ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 12th November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, November 12. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEDT.

---

New updates

Macquarie trims Flight Centre target on steeper second-half skew

[1:04 pm] Macquarie has trimmed its Flight Centre target after FY27 guidance leaned more heavily than usual on the second half, though it says the skew is achievable if leisure travel stays strong.

• FY27 underlying PBT guidance of $290–325m implies 4–17% growth, with the $307.5m midpoint 1% below ests

• About 69% of earnings are expected in the second half, steeper than 66% in FY24, the last year of normal travel patterns

• First-half headwinds include a $16m shift of loyalty and operating costs above the line, $6–8m of higher interest costs and a $5m Asian bad debt reversal in the prior period

• Leisure faces weak comparisons in 4Q, after war-related disruption cut 4Q26 underlying PBT to $2.4m vs $63m in 4Q24

• Corporate TTV grew 7% in constant currency in the first quarter, with the US up 15%, though first-half profit will be down on upfront investment

• EPS cut 2–3% for FY27–29, with Outperform retained and the target cut to $14.79 from $15.07

Company page: Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

---

Bernstein downgrades Nvidia as board weighs Huang’s future

[1:00 pm] Bernstein has become the latest broker to downgrade Nvidia, as the board meets to discuss Jensen Huang’s future and other AI stocks slide in after-hours trade.

• Bernstein cut Nvidia to market perform from outperform and its price target to US$200 from US$400, saying it prefers to watch from the sidelines

• Nvidia is set to fall below US$4tn in market value if its after-hours losses hold

• CoreWeave fell more than 5% after hours, with Super Micro down more than 4% and Intel and Dell down 3%, while AMD and Broadcom gained

• Asian markets were mixed, with the MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% on gains in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, while the Hang Seng fell 1% and the ASX 200 0.4%

• Miller Tabak’s Matt Maley said Huang will be lucky to survive the week, and that Nvidia’s role as a major financier of the AI industry is his biggest worry

Source: Bloomberg

---

Macquarie picks JB Hi-Fi and Universal Store as Black November winners

[12:59 pm] Macquarie says November has become the biggest spending month of the year as Black Friday sales stretch across the whole month, making execution and margins critical for retailers facing a value-focused consumer.

• November made up 9.2% of annual spending in 2025, up about 1 percentage point since 2023, according to its card spending data

• Industry forecasts point to sales growth of about 5.5–7% over the period, above the 5.4% annual retail growth recorded to September

• Consumer electronics sees the biggest lift in wallet share, followed by furniture, apparel, household appliances and cosmetics, while groceries, alcohol and pharmacy lose share

• Online, led by Amazon, also gains share, a headwind for local retailers

• Winning retailers need exposure to the right categories, strong execution and supplier-funded promotions

• JB Hi-Fi is the large-cap pick, while Universal Store is best exposed to apparel and is still opening new stores into Christmas

---

Capability X jumps 33% on ASX debut

[12:25 pm] Industrial AI safety company Capability X is trading at 26.5 cents after listing on the ASX at midday, a 32.5% premium to its 20 cent IPO price.

• Capability X raised $12m through the issue of 60 million shares at 20c

• Its Edge AI system, which runs on site rather than in the cloud, creates a live digital model of industrial sites to track people and machinery and warn of danger before incidents occur

• The system is already generating recurring revenue in hazardous operations, with oil and gas, ports and logistics, mining and defence as its target markets

• Frost and Sullivan has sized its addressable market at more than $280bn a year, assuming full penetration

Company page: Capability X (CX8)

---

Paladin launches $525m raising at 10.3% discount

[12:21 pm] Paladin Energy is raising $525 million to fund early works at its Patterson Lake South uranium project in Canada and step up exploration across the Athabasca Basin.

The stock was halted prior to market open today, with the equity raising announced at 11:29 am.

• Paladin is raising $474m through an institutional placement and C$50m (about $51m) through a Canadian bought deal, both fully underwritten

• The $7.80 offer price is a 10.3% discount to the last close of $8.70

• A non-underwritten SPP will seek up to a further $50m at the same price, with eligible shareholders able to apply for up to $30,000

• Proceeds will fund CY27 and CY28 capital works at Patterson Lake South, a potential mine life extension at the Triple R deposit, drilling at Atlas and Saloon East, and repayment of existing debt

• CEO Paul Hemburrow said the capital helps maintain momentum towards targeted first production in 2031

• Shares are in a trading halt until the placement completes on 13 November

Company page: Paladin Energy (PDN)

---

BHP names Adrian Wood as next CFO

[11:58 am] BHP has named Adrian Wood to replace CFO Vandita Pant when she steps down in February, the second senior executive to leave since Brandon Craig became CEO in March.

• Wood joined BHP in 2015 and is vice president of projects for Minerals Australia, after earlier finance and investor relations roles

• He was previously a mining and oil and gas analyst at Macquarie and UBS

• Pant will step down on 16 February after less than three years as CFO, having replaced David Lamont in 2024

• Chief commercial officer Rag Udd will also leave at the end of January, after a months-long standoff with China’s state-backed iron ore buyer that was settled in April

• Wood takes over as BHP funds its copper expansions and its Jansen potash project in Canada, due to start next year after cost blowouts

Source: Bloomberg

---

GQG extends slide after FUM update rout

[11:54 am] GQG Partners is down another 6.4% to 73 cents, extending Wednesday’s 19.5% plunge after its October update showed heavier outflows and a big hit from investment performance. The stock is now down 42.5% in the last twelve months.

• FUM fell 11.8% month-on-month to US$131.6bn at 31 October, from US$149.2bn at the end of September

• Net outflows of US$6.7bn were almost triple September’s US$2.3bn, led by Emerging Markets (US$3.2bn) and International (US$2.2bn)

• Investment performance wiped US$11.0bn off FUM after Rajiv Jain rotated into tech in July, shortly before AI stocks sold off

• Year-to-date net outflows reached US$32.9bn, with FUM now down 24% from its US$172.9bn peak in February

• Jarden cut its price target 17% to $1.25, while Barrenjoey slashed its target 58% to 80c

Company page: GQG Partners (GQG)

---

Aristocrat earnings call highlights

[11:52 am] Aristocrat management backed its gaming pipeline and US$1 billion interactive target on the FY26 results call, while explaining why CEO Trevor Croker is stepping down now. The stock is down 6.5% at the time of writing to $61.56.

• On the gaming pipeline: “We believe we have got the strongest planned pipeline that we have had for years... We feel confident that operators still have the capacity on their floors for high-performing product”

• On fee per day: “3% sequential fee per day growth is a very good outcome when you are installing nearly 6,500 incremental units... I do not think you should be continuing to expect to appreciate fee per day on an ongoing basis”

• On the US$1bn interactive target: “The three buckets that are going to drive the growth towards $1 billion is iLottery and iLottery growth, the content growth, and then platforms... we don’t rely on new markets necessarily to grow significantly in iLottery, but they will help accelerate”

• On interactive share vs revenue: “I do not think you can draw a parallel between market share and revenues. What you have got to look at there is mix”

• On the $100m cost-out: “Our commitment is to drive $100 million worth of cost out of the FY27 numbers, to give us the opportunity to reinvest... a lot of that will fall through, but we will actually reinvest as appropriate as we go into FY27 and beyond”

• On the CEO handover: “Timing is everything in life, and the company is in great shape... It is always good to know when it is time to go”

Company page: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

---

ASIC sues CBA over $8.5m business fee overcharging

[10:55 am] ASIC has launched civil penalty proceedings against CBA, alleging its CommBiz platform overcharged about 42,000 business customers $8.5 million in fees they weren’t told about.

• The overcharging ran from November 2020 to the end of May 2025, with terms and conditions failing to clearly outline fees on certain payments, ASIC said

• ASIC said CBA received complaints as far back as 2015, and a 2016 internal audit identified overcharging on direct debit fees

• CBA said it does not accept the way some allegations have been framed and expects to defend parts of the claim

• CBA self-identified the issue and has completed remediation for affected customers

Source: Bloomberg

---

Nvidia tumbles after hours as board weighs Huang’s removal

[10:55 am] Nvidia shares fell about 10% in after-hours trade after a Wall Street Journal report said its board could meet as soon as Wednesday to discuss removing CEO Jensen Huang, dragging US futures lower.

• Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.8% and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.4%

• The report said the board may discuss Huang’s possible ouster over alleged multiple extramarital affairs, including one with a woman reportedly suspected of being a Chinese spy

---

Macquarie cuts PEXA target after guidance downgrade

[10:54 am] Macquarie has cut its PEXA target by 11% after the property settlement platform downgraded FY27 guidance on a sharp slowdown in Australian property transfers.

• FY27 revenue guidance cut to $355–380m from $385–415m

• Core NPAT guidance cut to a range of a $6m loss to a $6m profit, from $5–20m

• Transfer activity fell 26% on the prior corresponding period in October, worse than a 15% fall in the September quarter, while refinancing improved to flat

• NPATA forecasts cut 22% in FY27, 12% in FY28 and 8% in FY29 on weaker Australian and UK volumes

• UK valuation lowered to $2.70 a share, with assumed market share cut to 60% from 85%, and the first UK sale and purchase transaction expected by March 2027

• Outperform retained, with the target cut to $12.35 from $13.90 on expectations that the roughly 20% price cuts flagged in the NSW pricing regulator’s (IPART) review will be partly or fully walked back or offset by other revenue

Company page: PEXA Group (PXA)

---

ASX 200 lower as higher yields and dollar weigh

[10:48 am] A wobbly start for the ASX 200, down 42 pts (-0.46%) in early trade as a rebound in yields and breakout for the US dollar weighs on miners, retailers and REITs. On the flip side, Tech is surging (dare I say looking quite bullish) off the back of the Xero result. A long list of names like Wisetech, Pro Medicus, Siteminder, Catapult and more, are starting to push out to recent trading ranges.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

---

Macquarie trims CBA dividend forecasts on thinner capital buffer

[10:43 am] Macquarie has cut its CBA dividend forecasts after a broadly in-line 1Q27 update left the bank with a thinner capital buffer.

• Pre-provision earnings of about $4.3bn were 1% below ests, with weaker markets income dragging on about 3% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth

• Cash earnings missed consensus by about 2% on higher impairments, as CBA lifted provision coverage on rising arrears and non-performing loans

• CET1 ratio of about 11.5%, with potential asset sales able to release up to about 100bp of capital

• Margins are expected to fall 1–2bp in 2Q27, as the boost from recent rate rises was front-loaded into 1Q27

• DPS forecasts cut 3–4% for FY27–29, with EPS trimmed by less than 1%

• Underperform rating and $112 target retained, with CBA trading at about 3.5x book value and a 35–60% premium to peers

Company page: Commonwealth Bank (CBA)

---

Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:24 am] Xero surges on its interim result, Domino's bounces from Wednesday's pullback and a broad mix of tech, telcos and healthcare stocks catch a bid.

---

Top ASX 200 losers

[10:24 am] Gold and lithium stocks are trading broadly lower after a weak overnight session for commodity prices, while GQG continues to spiral lower after yesterday's October FUM update.

---

Computershare lifts margin income guidance at AGM

[9:58 am] Computershare has lifted its FY27 margin income guidance by US$35 million on higher interest rates, with year-to-date trading running ahead of expectations.

• Margin income guidance upgraded to US$805m, up US$35m on its August guidance

• Management EPS guidance affirmed at about 154 US cents, up 6%, with management calling it conservative and a further update due in February

• EBIT excluding margin income is on track to grow about 3.5% in FY27, with margins expected to reach 19%

• Corporate actions activity lifted Issuer Services revenue and margin income, though that pipeline is now moderating

• Employee share plan trading is up on last year, supported by growth in assets under administration

Company page: Computershare (CPU)

---

Regal Partners flags thin second-half performance fees

[9:56 am] Regal Partners’ performance fees have dried up in the second half of 2026, with tougher markets and weaker fund returns leaving it expecting little beyond what it has already banked this year.

• Performance fees of $4m crystallised from 1 July to 31 October, vs $118.7m in 1H26

• CY26 performance fees will be at least $122.7m, with Regal not expecting any further 2H26 fees to be material

• Other income is expected to have no material impact on CY26 normalised NPAT, after a fall in the share price of Regal Asian Investments (RG8) weighed in 2H26

• Net inflows of $0.1bn in October took inflows for the first 10 months of 2026 to $2.2bn, after 12 straight quarters of positive net flows

Company page: Regal Partners (RPL)

---

G8 Education receives 26c takeover proposal at 160% premium

[9:49 am] Childcare operator G8 Education has given Melbourne investment manager Majority Capital Partners up to six weeks of exclusive due diligence after receiving a 26 cent a share takeover proposal.

• The non-binding proposal is a 160% premium to G8’s last close of 10 cents

• Shareholders could elect to take part of their consideration in shares of a new holding company, with the rest in cash

• Majority Capital Partners has bank and equity commitment letters covering the full consideration

• The first three weeks of exclusivity are a hard period, in which G8 can’t engage with rival bidders even on fiduciary grounds

• G8 directors intend to unanimously recommend the scheme, subject to a binding deal at 26c or more, no superior proposal and an independent expert backing it

A 160% premium sounds massive, particularly after the run of child safety scandals, criminal and regulatory charges, heavy financial losses and mass centre closures G8 has faced. But the stock was also trading above $1 just two years ago, and as high as about $5 back in 2014.

Company page: G8 Education (GEM)

---

Nvidia slides after hours on new Jensen Huang allegations

[9:47 am] Nvidia shares fell in after-hours trade after a report alleged CEO Jensen Huang had an extramarital relationship with a senior executive who reports to him, adding to the board’s existing probe into his ties to a suspected Chinese spy.

• Nvidia fell 8.2% to US$159.42 in after-hours trading, after closing up 2.9% at US$173.73

• The report alleges Huang had a relationship with Kimberly Powell, Nvidia’s vice president of healthcare, citing five people who worked at the company

• The pair were allegedly seen being affectionate at a San Jose hotel during Nvidia’s GTC conference in March, with company security said to have offered a bystander who filmed it a nondisclosure agreement

---

GrainCorp profit slides but flags better FY27 margins

[9:45 am] GrainCorp delivered FY26 earnings in line with guidance after low global grain prices and slower grower selling hit East Coast margins, though it expects export and crush margins to improve in FY27.

• East Coast grain handled down 9% to 28.6mmt, with exports down 16% to 5.9mmt

  • Agribusiness down 28% to $156m on lower grain margins and volumes

  • Nutrition and Energy down 18% to $96m on softer demand for bulk edible oils

• Underlying EBITDA down 28% to $223m

• Underlying NPAT down 64% to $31m

• Statutory net loss of $10m vs a $40m profit in FY25

• Fully franked final dividend of 14cps, taking FY26 to 28cps, matching FY25’s ordinary payout but with no repeat of last year’s 20cps special

• Core cash fell to $171m from $321m in FY25

• ABARES, the federal government’s farm forecaster, expects a 26.6mmt East Coast winter crop for 2026-27, with GrainCorp to give FY27 guidance at its February 2027 AGM

Company page: GrainCorp (GNC)

---

GrainCorp CEO Robert Spurway to step down

[9:44 am] GrainCorp has begun searching for a new CEO, with Robert Spurway to stay on until a successor is found after almost seven years in the role.

• Spurway will keep leading GrainCorp while the board runs a full search for his replacement

• GrainCorp has delivered total shareholder returns of 201% since Spurway took over, vs 110% for the ASX 200 over the same period

• Spurway joined in 2020 after the demerger of the Malt business and during a long drought

Company page: GrainCorp (GNC)

---

AUB lifts bottom end of FY27 profit guidance

[9:42 am] Insurance broking group AUB has lifted the bottom end of its FY27 profit guidance after a positive start to the year, while reworking executive pay following feedback from shareholders and proxy advisers.

• FY27 underlying NPAT guidance lifted to $250–265m from $245–265m, with the $257.5m midpoint implying about 14.6% growth on FY26

• No CEO long-term incentive grant was put to the AGM as the board reviews the framework, with the FY27 award to go to a general meeting expected in March 2027

• The board said the long-term incentive will keep a capital discipline measure and that it does not intend to lower existing EPS growth hurdles

• AUB will formally share its capital management approach with investors and disclose short-term incentive targets and results in future remuneration reports

• Talks with the EQT and CVC consortium ended without a deal after due diligence, with the board backing AUB’s standalone strategy

Company page: AUB Group (AUB)

---

Wagners guides to 10% FY27 earnings growth

[9:41 am] Construction materials and composites group Wagners expects FY27 earnings to rise about 10%, as South-East Queensland’s infrastructure pipeline ahead of Brisbane 2032 keeps demand strong.

• FY27 EBIT guidance of $72–76m, with the $74m midpoint 10% above FY26 operating EBIT of $67m

• H1 FY27 EBIT expected at $40–42m, implying second-half EBIT of $32–34m

• Guidance includes up to $5m of higher imported clinker and shipping costs in cement, plus up to $3m from the usual seasonal fall in second-half volumes

• Utility pole demand is expected to soften in H2 FY27 as some customers work through high inventory levels

• Wagners plans a three-year capital investment program, with 10 concrete plants operating, five more secured or in approval and three greenfield quarries under investigation

• An eighth pultrusion machine will be installed in Toowoomba in early 2027, after new machines at Wellcamp and in Texas lifted utility pole capacity

Company page: Wagners (WGN)

---

Aristocrat FY26 in line as currency trims growth

[9:37 am] Aristocrat’s FY26 earnings landed in line with ests, with currency movements cutting 10% constant currency NPATA growth to 2% on a reported basis.

• Revenue down 3% to $6.09bn vs $6.12bn ests (in line), or up 4% in constant currency

• EBITA up 0.1% to $2.24bn vs $2.22bn ests (1% beat), with margin up 1.2 points to 36.7%

• Normalised NPATA up 2% to $1.58bn vs $1.59bn ests (in line)

• EPSA up 5% to 259.3c vs 261c ests (in line)

• Total dividend up 9% to 101.0cps

• About $1.9bn returned to shareholders through dividends and on-market buybacks

• Aristocrat expects NPATA growth in FY27 in constant currency, with Aristocrat Interactive tracking toward its US$1bn FY29 revenue target

Company page: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

---

Inghams trims guidance but secures Woolworths deal

[9:34 am] Inghams has cut the top end of its FY27 earnings guidance by $10 million, as higher feed, labour and freight costs and weaker wholesale chicken prices outweighed solid volume growth.

• In-principle agreement reached with Woolworths on a new long-term supply deal running beyond 2030, with CEO Ed Alexander saying the company is pleased with the agreed volumes and terms, which remain confidential

• Core poultry volumes up 5.3% over the first 18 weeks of FY27, with Australia up 4.8% and New Zealand up 8.0%, led by retail

• Australian core poultry pricing up 1.9%, while wholesale pricing fell 8.3% on softer out-of-home demand and excess market supply

• FY27 underlying EBIT guidance cut to $155–170m from $155–180m

• FY27 underlying EBITDA (pre AASB 16) guidance cut to $190–210m from $190–220m, with the $200m midpoint 8% below ests

• Guidance assumes $40–50m of higher feed costs and $30m of extra transport and packaging costs tied to the Middle East conflict, with earnings heavily weighted to the second half

While FY27 guidance came in below ests, the Woolworths agreement could be a big deal. Woolworths was Inghams’ largest poultry supply partner at the FY24 result, and Morningstar has estimated its top five customers make up roughly 60% of total sales. Inghams shares fell almost 20% at that FY24 result (23-Aug-24) when it disclosed a phased reduction in annual volumes from Woolworths, though other factors were also at play. The FY25 result (22-Aug-25) brought another 20% fall after Australian core poultry volumes dropped 2.5%, largely due to the step-down in Woolworths orders. The agreed volumes and terms remain confidential, but with Woolworths locked in beyond 2030, investors may be willing to look through the softer guidance.

Company page: Inghams Group (ING)

---

Aristocrat names Dafne Guisard to replace Trevor Croker as CEO

[9:30 am] Aristocrat CEO Trevor Croker will retire in April after more than a decade in the role, with former Entain chief operating officer Dafne Guisard named as his successor.

• Guisard joined Aristocrat in early 2026 as Chief Commercial Officer for EMEA and also runs Product Madness, its mobile games business

• She was previously chief operating officer of Entain and held senior roles at Kraft Heinz and Anheuser-Busch InBev

• Croker will stay on for 12 months to support the handover, with Guisard relocating to Las Vegas from London, subject to regulatory pre-approvals

• Aristocrat’s market cap grew fourfold to almost $40bn under Croker, with earnings per share before acquired amortisation growing 15% a year

Company page: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

---

COSOL flags EBITDA lift and wins $11m US transit contract

[9:26 am] Asset management software and services firm COSOL expects first-half earnings to improve on flat revenue as an internal cost-cutting reset takes hold, and has won an $11 million contract with a US transit authority.

• H1 FY27 revenue expected to be in line with H1 FY26

• Statutory EBITDA expected at $3.3–3.6m, about $0.7m higher than H1 FY26

• Underlying EBITDA expected at $3.6–3.9m, excluding about $0.3m of restructuring costs

• 10-year contract with Spokane Transit Authority, won with IBM, is worth about $11m to COSOL, including $3.7m of implementation work across FY27 and FY28

• Interim CEO Anthony Stokes said COSOL is targeting a 150 basis point lift in operating margins in its Australian consulting business as higher-margin AI and IP-driven revenue flows through

• COSOL is targeting a return to dividends after H1 FY28, payable in H2 FY28

Company page: COSOL (COS)

---

Talga anode delivers 5x battery life in KRI tests

[9:22 am] Talga’s Swedish-made natural graphite anode has been used in a Japanese ultra-long-life battery that lasts about five times longer than a standard lithium-ion cell, with samples now out for customer testing.

• KRI’s cells using Talga’s Talnode-C anode achieved more than 8,000 cycles to 75% capacity retention, vs about 1,600 for a conventional lithium-ion cell

• KRI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Osaka Gas with 30 years of battery research, and tests materials from a range of suppliers on a neutral basis

• Sample cells are now with KRI’s customers for evaluation, with mass production targeted for 2030

• The cells could support about 1 million km of cumulative electric vehicle driving range, with fleet, robotaxi and battery energy storage seen as the main uses

Company page: Talga Group (TLG)

---

Orica beats on highest earnings in 15 years

[9:19 am] Orica beat UBS estimates with its highest earnings in more than 15 years, as its higher-growth Digital Solutions and Specialty Mining Chemicals units grew to nearly 23% of group earnings.

• Revenue up 1% to $8.26bn vs $8.20bn ests (1% beat)

  • Blasting Solutions EBIT up 2% to $880.9m vs $869m ests (1% beat)

  • Digital Solutions EBIT up 25% to $115m vs $107m ests (7% beat)

  • Specialty Mining Chemicals EBIT up 25% to $126.3m vs $124m ests (2% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 9% to $589.7m vs $585m ests (1% beat)

• Underlying EPS up 13% to 126.8c vs 118.1c ests (7% beat)

• Net operating cash flow down 20% to $758.3m vs $569m ests (33% beat), after $344.2m of outflows tied to significant items

• Unfranked final dividend up 11% to 35.5cps vs 34.9cps ests (2% beat)

• Orica expects earnings growth in all three segments in FY27, partly offset by lower Indonesian thermal coal demand and planned plant shutdowns for maintenance at Kooragang Island, Yarwun and Winnemucca

• FY27 capex guidance of $470–500m excludes about $130m for the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, with net finance costs expected to rise by $25–35m

Company page: Orica (ORI)

---

Xero lifts guidance and unveils $1bn buyback

[9:11 am] Xero has announced an on-market buyback of up to $1 billion and lifted its FY27 revenue guidance, as stronger payments growth at US acquisition Melio and a weaker Kiwi dollar offset an 86% drop in statutory profit.

• Revenue up 46% to NZ$1.75bn vs NZ$1.75bn ests (in line), or 27% on a pro-forma basis

• Subscribers up 12% to 5.15m vs 5.14m ests (in line), with net additions up 28% to 226,000

• Adjusted EBITDA up 3% to NZ$362m vs NZ$371m ests (3% miss), or up 23% on a pro-forma basis

• NPAT down 86% to NZ$18.5m vs NZ$56m ests (67% miss), reflecting a full half of loss-making Melio

• Adjusted NPATA down 34% to NZ$81.1m vs NZ$65m ests (25% beat)

  • Results are hard to compare because Melio, the loss-making US payments business Xero bought in 2H26, isn’t in the prior-period figures.

• On-market buyback of up to $1bn over 12 months, on top of a recently completed $550m program, with the board saying the share price doesn’t reflect Xero’s long-term value

• FY27 revenue guidance lifted to NZ$3.77–3.83bn from NZ$3.62–3.73bn, with the NZ$3.80bn midpoint 3% above ests

• FY27 adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed to NZ$880–920m from NZ$860–920m, with the NZ$900m midpoint in line with ests

• FY28 revenue is now expected to exceed NZ$4.6bn excluding synergies, 3% above ests of NZ$4.46bn

The results reiterate why Xero's been punished so hard in recent times (down 49% in the last twelve months). The company massively overpaid for the Melio acquisition, where Xero raised $1.85 billion at $176 per share (vs. $70.86 today), resulting in an equity dilution of approximately 10%. A new US$400 million credit facility was also used to fund approximately 16% of the US$2.5 billion upfront purchase price. So Xero effectively paid pre-Saaspocalypse valuations, for a business that was unprofitable at the time of the deal, with lower-margin payment transactions (~19% gross margins vs. Xero's core ~89%).

Company page: Xero (XRO)

---

Rio Tinto shortlists five bidders for $7bn power assets

[9:03 am] Rio Tinto has shortlisted five bidders for its Pilbara and Canadian energy infrastructure, with binding offers due in the first week of December for assets expected to fetch at least $7 billion, the AFR reports.

• Blackstone and Ares Management are the only bidders seeking the whole portfolio, with all known parties bidding on their own

• Brookfield is focused on the Canadian assets, which include the Kemano Generating Station and other infrastructure behind Rio’s Canadian iron ore operations

• BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners and IFM Investors are targeting the Australian assets, including more than 500MW of power plants supplying Rio’s Pilbara iron ore operations

• Apollo and KKR are understood to have exited the process

• Rio told shareholders last year it would free up US$5–10bn of capital for higher-return opportunities, and has since agreed to sell its Dampier desalination plant and sold land in British Columbia

Source: AFR

---

US dollar breaks out to highest since April 2025

[9:01 am] The US dollar index rose 0.68% overnight to 102.91, breaking out of its recent trading range to trade at the highest since April 2025. A stronger US dollar tends to put downward pressure on both equity and commodity markets.

US Dollar Index (Source: TradingView)

---

LME aluminium faces biggest squeeze in decades

[8:55 am] LME aluminium spot prices hit a record premium to futures, as warehouse stocks fell to their lowest since 1990 and two traders came to control most of the remaining metal.

• Spot aluminium traded US$147 a tonne above three-month futures, the highest in more than 30 years of data, after sitting at a discount in mid-October

• Two entities held long positions equal to 60–80% of readily available LME stocks as of Monday

• Middle East war disruptions, China’s production cap and trade barriers are limiting supply, while surging Indonesian output isn’t yet registered for LME delivery

• The futures curve is in backwardation out to 2028, meaning near-dated metal costs more than later contracts

• All other LME base metals rose, with copper up 1% to US$13,817 a tonne

Source: Bloomberg

---

US 2-year yield surges after hot CPI

[8:54 am] The US Treasury market was shut for Veterans Day, but the 2-year yield has still soared 27 bps int he past three sessions, with 18 bps coming after Tuesday's hotter-than-expected October CPI print.

• Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October vs 0.3% ests, while core CPI rose 0.3% vs 0.2% ests, with no annual figures published because data from October 2025 is missing due to the government shutdown

• Food prices rose 0.5% after a flat September, while energy slowed to 0.7% from 5.2%

So just as yields started to roll over from late-September peaks (2-year down 46 bps between 28-Sep and 5-Nov), the short-end is now experiencing a vertical bounce on more hawkish Fed expectations.

US 2-year yield chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Wall Street lifts Fed hike bets after third hot inflation print

[8:50 am] Wall Street economists are penciling in more Fed rate hikes after a third straight month of hot inflation data, with Bank of America calling October’s hold a policy mistake.

• Fed governor Christopher Waller has put a 50bp hike on the table for December

• BofA is sticking with a 25bp December hike but sees a rising risk of another in January rather than March, saying the Fed is falling behind the curve

• Goldman Sachs’ David Mericle forecasts a third hike in March, saying October’s upside surprises can’t be fully explained by the Iran war energy shock

• JPMorgan Asset Management’s David Kelly said a 50bp hike next month is not needed

• The US 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.99% with cash trading shut for Veterans Day, while the US dollar hit its highest since May 2025

---

Oil rebounds as Iran rejects giving up enriched uranium

[8:46 am] Oil snapped a two-day losing streak overnight after a senior Iranian official rejected giving up enriched uranium, a sign US-Iran peace talks remain stalled.

• Brent up 0.7% to US$92.67

• Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi asked the UN and its nuclear watchdog to condemn a US reward of up to US$20m for information on Tehran’s nuclear program

• The US said Iran has enriched uranium to 60% and that the watchdog’s lack of access makes the program’s status hard to assess

• European gas futures rose 2.4% to €86.78/MWh as tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued and Iran denied ongoing talks with the US

• The war has taken nearly a fifth of global LNG exports off the market, and Poland’s Orlen ended a long-term contract with QatarEnergy over missed deliveries

Brent crude chart (Source: TradingView)

---

European stocks hit record high as energy and tech rebound

[8:46 am] The Stoxx 600 closed at a record high above its August peak, as Europe’s light tech weighting and falling oil prices shielded it from the AI selloff.

• The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.7% to 663.05 and is up 2.7% since the US midterms, vs a 0.5% gain for the S&P 500

• Tech makes up less than 9% of the Stoxx 600, vs 42% of the S&P 500

• Societe Generale said the post-midterms rally looks stretched, as investors reprice geopolitical risk and move beyond the AI trade

Source: Bloomberg

---

Congress threatens to subpoena Nvidia’s Jensen Huang

[8:45 am] Two senior House Republicans said they are ready to subpoena Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang over his affair with an alleged Chinese spy, after the scandal wiped about US$430 billion off the chipmaker’s value in two sessions.

• China committee chair John Moolenaar gave Huang until the end of Wednesday to agree to a closed-door briefing, and Foreign Affairs chair Brian Mast said a subpoena is ready if he doesn’t respond

• Alice Huang was an executive at Megaspeed, Nvidia’s largest Southeast Asian customer, which is under US investigation over possible chip smuggling. Both companies deny wrongdoing

• Nvidia’s board is investigating whether Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort, and Republican Senator Kevin Cramer has called for him to resign

• Baird downgraded Nvidia to neutral and cut its price target to US$200 from US$500, while Morgan Stanley removed it as a Top Pick

• The shares rose ~3% overnight after falling ~10% over the previous two days

• Lawmakers are pushing to add chip export controls to defence legislation that must pass by year-end, with Moolenaar saying Nvidia has lost credibility in the debate

---

Anthropic’s IPO draws multiple times the demand

[8:45 am] Anthropic’s IPO is several times oversubscribed and on track to be the biggest listing ever, though history shows packed order books have been a poor guide to returns a year out.

• Anthropic and its co-founders are raising up to about US$90bn at a targeted US$1.4tn valuation

• Pricing is expected on 18 November with trading as soon as 19 November, and the FT reported bankers expect to price above the US$70–78 range, lifting the valuation to US$1.5tn or more

• Of 12 oversubscribed IPOs tracked by Yahoo Finance, Arm was up 147% a year after its first trade, while Facebook fell 39% and Rivian 69%

• Since 1980, US IPOs priced above their range have gained 50% on day one on average, vs 12% within the range and 3% below, according to University of Florida’s Jay Ritter

• IPOs from 1980 to 2024 returned about 6% in their first year on average, vs about 11% for similar-sized companies

Source: Yahoo Finance

---

Analysts cut 2027 S&P 500 profit forecasts after blowout quarter

[8:45 am] Wall Street analysts have trimmed 2027 S&P 500 profit forecasts for four straight weeks, as fears that Democrats’ midterm sweep will delay AI spending outweigh a blowout third-quarter season.

• S&P 500 profits are now forecast to grow 20% in 2027, down from 30% growth expected this year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence

• 3Q EPS growth reached 33%, up from 32% in 2Q, with every sector beating pre-season expectations and more than 80% of the index reported

• BofA said a 20% cut to AI capex could reduce S&P 500 EPS by up to 8%, and analyst Vivek Arya said estimates could be cut further in 1Q27 if policy changes hit spending

• Citi’s Atif Malik said permitting delays, local opposition to data centres and caution around neoclouds may slow new developments

• Nvidia reports next week, with Malik saying the main risk is 2028 order visibility, as 2027 demand appears largely committed

• Consumer company estimates for 2027 have lagged the broader market, with BofA saying the boost from tariff refunds has mostly faded and Walmart and Target due next week

Source: Bloomberg

---

Nasdaq rallies as CoreWeave revives the AI trade

[8:43 am] The Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.0% overnight and is on track for its best week since May, after CoreWeave’s upbeat outlook and a US$10 billion revenue quarter from OpenAI eased fears over AI spending.

• The S&P 500 rose 1.3% to 7,619 and the Dow added 0.5% to 52,491

• The rebound follows a 4.4% plunge last Thursday, the S&P 500’s biggest one-day fall since the 2025 trade war, on fears Democrats’ midterm sweep will bring tougher AI regulation

• CoreWeave jumped 24.7% after the AI cloud provider said it expects an adjusted profit in 1H28, with peers Nebius up 15.4% and Applied Digital up 7.4%

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor index rose 5.7% to its highest close since 3 November, with every member higher

• Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said about 95% of the correction has already happened and he is confident the AI build-out will continue

---

Good morning!

[8:29 am] ASX 200 futures are down 33 pts (-0.36%). Here's what happened overnight:

• A chip-led rebound lifted Wall Street as CoreWeave's upbeat outlook revived the AI trade, while Microsoft slipped on Anthropic's push into office software

  • S&P 500 (+1.31%), now up 3.6% in the last four sessions

  • Nasdaq (+1.60%), up 4.7% in the last four sessions, recovering almost the entirety of the 5-Nov selloff where it tumbled 5.5%

  • Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.81%) is within 0.3% of all-time highs

  • Dow (+0.49%), Russell 2000 (+0.88%)

• Rate-hike nerves lingered with US cash bonds shut for Veterans Day, leaving the 10-year yield near 5% and economists adding to Fed hike calls

• Oil snapped a two-day slide as US-Iran peace efforts showed little progress, while European shares closed at a record