ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 9th November

The live blog has wrapped up for Friday, November 6. Thanks for following along, have a good weekend and we'll catch you next week. Let us know how we can make it even better.

---

New updates

ASX 200 edges lower as ANZ drags on Financials, miners rally

[2:00 pm] The ASX 200 is down 8 pts to 9,013.0 (-0.09%), following a 0.5% fall on Friday. Financials (-1.4%) are dragging on the index after ANZ released its FY26 results. The big four bank is down 4.2% despite cash profit rising 10% to $7.59bn excluding one-offs, in line with estimates. ANZ lifted its collective provision charge 95% to $222m, with CEO Nuno Matos saying the external environment had become “even more volatile”, shaped by geopolitical tensions, energy price shocks and rapid technological change. Real Estate (-1.8%) is another laggard.

Materials (+2.6%) are leading the gainers, with spot gold up 1.4% to US$4,127/oz, silver up 2.6% to US$53/oz and copper up 1.2% to US$6.50/lb. Tech has swung from a 1.8% fall to a 0.9% rise, led by Weebit Nano (+5.6%), Audinate (+4.0%), Megaport (+3.2%) and Catapult (+3.1%).

Source: Market Index

---

China’s producer inflation hits three-year high as energy costs surge

[1:33 pm] Higher energy and commodity prices pushed Chinese factory-gate inflation to its fastest pace since mid-2022, even as consumer inflation slowed.

• PPI rose 5.7% y/y in October vs 5.3% ests, up from 5.0% in September and the fastest pace since June 2022

• CPI slowed more than expected to 0.7% y/y from 0.9%, while core CPI eased to 0.8%, matching this year’s low

• Producers’ purchase prices jumped 7.9% y/y, led by fuel and non-ferrous metals, widening the gap between input and output prices to a four-month high

• Upstream sectors including coal mining and oil and gas extraction contributed more than 6 percentage points to producer inflation

• Output prices for consumer goods extended a decline of more than three years, reflecting weak spending and intense competition that is stopping factories from passing on higher costs

Source: Bloomberg

---

Asian stocks rebound as Nvidia probe weighs on Nasdaq futures

[12:54 pm] Asian markets followed Friday’s US gains higher, though the board investigation involving Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang knocked US tech futures.

• The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.7%, led by Japan’s Topix (+3.4%), while the ASX 200 fell 0.3%

• Nasdaq 100 futures fell as much as 1% after Nvidia’s board launched its probe

• Brent crude fell 0.9% to US$97.44 a barrel after Trump reportedly said further strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” if talks progress

• The US dollar weakened against all G10 currencies, with the New Zealand dollar firming after the weekend election

• Spot gold rose 1.3% to US$4,125.80/oz

• US inflation data is due Tuesday, with traders pricing almost an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end

Source: Bloomberg

---

Nvidia board launches probe after CEO Jensen Huang admits affair with suspected spy

[12:50 pm] Nvidia’s board has launched an independent investigation after chief executive Jensen Huang admitted to a relationship with a former customer executive whom the US government suspects was recruited by a Chinese spy agency.

• Huang disclosed the relationship in a memo to staff on Sunday, having previously described it as a normal business relationship

• A committee of independent directors will investigate with outside counsel, though the board said it has no reason to believe national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised

• The woman is a former executive at Singapore-based Megaspeed, which has been accused of breaking US export rules and smuggling Nvidia chips to China

• Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon said the news highlights considerable key man risk, with Nvidia having no public succession plan or obvious heir to Huang

• A perpetual futures contract tracking Nvidia’s shares fell about 3.9% after the announcement

• President Trump said Huang should remain CEO, while House Republicans had already requested a briefing with him last week

Source: Bloomberg

---

Financials lower after ANZ releases FY26 results

[11:54 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Financials sector is 1.4% lower this morning. ANZ released its FY26 results, with cash profit up 10% to $7.59bn excluding one-offs, in line with ests, as a 7% cut in costs offset soft income growth. The bank lifted its collective provision charge 95% to $222m, with CEO Nuno Matos saying the external environment had become “even more volatile”, shaped by geopolitical tensions, energy price shocks and rapid technological change.

---

RBA’s Hunter says AI boom adding to near-term inflation pressure

[11:40 am] RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter has warned that surging AI-related investment will add to inflation in the near term, with the central bank already lifting rates five times this year to an 18-year high of 4.85%.

• AI investment is a positive demand shock that will put some upward pressure on inflation given the economy’s current supply capacity

• Data centre construction is adding to demand for already-stretched skilled trades and lifting construction costs, with pricier phones and game consoles a smaller factor

• Productivity gains should ease the inflation pressure over time, though estimates of AI’s boost to annual productivity growth range from over 2% to 0.1%

• AI has not yet affected most firms’ headcount, though there are tentative signs of weaker hiring in more AI-exposed occupations, particularly for younger workers

• Equities and corporate debt could face sharp repricing if returns on AI investment disappoint, with investors currently demanding little compensation for risk

• Risks to the AI project pipeline are balanced, Hunter said, though regulatory changes could crimp some developments

Source: Bloomberg

---

Real Estate sector reversing some gains made last week

[11:27 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate Index is down 2.3% and is falling for a second session after a 4% rise last week.

---

Codan to buy US emergency call recording firm Eventide for $244m

[11:15 am] Codan has agreed to buy US emergency call recording business Eventide through its Zetron subsidiary, extending its public safety command-and-control offering.

• The $244m enterprise value represents about 14x CY26 EBITDA, or about 10x including run-rate synergies

• Eventide is on track for CY26 revenue of about $49m and EBITDA of about $17m, a 35% margin

• Mid-single-digit EPS accretion is expected in the first full year of ownership, including synergies

• The deal will be funded from cash, debt and up to $11m in shares issued to Eventide’s managing director over three years, with Codan securing an extra $80m debt facility

• Eventide’s recorders are used in more than 4,000 US 911 call centres, and its AI analytics product is expected to add recurring revenue to Zetron’s platform

• Completion is expected in early 2027, with about $4m of integration costs in FY27

Company page: Codan (CDA)

---

Tech broadly lower after last weeks gains

[10:47 am] Tech stocks are falling this morning with the S&P/ASX 200 Information Tech Index down 1.3% after making a 10% gain last week. The index rose 10% last Thursday as NextDC surged 50% following reports Goodman Group and Digital Realty were acquiring a 9.9% stake in the company. The report was confirmed this morning in an update from Goodman Group that said the stake was bought at an average of $9.22 a share through a 50:50 joint vehicle. Neither party currently intends to make a takeover offer or control proposal, but both reserve the right to if circumstances change.

---

Gold miners catching a bid in early trade

[10:37 am] Gold miners are higher in early trade with the S&P/ASX 200 All Ords Gold Index up 1.4%, partially reversing the 2.6% drop it suffered Friday.

---

Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:22 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Materials index is up 1.8% this morning after falling 2.5% on Friday, with gold and lithium miners among the top gainers.

---

Top ASX 200 losers

[10:15 am] Leading the fallers this morning is explosives manufacturer Dyno Nobel, after releasing its FY26 results that showed group earnings fall following its exit from Fertilisers. Ventia flagged lower second-half revenue and Lendlease said the sale of its interest in a Milan development had been terminated.

---

Dyno Nobel shares fall 10% after FY26 result

[10:06 am] Dyno Nobel shares fell 10% in early trade after the explosives maker reported its FY26 result.

• Explosives underlying EBIT rose 12% to $485m, with EMEA & LATAM earnings down 40%

• Profit excluding one-off items fell 22% to $331m from $423m in FY25

• FY27 EBIT guidance of $515m to $555m is weighted about 60% to 2H due to scheduled plant turnarounds

Company page: Dyno Nobel (DNL)

---

Goodman and Digital Realty confirm 9.9% stake in NEXTDC

[9:55 am] Goodman and US data centre group Digital Realty have confirmed a jointly held 9.9% stake in NEXTDC, saying they want to work with its board on the challenges facing the company.

• NEXTDC shares jumped 50% when the stake was first announced on Thursday

• The stake was bought at an average of $9.22 a share through a 50:50 joint vehicle

• Neither party currently intends to make a takeover offer or control proposal, but both reserve the right to if circumstances change

• The pair have no agreement on further engagement beyond the stake

---

Viva Energy targets higher shop margins and flags up to $450m a year in capex

[9:41 am] Viva Energy has used its investor day to set medium-term targets for its convenience business and outline its capital plans, as it negotiates government support to keep refining at Geelong beyond 2030.

• Convenience gross margin is targeted above 40% by FY30, up from 38% in 1H26, driven by supply chain integration, range cuts and private label

• C&M operating and overhead costs are targeted below 63% of gross margin by FY30, from 67% in FY25

• Convenience sales growth is targeted at 2% to 3% above CPI a year, excluding unattended sites

• Capex of $350m to $450m a year is flagged for 2027 to 2029, excluding stockholding obligation investment and replacement of the Geelong alkylation unit

• About 100 sites will convert to an unattended format, subject to regulatory approval, while about 250 prime sites are earmarked for conversion to OTR

• Viva is negotiating new government support to keep Geelong refining beyond 2030, with refining margins expected to stay elevated in the near term after a 3Q26 margin of US$21.4/bbl

Company page: Viva Energy Group (VEA)

---

IGO’s Nova finishes above guidance as mining concludes

[9:29 am] IGO’s Nova nickel operation has wrapped up almost a decade of production ahead of its final guidance on both output and costs, ahead of its sale to Global Lithium.

• Nickel production of 21,340t from July 2025 to closure was 7% above the top of revised guidance of 19,000t to 20,000t

• Cash costs of $3.90/lb of payable nickel were 8% below the bottom of revised guidance of $4.25 to $5.00/lb

• Copper (9,517t) and cobalt (765t) also finished above the top end of revised guidance

• The sale of Nova to Global Lithium is expected to complete in the coming weeks, with the plant to be repurposed for its Manna lithium project

Company page: IGO (IGO)

---

Service Stream to buy Programmed for $975m, launches $475m raising

[9:27 am] Service Stream has agreed to buy facility management and staffing group Programmed from Persol, more than doubling its revenue base, funded by a large equity raising and new debt.

• The $975m purchase price values Programmed at 7.4x LTM EBITDA of $148m, or 6.1x including $30m of targeted cost synergies

• EPS-A accretion of more than 20% is expected on a pro forma FY27 basis including synergies, or mid single digits before synergies

• The $475m raising is priced at $2.03 a share, a 7.7% discount to the last close of $2.20, via a $219m placement and a $256m 1-for-4.9 entitlement offer

• Debt facilities have been lifted to $895m from $395m, with leverage expected at 2.2x on completion before falling to about 1.5x within 24 months

• Dividend per share will be held at FY26 levels for up to 24 months to help pay down debt

• FY27 is still expected to deliver a step change in standalone revenue and earnings growth, following a solid 1Q

Company page: Service Stream (SSM)

---

Lendlease loses $90m Milan sale and may need to fund $160m in project costs

[9:25 am] Lendlease’s planned sale of its interest in a Milan development has fallen through, removing expected cash proceeds and exposing it to further funding obligations.

• The sale of its interest in the MSG North development rights, held by the Heartbeat Fund in Milan, has been terminated

• Expected proceeds of about $90m in 1H FY27 will no longer be received

• Lendlease is likely to fund about $160m in project obligations in 1H FY27 if an alternative deal isn’t finalised by 31 December

Company page: Lendlease Group (LLC)

---

Karoon cuts Neon capex estimate as oil project moves into FEED

[9:23 am] Karoon has settled on a scaled-back, phased development plan for its Neon oil project offshore Brazil, lowering upfront costs and moving the project into front-end engineering design.

• Phase 1 capex (100%) cut to US$800m to US$950m from US$0.9bn to US$1.2bn in April 2025, a 17% reduction at the midpoint

• First oil targeted for 2030, with about 60MMbbl of Phase 1 resources and peak production of 25,000 to 30,000 bopd

• Post-tax unlevered IRR in the mid-20% range at a long-term Brent price of US$73.50/bbl, with payback within two years of first oil

• Farm-down to restart by year end, seeking a partner for a 30% to 50% stake ahead of a targeted FID in 2H27

• Subsea EPCI MoU signed with TechnipFMC and an exclusivity agreement reached with Altera over the Piranema Spirit FPSO

• Phase 1 drilling cut to three production wells from four, plus one gas injection well

Company page: Karoon Energy (KAR)

---

Smartgroup guides to CY26 NPATA of up to $94m as novated orders jump 33%

[9:19 am] Smartgroup has issued full-year earnings guidance implying solid growth, as demand for novated leases continues to run well ahead of last year.

• Novated leasing orders (ex refinanced) rose 33% y/y in the September quarter, with total settlements including refinanced vehicles up 31%

• CY26 NPATA guidance of $92m to $94m, implying 15% to 17% growth on CY25’s $80.2m

• 2H EBITDA margin is expected to be similar to 1H’s 41% as Smartgroup accelerates reinvestment in the platform

• A mid-40s EBITDA margin is targeted during 2027 as the transformation program progresses

• Novated leases under management reached a record 98,000, up 15% on the end of CY25

Company page: Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)

---

Northern Star flags KCGM at low end of guidance as mill commissioning stumbles

[9:17 am] Northern Star’s expanded KCGM processing plant has struggled through commissioning, pushing the mine towards the bottom of its production guidance, though group guidance is unchanged.

• KCGM produced 15.3koz in October from 766kt milled, below plan, as mill motor control problems and equipment rectification hit availability and throughput

• KCGM production is tracking towards the lower end of FY27 guidance of 550koz to 650koz, depending on the pace of the ramp-up

• Plant performance has improved in November month to date, with higher availability and throughput

• Mining is performing to plan, with higher-grade ROM stockpiles building to support the 2H ramp-up

• Group FY27 guidance is unchanged at 1,500koz to 1,650koz gold sold, weighted to 2H

• Hemi received its primary Federal and State environmental approvals, though secondary approvals, land access and regulatory processes are still needed before the schedule can be confirmed

Company page: Northern Star Resources (NST)

---

Ansell holds FY27 guidance as US demand drives first-quarter sales growth

[9:15 am] Ansell has reaffirmed its earnings guidance at its AGM, with strong US demand and productivity gains supporting a solid start to FY27.

• FY27 adjusted EPS guidance of US158c to US170c was maintained, with the US164c midpoint in line with US165c UBS

• 1Q constant currency sales growth was good, driven by continued strong demand in the US

• EBIT margins are trending higher on supply chain productivity and efficiency initiatives, consistent with UBS’s forecast of a 40bp lift to 15.4% in FY27

• Key input costs have eased from late FY26 peaks but remain elevated, with Ansell retaining flexibility to lift prices

• FY27 capex is still expected at US$45m to US$55m, focused on higher growth segments

Company page: Ansell (ANN)

---

Ventia flags 2H revenue decline as new CEO targets $60m in cost savings

[9:11 am] Ventia’s new chief executive Mark Ralston has unveiled a restructure to simplify the business, as weaker telecommunications and energy work weighs on second-half revenue.

• 2H FY26 revenue is expected to fall below the pcp as telecommunications and energy work is deferred, vs a 1.1% decline forecast by Canaccord in August

• Underlying NPATA growth guidance of 7% to 10% for FY26 was reaffirmed, excluding restructuring costs, in line with Canaccord’s August forecast of 8.2%

• Annualised cost savings of at least $60m are targeted by December 2027

• One-off implementation and discontinued project costs of about $30m are expected, including a restructuring provision in the FY26 result

• Operating sectors will be cut to three from 1 December: Defence and National Resilience, Energy and Digital Infrastructure, and Water, Transport and Social Infrastructure

Company page: Ventia Services Group (VNT)

---

Dyno Nobel FY27 guidance tops UBS as explosives earnings land in line

[9:07 am] Dyno Nobel’s FY26 explosives earnings matched UBS forecasts, with a record Americas result offsetting a weaker EMEA & LATAM business and FY27 guidance pitched slightly above expectations.

• Explosives underlying EBIT rose 12% to $485m in FY26, in line with $486m UBS and within the $480m to $490m guidance range

• Americas EBIT of $224m beat $215m UBS by 4%, while EMEA & LATAM EBIT of $18m fell 31% short of $26m UBS

• NPAT ex IMIs of $331m vs $318m UBS (4.1% beat), with EPS of 18.8c vs 17.8c UBS (5.6% beat)

• Final dividend of 5c, 50% franked, vs 4.4c UBS (14% beat)

• FY27 underlying EBIT guidance of $515m to $555m, with the $535m midpoint 1.7% above $526m UBS, weighted about 60% to 2H due to scheduled plant turnarounds

• The buyback ended in September after $574m was returned, preserving balance sheet capacity for energetics and potential acquisitions

Company page: Dyno Nobel (DNL)

---

EOS wins first counter-drone order from new Middle East customer

[9:03 am] Electro Optic Systems has won its first counter-drone order from the armed forces of an unnamed Middle Eastern country through its MARSS business.

• The contract is valued at US$16m (about $23m) and is expected to be substantially delivered over the next 12 months

• The order covers sensors, soft-kill effectors and command facilities built around the MARSS NiDAR C2 platform to protect strategic sites

• EOS said initial contracts have sometimes led to larger orders in other countries, though there is no guarantee this one will

Company page: Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS)

---

Southern Cross Electrical completes $70m Entire acquisition

[9:01 am] Southern Cross Electrical Engineering has completed its acquisition of Victorian fire protection and HVAC group Entire, giving it a first foothold in mechanical services.

• Upfront cash consideration of $70.0m has been paid, with the deal effective 1 November

• Entire provides fire protection and mechanical services, operating mainly in Victoria with a growing presence in Queensland

• The deal advances SCEE’s plan to build a national fire services platform and lifts its exposure to recurring maintenance revenue

Company page: Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE)

---

Metals X lodges revised offer for First Tin as bid deadline extended

[9:00 am] Metals X has submitted a revised non-binding cash offer for London-listed First Tin, with its deadline to make a firm bid pushed back to 20 November.

• The revised offer follows a preliminary non-binding cash offer in October for the First Tin shares Metals X doesn’t already own

• The UK Takeover Panel granted the extension at the request of First Tin’s independent directors

• Metals X now has until 5pm London time on 20 November to announce a firm offer or walk away

Company page: Metals X (MLX)

---

ANZ FY26 cash profit up 10% as cost cuts offset softer income

[8:57 am] ANZ’s first full year under its ANZ 2030 strategy delivered profit in line with expectations, as deeper cost cuts made up for weaker income growth and a rising collective provision charge.

• Operating income rose 1% to $22.48bn in FY26 vs $22.64bn ests (0.7% miss), with 2H26 NIM flat on 1H26 at 1.53%

• Operating expenses fell 7% to $11.07bn, 1.5% below ests, with $902m in gross cost savings beating the $875m target

• Cash profit rose 10% to $7.59bn excluding FY25 significant items, vs $7.58bn ests (0.1% beat), with cash RoTE up 109bps to 11.56%

• Final dividend of 83c, franked at 80% (up from 75%), for a full-year 166c vs 167c ests (0.6% miss)

• Impairment charge of $582m vs $620m ests, though the collective provision charge rose 95% to $222m as some customers came under pressure in 2H

• FY27 expenses expected to be flat on a pro forma FY26 base of $11.26bn, in line with $11.27bn ests, with a 4bps NIM boost from the replicating portfolio over the next 12 months

Company page: ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

---

US payrolls more than double ests as case for December Fed hike firms

[8:47 am] The US labour market strengthened across a broad range of sectors in October, bolstering the case for another Fed rate hike in December despite this week’s tech selloff.

• Payrolls rose 165,000 in October vs about 70,000 ests, with upward revisions to August and September

• Unemployment fell to 4.1%, holding at or below 4.5% for five years, the longest such stretch on record

• Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m, above forecasts, though annual wage growth of 3.1% matched the slowest pace since 2021

• Computer and electronic product manufacturers added the most jobs in four years, while nonresidential construction also grew on data centre demand

• Fitch’s Olu Sonola said labour market resilience pushes the Fed further toward a December hike, though Bloomberg Economics still expects a hold

• St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said AI investment is adding to inflation through demand for copper and other commodities

---

US launches task force to curb Iran’s land trade as blockade pressure builds

[8:47 am] The US military is extending pressure on Iran beyond its naval blockade with a new task force targeting weapons, dual-use technology and revenue flows across Iran’s land borders and the Caspian Sea.

• Task Force Iron Gate will coordinate with the Treasury, State and Justice departments and intelligence agencies, according to a US military official

• CENTCOM estimates the naval blockade has stopped more than US$25bn in Iranian crude exports

• A Reuters investigation found Iran imported at least US$2bn in hardware, explosives and heavy trucks since January 2025 via the Caspian, Central Asia and China

• Mediators have stepped up efforts to end the war amid fears it could reignite after the midterms

• Vice President JD Vance blamed the war for the Republicans’ election losses and appeared to question whether it was worth it

• US intelligence assessments suggest renewed strikes would not shift Tehran’s negotiating position or topple its government

---

Democrats target Trump tariffs, but veto maths stands in the way

[8:42 am] Democrats plan to make rolling back Trump’s tariffs an early priority when they take control of Congress in January, though they would need significant Republican support to override a presidential veto.

• Incoming Senate Finance chair Ron Wyden plans to start with Canada, where tariffs range from 15% to 50% on goods including steel, aluminium, dairy and appliances

• Democrats hold 54 Senate seats and 243 House seats on a Bloomberg tally, so a veto override would need about 13 Republican senators and almost 50 House Republicans

• Trump could announce new duties on excess industrial capacity, hitting imports from more than a dozen economies, before Democrats take control

• Support for a tough line on China remains bipartisan, with Trump due to meet Xi within weeks ahead of the January expiry of the US-China trade truce

• Toyota, Hyundai, First Solar and Hanwha Solutions rose after the election on speculation of a tariff rollback

• The broader Democratic agenda includes reversing Medicaid cuts, a $15 minimum wage, anti-price gouging laws and making large power users such as data centres bear more of grid upgrade costs

---

BNEF flags copper as the outlier in critical minerals outlook

[8:41 am] BloombergNEF’s Transition Metals Outlook 2026 shows nine of 10 energy transition materials on track for sufficient supply through 2050, with graphite, platinum and steel flipping from projected shortages to surpluses. BNEF expects long-term downward pressure on cobalt, lithium, manganese, nickel and palladium prices. Copper is the exception, with a deficit projected from 2028 that widens to 20 million tonnes by 2050, or 44% of projected demand.

Source: Bloomberg

---

AI credit stress builds as CoreWeave bond yield tops 16%

[8:38 am] Credit markets are demanding more to fund the AI buildout after the midterm results raised the prospect of data centre delays, with the sector now deeply embedded in equities, bonds and pension funds.

• CoreWeave’s 2032 bond yield climbed above 16%, and its five-year CDS hit 1,289bps on Thursday, above its October peak

• Nvidia’s CDS rose 76% in a month, Broadcom’s 49% and Amazon’s 44%, though spreads remain low in absolute terms

• Moratoriums could affect 45% of planned US data centre capacity, according to Goldman, with incoming Democratic governors in Ohio, Texas and Georgia

• Hyperscalers posted negative free cash flow in the September quarter as capex outran operating cash flow, per Goldman

• Tech firms have issued $296bn of investment-grade debt this year to 12 October, and now account for a record 19.7% of junk bond issuance

• Tech makes up nearly half the S&P 500’s value and about 44% of pension fund equity holdings, per Bloomberg analysis

---

Chipmakers lead Wall Street rebound, but AI doubts linger

[8:34 am] Dip buyers returned to technology stocks on Friday after Thursday’s rout, though strong economic data reinforced bets the Fed will raise rates in December.

• S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq 100 +1.85% and Dow -0.5% at the close

• A gauge of chip giants jumped 4.2%, with tech lifting the S&P 500 even as most of its members fell

• StoneX’s Fawad Razaqzada said the bounce looked like short covering and bargain hunting rather than a shift in sentiment, with AI regulation fears still weighing

• Goldman traders said market panic had reached levels that historically signal a strong medium-term rebound

• Microsoft is winding down a deal to rent AI computing capacity from Oracle as part of a broader review of its cloud partnerships

• Tesla is discontinuing the Cybertruck after sales fell well short of Musk’s forecasts

Source: Bloomberg

---

Strong US jobs data stalls Treasury rally and firms December hike bets

[8:34 am] Treasuries pared a steep weekly rally after October payrolls beat every forecast, with short-dated yields holding higher as traders added to bets on a December Fed rate hike.

• The US added 165,000 jobs in October, above every estimate in a Bloomberg survey, with upward revisions to August and September

• Unemployment fell to 4.1% against expectations it would hold steady, and wage growth unexpectedly accelerated

• The two-year yield rose as much as 9bps to 4.55% before easing to about 4.51%, while the 10-year added 3bps to 4.86%

• Swaps now price about 20bps of tightening for the 9 December meeting, up from 17bps on Thursday

• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the solid jobs market gives the Fed room to lift rates further

• Five-year breakeven inflation fell to about 2.3% from 2.5% a week earlier as oil slumped

Source: Bloomberg

---

Oil posts biggest weekly drop since 2022 as US-Iran talks gain traction

[8:34 am] Crude fell about 13% for the week as the Democrats’ midterm sweep raised expectations of a faster end to the Iran war and Gulf exports recovered.

• Brent settled flat at US$97.98/bbl and WTI rose 0.3% to US$90.35, with front-month futures down about 13.2% for the week

• Prices dipped intraday after Bloomberg reported the US and Iran were moving closer to a breakthrough, with Tehran showing flexibility on its nuclear program

• Prices have swung within a $19 range since Monday

• Saudi Arabia and the UAE have restored shipments to prewar levels, pushing physical crude to discounts in some markets

• Riyadh cut prices for Asian buyers to a six-year low as producers compete for market share

• Iran wants the US naval blockade lifted, sanctions eased and frozen assets released before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz

Source: Bloomberg

---

Good morning!

[8:22 am] ASX 200 futures are up 20 pts (+0.22%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street was mixed after Thursday's post midterm AI rout, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq making gains as dip buyers returned to chipmakers, though both benchmarks still finished the week lower

  • S&P 500 (+0.31%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.38%)

  • Nasdaq (+1.09%), Nasdaq 100 (+1.85%)

  • Dow (+0.46%), Russell 2000 (+0.89%)

• October payrolls more than doubled ests, pushing market-implied odds of a December Fed rate hike back above 75% ahead of Tuesday’s US CPI print

• Brent capped a steep 12% weekly fall to US$97 a barrel as Bloomberg reported the US and Iran are edging closer to a deal, with Tehran now open to discussing its nuclear program