up 245% to $1,391.7m vs $1,354m ests (3% beat), with Fuels and Infrastructure up 859% to $1,134.5m as Lytton swung to $533.4m from $1.1m

• RCOP NPAT up 376% to $857.2m vs $831m ests (3% beat)

• Statutory NPAT of $1,363.4m, reversing a $25.3m loss on a $527.6m inventory gain

• Fully franked interim dividend of 185cps vs 175cps ests (6% beat), more than four times the pcp

• July earnings ahead of pcp with Lytton refining margin at US$27.11/bbl, though retail margins are tighter on lagged cost pass-through and the Lytton T&I began 30 July with October restart

Company page: Ampol (ALD)

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Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech looms as bond market demands a reaction function

[8:41 am] The new Fed chair addresses the Kansas City Fed symposium on Friday under pressure to explain how the Fed responds to sticky inflation, after a July press conference that left markets unconvinced.

• Warsh gave little forward guidance after July's hold and long-term yields climbed to a two-decade high, with three FOMC members dissenting in favour of a hike

• Bloomberg Economics expects him to double down on cutting forward guidance rather than reassure markets, focusing on the intellectual framework behind his Fed reforms

• Treasury is now the complicating variable, with Bessent expanding long-dated buybacks and skewing issuance short, undercutting the market signal Warsh says the Fed should read

• Kashkari, one of three hike advocates last month, said he is not confident inflation is returning to target soon but would not prejudge September

• July PCE lands Wednesday with economists tipping 3.6% year on year, the slowest in four months, though rising oil prices from the Iran war cut against the cooling narrative

Source: Bloomberg

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US-Canada trade talks collapse as 50% tariffs bite and Carney pledges dollar-for-dollar retaliation

[8:39 am] Negotiations fell apart just before Saturday's deadline, triggering the first-ever use of a Depression-era tariff power and setting up a September escalation.

• Tariffs of 50% hit roughly US$20bn of Canadian exports, about 5% of the total, with no exemption for goods otherwise shielded under USMCA

• Canada retaliates dollar for dollar from 8 September on US steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics

• Oil, potash and critical minerals are carved out, protecting the 4m barrels a day of crude and products Canada supplies the US

• The collapsed deal would have cut steel and aluminium duties to 25%, autos to 15% and scrapped the 10% lumber tariff, leaving those rates in place

• Sticking point was heavy trucks, with the US refusing to extend light-vehicle terms to Canadian-built F-350 to F-550 and Silverado production

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US pivots from bombs to blockade as Iran threatens to shut Hormuz completely

[8:35 am] Washington is preparing its most aggressive economic squeeze on Tehran yet, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set to detail the plan on Monday, leaving oil and diesel markets exposed to Iranian retaliation.

• Bessent has pledged the "greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world" and told allies they are "either with us or against us", a framing that puts secondary sanctions risk on China, India, Turkey and the UAE, with the details due at a Monday news conference

• Hormuz traffic remains crippled at 20% of the pre-war seven-day average despite a 27% weekly rise to 103 vessels entering and 89 leaving, with Iran granting selective passage to Iraqi, Chinese, Indian and Pakistani tankers while denying US and Israel-linked ships

• Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei threatened to block all Gulf oil flows if neighbouring states join the US campaign, saying not "a single drop" would pass, a direct escalation risk to roughly 20m bpd of pre-war throughput

• Diesel is the tightest link, with Croft flagging historic high prices and no spare refining capacity, compounded by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, which flows through to global freight and agriculture costs

• Iran's economy is buckling, with inflation above 80%, the rial down almost 30% year to date, oil exports described by the central bank governor as having "virtually stopped" and the IMF forecasting a 6.1% contraction this year, though analysts warn effective pressure makes military retaliation more likely than capitulation

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Nvidia passes soaring memory costs through to server prices

[8:35 am] Nvidia has told major customers that prices for servers containing its AI chips will rise by more than 15% in many cases, with the increases taking effect on systems shipped early next year.

• Price rises will hit systems built around the flagship Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell chips, with the quantum of the increase varying by chip generation and memory configuration

• Contract server builders supplying hyperscalers including Microsoft, Alphabet's Google and Oracle have already notified customers of the forthcoming increases

• The move underlines the pricing power now held by DRAM makers Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, who have lifted output but still cannot meet AI-driven demand, forcing even a company with 75% gross margins to pass costs on rather than absorb them

• Apple and Qualcomm have flagged similar cost-driven price rises, and Nvidia has separately lifted pricing on gaming graphics cards, pointing to a broader hardware inflation cycle

• Whether customers absorb the increase or look to alternatives will likely hinge on their own ability to secure memory supply, with Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta all running in-house silicon programs but still reliant on Nvidia for data centre build-outs

Source: Bloomberg

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Dalio warns US debt crisis is three years away, tells investors to swap bonds for gold

[8:31 am] Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has urged investors to underweight bonds and lift gold allocations, arguing US fiscal arithmetic is heading toward a break point.

• Recommends holding 10% to 15% of a portfolio in gold plus a small Bitcoin position, arguing the combination lowers risk and raises returns versus a bond-heavy allocation

• Estimates US government revenue of about US$5.5tn this year against US$7.5tn of spending, leaving a US$2tn shortfall, with interest costs alone near US$1tn and roughly US$10tn of debt to be refinanced

• Sees a debt crisis arriving "in three years, give or take two" absent a policy change, with the fix requiring the deficit to fall to 3% of GDP from about 6% via spending cuts, higher tax take and lower rates

• Frames the problem as global rather than US-specific, flagging similar fiscal strain in the UK, China and Japan, which supports the case for diversifying across countries with stronger balance sheets

• Backdrop is long-end Treasury yields at multiyear highs and Japan, the largest foreign holder, selling US paper to defend the yen, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expanded long-dated buyback plan delivering only short-lived relief

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[8:20 am] ASX 200 futures are up 41 pts (+0.45%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Miners, Healthcare and Banks led Wall Street higher, but major benchmarks still finished the week lower after a violent move in bond yields

  • Last Friday: S&P 500 (+0.43%), Nasdaq (+0.43%), Dow (+0.98%), Russell 2000 (+0.85%)

  • US weekly recap: S&P 500 (-1.43%), Nasdaq (-2.05%), Dow (-0.85%), Russell 2000 (-1.65%)

• Trade talks between the US and Canada collapsed just before a midnight deadline, triggering 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods and a promise of dollar-for-dollar retaliation from Mark Carney

• Two enormous catalysts land this week, with Bessent detailing the plan to economically isolate Iran on Monday and Nvidia reporting on Wednesday ahead of Jackson Hole