ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 13th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, August 13. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

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New updates

ASX 200 off lows as Utilities soar, Telstra tumbles and miners slip

[2:25 pm] That's a wrap! The S&P/ASX 200 is down 38 pts (0.4%) but off session lows of (0.74%). The market continues to pull back from the 6 August record high, while sector performance remains volatile off the back of reporting season.

Some of today's key movers include:

• ASX (+13.0%): The stock opened just 3.5% higher, so a massive intraday rally. The FY26 result was fairly in-line (most metrics 1-2% ahead), while the FY27 guidance reaffirmed total expense growth of 18-21% and $180-200m capex. UBS modelling (Jun-26) had FY27 total expense growth at 19.6%, so perhaps the stock is rallying on the back of a better-than-feared cost outcome? The outlook for FY27 also remains positive off the back of strong listings activity.

• Origin Energy (+5.0%): AGL (yest) and Origin have both soared on FY26 results. Origin eked out a small FY26 beat while its FY27 Energy Markets guidance of $1.55-1.85bn was 5.5% ahead of consensus at the midpoint, according to UBS.

• Treasury Wine (+4.5%): TWE has been quite the recovery play, having announced several positive updates since the February half-year result. The stock is up 70.6% since the 26 March low. Today's FY26 result contained few surprises, since TWE announced unaudited FY26 EBIT just three days prior.

• Telstra (-4.3%): Suffered quite an aggressive intraday selloff after opening just 1% lower. Macquarie analysts note that the FY27 cash earnings guidance of $4.75-4.95bn is a downgrade relative to consensus, despite the higher FY26 dividend and further $1bn share buyback.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Bravura surges to highest since February 2020

[2:13 pm] Bravura Solutions reported its FY26 result on Wednesday, with the stock surging 12.5% to $3.14. It's up another 11.3% to $3.50, the highest since February 2020.

The result was a clean across FY26 and FY27 guidance, including:

• Underlying revenue up 9.6% to $283.6m vs $283.0m ests (in line)

• Underlying NPAT up 63% to $63.1m vs $54.4m ests (16% beat)

• Final dividend of $0.15 per share unfranked, comprising an 8.31c ordinary and 6.69c special dividend

• Launching an on-market buyback of up to $50m over 12 months from 31 August

• FY27 revenue guided to $280-300m vs $289.6m ests (in line at midpoint) and cash EBITDA to $84-94m vs $89.9m ests (in line at midpoint)

This is one of my favourite charts from the FY26 results presentation.

Source: Bravura Solutions FY26 results presentation

The stock has received some fairly aggressive broker target price upgrades today, including:

• Macquarie raised target by 41% to $3.30

• Shaw & Partners raised target by 32% to $3.30

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ASX flags a heavy FY27 cost and capex build as tech modernisation and Accelerate roll on

[1:49 pm] Management reconfirmed steep FY27 expense growth at the earnings call, and a lower dividend payout to fund the transformation, while pointing to strong early-FY27 listings and trading momentum

• On FY27 expense guidance: "Total expense growth is expected to be between 18% and 21%, while operating expense growth, excluding depreciation and amortisation, is expected to be between 13% and 16%"

• On the drivers and their persistence: "The most significant factor is technology modernisation... The technology cost inflation that we are experiencing reflects industry trends and is expected to persist beyond FY27... the Accelerate program... costs expected to continue beyond FY27"

• On the capital charge and dividend: "We've reduced our payout ratio to 75%, and we intend to operate the DRP for the next two dividends... we've got confidence of achieving that target" of the $150m capital accrual

• On the listings pipeline: "Our listings pipeline for FY 2027 is the strongest it has been in several years and is increasingly weighted towards larger and more diverse transactions"

• On trading momentum into FY27: "total on-market value traded in July increasing 12% compared to PCP... futures and options on futures volumes in July up 20% on PCP"

Company page: ASX Limited (ASX)

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Treasury Wine backs a flat FY27 as China depletions surge and the US strategic review runs

[1:48 pm] Management leaned on Penfolds depletions momentum and $40 million of Ascent savings to underpin flat group EBITS. Here are the key takeaways from the earnings call.

• On FY27 confidence: "start with the group guidance... group EBITS will be at least equivalent to FY 2026... underpinned by the coming through of ASCENT-related benefits of at least AUD 40 million"

• On the weak Americas outlook: "the headwind from the sell-through of the remaining RNDC stock, the ongoing taking of inventory out of the trade, and then ongoing declines across the premium portfolio led by 19 Crimes... that COGS drag... does weigh on the result in the medium term"

• On China depletions strength: "province and sub-provincial distribution opportunities... really significant... distributor expansion into third, fourth, fifth-tier cities... add to that kind of migration from Baijiu... moderation trends really favoring the alcohol strength that sits inside of our wine"

• On deleveraging without divestments: "we see a pathway to 2x leverage or lower without those divestments in the plan... a real significant focus on working capital... to extract cash that we use to drive down our leverage"

• On the dividend: "that is certainly when we will start having the discussions with the board about an appropriate time... our goal right now is to focus hard on delivering us back into the target range"

Company page: Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

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Orora flags a lower FY27 as Glass price and mix pressure persists while Cans powers ahead

[1:44 pm] At the earnings call, management pointed to continued Saverglass pricing headwinds into at least 1H27 and a step-up in D&A, while backing Cans to return to long-run growth and stronger group cash flow.

• On the FY27 Saverglass headwind: "at least through the first half of 2027, we would expect around the magnitude we saw in the second half of 2026 to persist... we don't have true visibility on the second half, but I wouldn't think it's going to moderate, in FY 2027"

• On the impairment assumptions: "The long-term growth rate is 3.7% in terms of volume... In the prior model, we had volume growth of about 5.6%. You can see that clearly detailed in the impairment note in the accounts"

• On Cans volume confidence: "we're comfortable with that 4%-6% range... being a reasonable expectation based on everything we hear from our customers and are seeing in the market"

• On the RAK restart economics: "The economics of operating two lines at RAK, which is approximately 50% capacity, is largely neutral versus keeping RAK in an idling mode"

• On the Glass improvement plan payback: "both of these projects we believe will be comfortably above the 15% by year two... that capital is part of what is going to help generate that positive return commencing from the second half"

• On group cash flow: "free cash flow available to shareholders is expected to be higher in FY27 as total CapEx reduces following completion of the Cannes capacity growth investment cycle"

Company page: Orora Group (ORA)

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ClearBridge's Potts sees Telstra's dividend growth intact after an in-line FY26

[1:39 pm] Telstra delivered another year of earnings growth in FY26, with stronger mobile earnings and lower costs supporting a higher dividend and a new $1 billion share buyback. But with the stock coming off a strong run, competition, Starlink and potential regulatory changes remain key risks. As part of Livewire Markets' reporting season coverage, we spoke to Patrick Potts from ClearBridge Investments about what the result means for investors and whether Telstra can keep growing its dividend from here.

Read the full analysis.

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Softening housing market is doing some of the RBA's tightening for it, says Kent

[12:43 pm] Assistant Governor Chris Kent said falling home values are adding to restrictive financial conditions, easing the pressure on monetary policy

• Kent said the softening housing market is contributing to financial conditions being potentially a bit more restrictive than otherwise

• Home values have been hit by higher interest rates, cuts to investor tax breaks, cost-of-living pressures and heavy household debt

• The tax changes appear to have reduced demand in the established housing market

• Kent said these changes will tend to reduce the extent to which monetary policy needs to constrain aggregate demand to bring inflation back to target

Source: Bloomberg

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Average weekly earnings growth slows to its weakest pace since 2022

[12:42 pm] Full-time adult earnings growth cooled on both a six-monthly and annual basis, with the private sector lagging the public sector

• Average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults were $2,083.70 in May 2026

• Six-monthly growth of 1.6%, the lowest since May 2022, with annual growth of 3.7%, the lowest since November 2022

• Public sector earnings rose 2.3% over the six months versus 1.4% for the private sector

• Transport, postal and warehousing led industries at 4.3%, followed by wholesale trade at 3.2%

• Queensland recorded the strongest state growth at 2.5%, ahead of the Northern Territory at 2.2%

• Gender pay gap narrowed to a record low 11.3%, down from 11.5% in November 2025

Source: ABS

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ASX 200 slips for a second day

[11:34 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is down 49 pts (0.54%), slightly off session lows and on track to record a second day of declines (and down four of the last five). Breadth is fairly weak, with only Utilities trading higher and 135 constituents (67%) trading lower. Telstra (4.0%) is the main drag on telcos, despite its FY26 result and FY27 guidance landing relatively in-line with market expectations. A mixed day for banks, with ANZ (+2.5%) higher on a solid Q3, while CBA (-2.5%) dips after yesterday's in-line FY26 result. The Utilities sector has now spiked 5.5% in the last two sessions, with today's move driven by Origin (+5.2%) and yesterday's by AGL (+5.9%).

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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HomeCo Daily Needs REIT FY26 earnings call highlights

[11:22 am] Management delivered FY26 in line with guidance and struck an upbeat tone, while guiding FY27 earnings lower on a step-up in interest expense

• On the FY27 setup: "Our FY 2027 guidance is really driven by strong top-line income growth, which we believe will continue and possibly improve, offset by a step-up in weighted average cost of debt and drawn debt"

• On the interest cost headwind: "the weighted average cost of debt, which, if you go back 12 months, was around 4.8, and as you kind of look forward 12 months, it's probably going to land somewhere around 50 bps higher. Then the drawn debt is about AUD 100 million more off the back of our development pipeline rollout"

• On the consumer: "most retailers said that May, June were a little bit soft... but the bounce back in July has been material and noticeable. That goes across discretionary and non-discretionary sectors"

• On the retail outlook: "I am expecting that we are going to be surprised on the upside on retail spending over the course of the next six months"

• On pausing developments: "My view is that yield on cost right now probably needs to be a little bit higher before I pull the trigger on it. We are just going to pause for a moment... short term it probably needs to be higher"

• On the NTA discount: "all capital initiatives are under consideration to close the NTA discount for investors as you would expect. However, I view this moment as a time to pause and position rather than take any actions hastily"

Company page: HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

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Gold stocks eye 10-day win streak

[10:55 am] The S&P/ASX 200 All Ords Gold Index is up 0.68% after gold prices advanced 0.8% overnight to US$4,407/oz (and currently up 0.4% to US$4,428). A higher close today will mark a 10-day win streak.

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ANZ rallies on Q3 result, CBA dips after yesterday's FY26 result

[10:50 am] ANZ is charging ahead on much lower-than-expected provisions, while CBA is trading 2.0% lower after yesterday's relatively in-line result.

Here are the key Q3 numbers from ANZ:

• Cash profit of $1.90bn vs $1.923bn ests (1% miss)

• Markets revenue of $507m vs $498m ests (2% beat)

• Group NIM of 1.54% vs 1.53% ests (1bp beat), up 1bp on the prior quarter and up 4bps ex-Markets

• Individual provision charge of $65m vs $130m ests, a much lighter bad debt outcome than modelled

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:39 am] Cleanaway rallies on a takeover offer from EQR (non-binding, indicative at $3.13), ASX rallies on a slightly better-than-expected FY26 and in-line cost guidances and gold stocks continue to trend higher. Meanwhile, Aloca dips after aluminium prices fell 1.5% overnight to US$3,298/oz and Telstra eases on a fairly in-line FY26 result.

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Charter Hall Long WALE REIT delivers 2% earnings growth and holds FY27 guidance flat

[9:41 am] Operating earnings and distributions both grew 2%, with the portfolio marked higher, gearing low and FY27 guidance set at no growth on the FY26 result

• Operating earnings up 2.0% to $181.9m, or 25.5c per security, with distributions matching at 25.5c

• Statutory earnings of $275.9m, boosted by a $188m net valuation uplift (up 3.2%)

• NTA up 2.6% to $4.71 per security, with the portfolio cap rate at 5.4% across 505 properties worth $6.1bn

• Balance sheet gearing of 27.5% at the low end of the 25-35% target, with a new $2.0bn secured debt platform cutting credit margins 20bps to 1.2% and 85% of FY27 debt hedged

• Portfolio metrics resilient with 99.9% occupancy, a 9.2 year WALE and 3.1% average annual net property income growth

• FY27 guidance of 25.5c operating EPS and 25.5c distribution, flat on FY26, a 6.7% yield on yesterday's close

Company page: Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (CLW)

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Treasury Wine beats its own EBITS guidance but a fresh US writedown drives a big statutory loss

[9:34 am] Group EBITS landed above guidance and slightly ahead of Morgans and consensus on Penfolds strength, but a $558.4 million US impairment pushed the company to a statutory loss.

• Group EBITS down 36.1% to $492.3m, above the $480-490m guidance range and ahead of $485m ests (1.5% beat)

• Statutory loss NPAT of $1,078.7m, driven by $1,308.7m of post-tax material items including an incremental $558.4m US asset and brand impairment in 2H26

• Penfolds EBITS down 15.2% to $404.3m at a 40.5% margin, with depletions up globally led by China +34.7%, Asia ex-China +18.1% and Australia +5.7%

• Treasury Americas EBITS down 61.4% to $90.2m at a 15.7% margin on softer US wine conditions and the California distribution transition

• Leverage of 2.8x expected to be the peak, with a return to below 2.0x targeted by end-FY28

• FY27 EBITS guided to be at least equivalent to FY26 and weighted about 55% to 2H, with ~$40m of Ascent cost savings expected in the year

Today's result contains no surprises as Treasury Wine already flagged the $558.4 million impairment on 10 August. The announcement also noted unaudited FY26 EBITs of $492.3 million and FY27 EBITS guidance of "at least equivalent to FY26".

Company page: Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

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ASX beats on revenue and profit as volatility drives its strongest listings year since FY22

[9:32 am] Every division grew and the underlying result ran modestly ahead ofconsensus, though the market's focus stays on the steep FY27 cost and capex step-up

• Operating revenue up 13.3% to $1.25bn vs. $1.25bn ests (in line)

• EBIT up 7.8% to $697.2m vs. $685m ests (2% beat)

• EBITDA up 10% to $765.0m vs. $754m ests (1% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 5.2% to $536.4m vs Morgans $524m (2% beat), with statutory NPAT down 3.5% to $484.9m on significant items

• Total dividend down 7.5% to 206.5 cps fully franked, ahead of Morgans' 202.6 cps ests

• FY27 guidance reaffirmed with total expense growth of 18-21% (in-line with 26-May-26 guidance commentary) and capex of $180-200m (in-line with UBS ests of $190m)

Company page: ASX Limited (ASX)

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ANZ's 3Q26 cash profit beats on lighter impairment charge

[9:24 am] Cash profit came in comfortably ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations, buoyed by softer expenses and a lower impairment charge.

The below ests refer to Morgan Stanley's estimates as at 3 August 2026.

• Cash profit of $1.90bn vs $1.923bn ests (1% miss), up 1% on the 1H26 quarterly average

• Markets revenue of $507m vs $498m ests (2% beat), though down on the $533-554m run rate of recent quarters

• Group NIM of 1.54% vs 1.53% ests (1bp beat), up 1bp on the prior quarter and up 4bps ex-Markets

• CET1 ratio of 12.51% vs 12.69% ests (18bps miss), up 12bps on 31 March 2026

• Individual provision charge of $65m vs $130m ests, a much lighter bad debt outcome than modelled

• Net loans of $831bn broadly in line with $831bn MSe, up 3% including Markets

Company page: ANZ Group (ANZ)

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Orora books a big Glass impairment but the operating result lands in line

[9:11 am] A $742.8 million non-cash writedown on the Glass business dropped Orora to a statutory loss, though underlying earnings held up on Cans strength and matched both Morgans and UBS.

• Statutory NPAT a loss of $616.6m, driven by a $758.8m after-tax significant item including the $742.8m Glass impairment both Morgans and UBS had flagged as a risk

• Revenue up 6.5% to $2.23bn vs Morgans $2.11bn and UBS $2.20bn, driven by Cans revenue up 13.3% on aluminium pass-through and 6.3% volume growth

• EBIT down 5% to $248.2m vs $249m ests (0.3% miss)

• Underlying NPAT down 6% to $142.2m vs. $144m ests (1% miss)

• Total dividend down 10% to 9 cps (final 4 cps, unfranked), in-line with ests

• FY27 group EBIT guided lower on higher D&A and weaker Saverglass, with the buyback set to recommence post-result and leverage a conservative 1.2x

Company page: Orora Group (ORA)

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Origin lifts cash flow and the dividend as gas earnings fall away as expected

[9:10 am] Underlying profit dropped on lower oil-linked gas earnings, but Energy Markets ran hot, free cash surged and the payout held, with the standout being APLNG distributions well ahead of the street

• Underlying EBITDA down 6% to $3.22bn as Integrated Gas fell to $1.62bn on lower realised oil prices, offset by Energy Markets

• Energy Markets underlying EBITDA up 21% to $1.70bn, ahead of UBS ($1.69bn) and consensus ($1.67bn) and above the mid-point of the $1,550-1,750m guidance

• Underlying profit down 22% to $1.16bn, though statutory profit rose 6% to $1.57bn

• Adjusted free cash flow up $867m to $2.07bn, with APLNG distributions to Origin of $911m up 14% and roughly $110m ahead of consensus per UBS

• Total FY26 dividend of 60 cps fully franked (30 cps final), in line with Morgan Stanley and UBS at 60-63c, with adjusted net debt to EBITDA at a comfortable 1.6x

• FY27 Energy Markets EBITDA guided to $1,550-1,850m and total Origin capex to $450-650m as the battery build winds down, with Kraken now at 95m contracted accounts nearing its 100m 2027 target

Company page: Origin Energy (ORG)

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Centuria and ResetData lock in power, capacity and GPU funding for their AI Factory build-out

[9:09 am] The joint venture has ticked off several of the growth milestones flagged at June's equity raising, with a new anchor customer agreement and financing to fund NVIDIA GPU procurement

• Master Services Agreement signed with CDC Data Centres for an initial 7MW allocation, plus a letter of intent to lift that to 10MW

• $165m Macquarie Bank senior bridge facility executed to fund staged NVIDIA GPU procurement, complementing the existing Dell Financial Services partnership

• Accelerating about 10MW of capacity within a Centuria data centre, with potential to fast-track up to a further 20MW

• Secured 72MW of dedicated power generation units for delivery in 2028 within its broader 250MW+ pipeline, bringing deployment timelines forward by roughly two years

• Remaining GPUs ordered for AI-F1 Stage 2, completing the AI-F1 capacity build-out

• MoU signed with an investment-grade corporation for a potential 2MW staged deployment, with customer enquiries still exceeding near-term capacity

• Customer revenue commencement remains on track for 2H FY27

Company page: Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

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Amcor closes out FY26 at the top of guidance as Berry synergies run ahead of plan

[9:05 am] Full-year adjusted earnings landed near the top of the guided range and comfortably ahead of a cautious consensus, with the Berry integration delivering more than expected

• FY26 net sales up 57% to US$23.5bn vs. US$22,386m ests (5% beat), largely driven by the Berry acquisition and raw material cost pass-through

• FY26 adjusted EBITDA up 68% to US$3,673m vs. US$3,549m ests (3% beat)

• FY26 adjusted diluted EPS up 13% to US$4.02, at the top of the US$3.98-4.03 guidance range and ahead US$3.87 ests (4% beat)

• Q4 adjusted EPS up 23% to US$1.23 with Q4 adjusted EBITDA up 32% to US$1,045m and volumes up about 0.5%

• Berry synergies of about US$240m realised in FY26, running ahead of the earlier US$270m full-year target pathway and driving the EBIT beat

• Quarterly dividend lifted to US65 cps

• Transition period guidance (six months to December 2026) for adjusted EPS of US$1.80-1.90 with leverage of 3.5-3.6x, as Amcor shifts to a December year-end

Company page: Amcor (AMC)

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Transurban lifts the FY26 payout in line with expectations

[9:00 am] Earnings and the distribution landed close to where brokers had them, but the initial FY27 payout guidance sits under consensus and the group flagged a transitional year on M5 West

• FY26 distribution up 6.2% to 69 cps, in line with guidance and matching both Morgans and Macquarie at 69 cps

• Proportional operating EBITDA up 7.5% to $3.06bn, with total proportional EBITDA of $3.11bn versus Morgans $3.07bn and Macquarie $3.15bn (in-line)

• Proportional toll revenue up 6.7% to $3.98bn with the EBITDA margin lifting to 75.7% from 74.9%

• Average daily traffic up 2.2% to 2.6m trips, with commercial traffic up 6.6% but West Gate Tunnel volumes flat since February

• FY27 distribution guidance of 72 cps vs. 72.4 cps ests, with free cash coverage guided slightly below the 95-105% target range

Company page: Transurban Group (TCL)

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IAG grows the dividend even as a perils swing drags reported profit

[8:59 am] Headline profit fell against a prior year flattered by reserve releases and benign weather, but underlying insurance earnings and premiums both grew and the payout was lifted

• NPAT down 25% to $1.02bn, though FY25's $1.36bn was inflated by a $330m pre-tax BI reserve release and $195m of favourable peril experience

• Underlying insurance profit up 2% to $1.58bn at a 15.0% underlying margin, down 50bps, or 16.0% excluding the first-year transitional drag from RACQI

• Reported GWP up 7.6% to $18.4bn, with Australian Retail up 17.8% to $10.3bn including $1.27bn from the acquired RACQI business and underlying growth of about 4.5%

• Full-year dividend up 3% to 32 cps with the final lifted to 20 cps, and capital remaining above target ranges

Company page: Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

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Telstra tops off a solid FY26 with a fresh $1bn buyback

[8:51 am] Underlying earnings landed mid-guidance and the dividend grew, but the standout was another round of capital management that ran ahead of where some brokers had pencilled it

• Underlying EBITDAaL up 4% to $8.3bn, at the midpoint of the $8.2-8.4bn guidance range and in line with Morgans' ~$8.3bn EBITDAaL forecast

• Total dividend up 10.5% to 21 cents vs. 20.9 ests (in-line)

• Reported NPAT up 2.7% to $2.4bn, cash EPS up 14% to 25.5c and underlying ROIC up 0.5pp to 9%

• New on-market buyback of up to $1bn announced on top of the $1.25bn completed in June, running ahead of Bell Potter's ests for ~$750m in FY27

• FY27 underlying EBITDAaL guidance of $8.5-8.8bn (midpoint ~4% growth) alongside cash EBIT of $4.75-4.95bn

• Aura Network now over halfway built at a mid-teens IRR and ~9-year payback, though total strategic spend to FY28 lifts to ~$1.8bn from ~$1.6bn on inflation

Company page: Telstra Group (TLS)

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Monadelphous wins more than $110m in resources, energy and infrastructure contracts

[8:50 am] Monadelphous has secured a suite of new construction and maintenance contracts across three clients spanning Papua New Guinea and Western Australia.

• Awarded a Santos contract on the APF Tie-In Project in PNG's Southern Highlands, covering well pad and gathering system construction plus brownfield facility upgrades, with completion expected in 2028

• Civil arm Melchor secured a contract with Pilbara Ports on the Utah Ring Road Reconstruction Project at Port Hedland, starting immediately and due for completion in the first half of 2028

• Won a 12-month services contract at Glencore's Murrin Murrin operations in the WA Goldfields

Company page: Monadelphous Group (MND)

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Cleanaway grants EQT due diligence on $3.13 per share takeover proposal

[8:48 am] Cleanaway has agreed to open its books to EQT Infrastructure after receiving a lifted indicative bid valuing the waste manager at roughly $9.4 billion.

• Cash price of $3.13 per share, up from an initial unsolicited $3.00 proposal, less any dividends or distributions declared from the date of the proposal

• Offer implies a 32.1% premium to the last close of $2.37 on 12 August

• Implied enterprise value of about $9.4bn equates to roughly 20x EV/FY26 EBIT

• Board intends to recommend a binding deal at no less than $3.13 per share, absent a superior proposal and subject to an independent expert view, and has granted EQT up to nine weeks exclusive due diligence to negotiate a scheme implementation deed

• Potential for a fully franked special dividend that could deliver additional franking credit value to shareholders depending on their tax position

• Deal remains conditional on due diligence, unanimous board recommendation, FIRB and ACCC approvals, with no certainty a binding proposal eventuates

Company page: Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

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Elliott nominates six board candidates for Northern Star, escalating its campaign

[8:43 am] The activist has put forward a slate of directors to oversee a strategic and operational review, a week out from the gold miner's full-year results.

• Elliott nominated six candidates including Mark Cutifani, former Anglo American CEO, and Graham Shuttleworth, former Barrick Gold CFO

• Other nominees are Susan Corlett, Paul Graves, Mick McMullen and Peter Rozenauers

• The activist wants the slate to run an "objective, thorough strategic and operational review"

• Elliott has built a 5.6% stake since launching its campaign in June, when it called for a potential sale and a new CEO

• Glencore's Suresh Vadnagra was appointed CEO in July, replacing Stuart Tonkin from Oct 5

• Northern Star has repeatedly cut production guidance amid issues at its Kalgoorlie processing plant, with full-year results due Aug 20

Source: Bloomberg

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Rio Tinto's Tomago aluminium smelter secures $2.5bn government bailout

[8:40 am] Australia's biggest aluminium smelter has won combined federal and state support to stay open as high energy costs threaten its viability.

• Tomago smelter in NSW secured a A$2.5bn ($1.8bn) government bailout, with the venture to invest A$1.1bn in the plant

• Support will make the smelter more flexible so it can cut power use during periods of high grid demand

• Electricity accounts for more than 40% of Tomago's operating costs, with closure flagged when its power-supply contract expires later this decade

• Rio owns slightly more than half of Tomago, with Gove Aluminium Finance and Norsk Hydro holding the remaining stakes

Source: Bloomberg

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US pivots to economic pressure on Iran as Hormuz stays shut and oil supply tightens

[8:09 am] Washington is leaning on sanctions and a naval blockade rather than fresh strikes, but the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with no near-term resolution in sight.

• Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, with Iran refusing to reopen until sanctions are lifted, frozen assets released and a region-wide ceasefire agreed

• Vessel traffic through Hormuz fell to eight ships on Tuesday, well below the 10-day average of about 12 and the pre-war run rate of roughly 130 a day

• Trump has shifted to a "Maximum Pressure" economic playbook, with some 2,200 sanctions on Tehran since 2018 and around 350 under the current push

• Escalation risk centres on China, which buys over 90% of Iran's oil exports, with any move against major Chinese banks risking a fresh front ahead of a planned September Trump-Xi meeting

• Conflict spreading beyond Hormuz, with Houthi attacks in the Bab al-Mandeb strait and continued US strikes on vessels signalling the war is not winding down

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Yardeni lifts S&P 500 target to Street-high 8,400 on 'fabulous earnings momentum'

[8:08 am] Ed Yardeni raised his year-end forecast after a reporting season he says broadly crushed analyst forecasts, keeping his 2029 target at 10,000.

• Year-end S&P 500 target lifted to 8,400 from 8,250, the most bullish call on Wall Street, with the index currently at 7,748.50

• 2026 earnings forecast raised to $375 from $330 per share

• Q2 EPS growth expected at 31% with more than 90% of firms reported, per Bloomberg Intelligence

• Yardeni coined "FEMO", or fabulous earnings momentum, and cited the fastest rise in consensus earnings expectations he has seen

Source: Bloomberg

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S&P 500 earnings are so strong that investors are worried about what comes next

[8:07 am] Q2 profit growth topped 30% in one of the best reporting seasons in memory, but strategists warn a decelerating pace from here has historically marked a weaker phase for equities.

• Q2 profit growth running above 30%, with 85.2% of companies beating EPS estimates, the highest since 2021, and only 10.8% missing, the lowest in three decades

• Consensus sees growth falling below 20% in Q1 2027 before moderating into the mid-teens for the full year

• When EPS growth is above trend but decelerating, the S&P 500's median 12-month return is 6.7% vs. 14% when growth is above trend and accelerating, per BofA

• Four straight quarters of 20%+ growth would be rare, occurring only 10 times since 1936 and usually after EPS recessions like Covid and the GFC

• Market reactions are muted, with beats on revenue, earnings or both seeing flat one-day excess returns while misses trigger steeper selloffs

Source: Bloomberg

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US 10-year auction clears at highest yield since 2007

[8:06 am] A $42 billion sale of 10-year Treasuries drew solid demand even as investors keep pricing a Fed hike by year-end, setting up a 30-year sale expected at the highest rate in 25 years.

• 10-year auction cleared at 4.683%, the highest since the global financial crisis, just above the pre-deadline market level in a sign demand only slightly lagged expectations

• Above-target inflation, solid growth, the war and swelling budget deficits continue to weigh on long-dated yields

• In-line July CPI trimmed September hike bets to around 40% from about 50% before the data, though markets still fully price a hike by year-end

• Two-year yield down less than 2 bps at 4.2%, with most Treasuries ending the day little changed

Source: Bloomberg

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Norway's oil fund posts record return but CEO turns cautious on AI and geopolitics

[8:04 am] The world's largest sovereign wealth fund delivered an all-time high first-half return, though CEO Nicolai Tangen warned the run cannot last and flagged mounting risks.

• First-half return of 1.4 trillion kroner ($150bn), an all-time high, driven by gains in global tech holdings

• Tangen called it "as good as it gets" and warned "the fund has doubled the last four years. This will not last"

• Top 10 holdings now account for nearly 25% of the fund's value, with Tangen saying "we've never seen a concentration risk like that"

• Flagged circular financing inflating an AI bubble as raising systemic risk "if anything goes wrong"

• The $2.3 trillion fund now owns about 1.5% of the world's total listed companies

Source: Bloomberg

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AI demand powers a wave of US earnings beats and guidance raises

[8:01 am] A strong batch of US reporters led by Cisco, Nebius and CoreWeave leaned on AI infrastructure momentum, though Supermicro and Amcor showed margin and profit soft spots beneath the top-line strength.

Cisco (down ~4.3% after hours)

• Revenue up 18% to $17.3bn vs. $16.82bn ests (3% beat)

• Non-GAAP EPS up 23% to $1.22 vs. $1.17 ests (4% beat)

• Adj operating income of $6.2bn vs. $5.85bn ests (6% beat), adj operating margin 35.9%

• AI infrastructure orders of $4bn in Q4 and $9.3bn across FY26, total product orders up 35% YoY

• Raises FY27 revenue guide to $72.2-73.4bn vs. $68.69bn ests (6% beat at midpoint) and adj EPS to $5.05-5.11 vs. $4.80 ests (6% beat at midpoint)

• "In FY26, Cisco achieved its highest productivity metrics in 30 years measured by revenue, non-GAAP operating margin, and earnings per employee"

Nebius (+34.1%)

• Revenue up 454% to $582.3m vs. $573m ests (2% beat)

• Adj EBITDA of $236.2m vs. $175m ests (35% beat), swinging from a $21m loss a year ago

• Diluted EPS of -$0.68 vs. -$0.62 ests (10% miss)

• AI cloud revenue up 514% to $575m, contracted capacity lifted to 5 GW from over 4 GW

• "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today. We are deliberately not doing so because we see higher value in retaining some capacity for immediate customer needs"

Amcor (flat after hours)

• Revenue up 26% to $6.4bn vs. $6.05bn ests (6% beat)

• Adj EPS up 23% to $1.23 vs. $1.19 ests (3% beat)

• EBITDA up 32% to $1.05bn vs. $1.02bn ests (3% beat)

• Operating income of $646m vs. $762m ests (15% miss)

• Net income of $389m vs. $554m ests (30% miss)

• "Synergy realisation came in ahead of plan, while performance in our non-core businesses improved substantially"

CoreWeave (+19.2%)

• Raises FY26 revenue guide to $12.4-13.2bn vs. $12.63bn ests (1% beat at midpoint)

• FY26 adj operating income guide of $960m-1.15bn vs. $893m ests (18% beat at midpoint)

• Q3 revenue guide of $3.45-3.60bn vs. $3.43bn ests (3% beat at midpoint)

• Backlog up 46% to $104bn, with July pricing up around 25% across SKUs

Supermicro (+19.0%)

• Revenue of $11.1bn vs. $11.55bn ests (4% miss)

• Adj EPS up 315% to $1.70 vs. $0.96 ests (77% beat)

• Net income of $1.2bn vs. $636m ests (89% beat), gross margin up 800 bps to 17.5%

• Raises FY27 revenue guide to $65-72bn vs. $52.5bn ests (31% beat at midpoint)

• Q1 revenue guide of $14.5-15.5bn vs. $11.68bn ests (28% beat at midpoint)

• "Generated more than $60 billion in new orders, and booked record backlog entering fiscal 2027"

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US inflation stays subdued in July, easing pressure for a September Fed hike

[7:55 am] Both headline and core CPI landed in line with ests, softening the case for a rate rise even as inflation holds above the Fed's target.

• Headline CPI up 3.4% y/y and 0.1% m/m, both in line with ests

• Core CPI up 2.5% y/y and 0.2% m/m, in line and matching the slowest pace since March 2021

• Shelter up 0.1% accounted for two-thirds of the overall increase, while energy and grocery prices both fell

• AI boom clear in the data, with computer software and accessories up a record 21.2% y/y and IT commodities up 3.5% on the month

• Wage growth of 3.2% y/y is lagging headline inflation, removing the fuel needed for a self-sustaining price-wage spiral

• Markets pared September hike bets to around 45%, sending Treasury yields lower and stock futures higher

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[7:49 am] We're kicking things off a little earlier-than-usual today!

ASX 200 futures are down 24 pts (-0.26%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher but off best levels after July CPI landed in line at 3.4% year-on-year

  • S&P 500 (+0.26%), Dow (-0.04%), Nasdaq (+0.54%) and Russell 2000 (+0.61%)

• Eight out of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, laggards include Discretionary (-1.4%), Materials (-1.1%) and Communication Services (-0.9%)

• AI infrastructure names drove the index with Super Micro and CoreWeave surging, while Cisco guided FY27 revenue nearly $10bn above ests and still sold off after hours

• Traders still price roughly a 40% chance the Fed hikes in September, as Hormuz closure continues to drive up energy costs and the US 10-year lingers around the ~4.7% level