ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 29th October
The S&P/ASX 200 to rise as the S&P 500 pushed higher on Fed decision to hold rates while Microsoft rallied 4.5% after hours
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, October 29. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 higher with real estate and financials leading the charge
[2:08 pm] The ASX 200 is up 33.5 points or 0.38%. Rate-sensitive sectors are carrying the market, with Real Estate leading, up 1.6%, and financials up 1.5% as NAB, Westpac and CBA rise 1.9%, 1.8% and 1.5% respectively. Wednesday’s data showed fuel costs pushing inflation higher in the September quarter, with Governor Michele Bullock saying the RBA board will weigh next week whether four rate hikes this year have been enough.
Energy is up 1.4%, tracking higher oil prices on concerns about Middle East supply disruptions as fighting continues in Yemen. Tech snaps a three-day bounce, down 1.5%. A fairly quiet session for Materials, down 0.5%, though some absolute carnage for lithium names, with PLS and Liontown down 7.1% and 5.6% respectively.
Consumer-facing sectors like Staples and Discretionary are broadly lower following multiple profit warnings, with Discretionary falling for a third straight session. Wesfarmers is down 4.3% and JB Hi-Fi and Super Retail are down 2.8% and 2.5% respectively.
Nevertheless, strength from banks and REITs has pushed the index to the highest since 10 September.
S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)
Samsung slides 5.9% as chip profit misses estimates
[1:11 pm] Samsung lifted its spending plans on surging AI-driven memory demand, but its chip division’s September quarter profit fell just short of lofty expectations in a session where the Kospi is down 2.4%.
Chip operating profit up 15-fold to 106.5tn won vs ests of 108.5tn won (1.8% miss)
Group net income up 39%
2026 capex lifted about 60% to 84.4tn won (US$63bn)
Rivals are benefiting from long-term contracts for high-bandwidth memory used in Nvidia’s AI chips
Up to 110tn won in shareholder returns planned this year, including 30tn won of dividends for the September quarter
Source: Bloomberg
UBS flags 20% earnings upside in SiteMinder guidance
[1:01 pm] UBS says SiteMinder’s move to narrow its medium-term growth target to a mid-20s rate is a key positive, as its own and consensus forecasts sit at the bottom of the previous range.
Buy retained with a $6.85 target, implying 139% upside from the $2.87 share price
Annual recurring revenue guidance tightened to a mid-20s CAGR over FY26-30, from “in the 20s”
Forecasts sit at the bottom of the old range, with UBS and consensus both modelling about 20% annual ARR growth
25% growth implies FY30 EBITDA of $172m, 20% above UBS’s forecast and 21% above consensus
Implied FY30 profit of $88m, 30% above UBS’s forecast
FY27 ARR growth now guided to the mid-20s, with UBS forecasting EBITDA margin to rise to 15.8% from 10.6% in FY26
Company page: SiteMinder (SDR)
Macquarie cuts PLS target 14% on weaker lithium prices
[1:00 pm] Macquarie says PLS beat on production and costs in the September quarter and kept its Outperform rating, but a sharp fall in lithium prices drove deep cuts to its earnings forecasts.
Target cut 14% to $4.50 from $5.25, as FY27-29 EPS forecasts fall 29-69%
Spodumene price forecasts cut 31-36% for the four quarters to September 2027, to an average of US$1,255/t
Production of 267.6kt vs ests of 251.3kt (6% beat)
Unit costs of $539/t vs ests of $606/t (11% beat)
$88m negative pricing adjustment on September quarter sales will drag on December quarter earnings
Fortescue power deal a key positive, cutting expected P2000 operating costs by $15-20/t
Company page: PLS Group (PLS)
Morgan Stanley flags modest upside surprise in Woolworths sales
[1:00 pm] Morgan Stanley says Woolworths’ first-quarter sales were a modest upside surprise led by its supermarkets, but it left its investment view unchanged as comparisons get tougher from the December quarter.
Equal-weight retained with a $39.00 target, about 5% below the $40.88 share price, alongside a Cautious view on the sector
Supermarket comparable sales up 6.1% vs ests of up 5.1% (beat), with growth accelerating through the quarter excluding the Ooshies promotion
Well ahead of Coles, whose supermarkets grew total sales 3.7% in their eight-week update
Comparisons get harder in Q2, with Woolworths cycling 4.4% comparable growth after 1.6% in Q1 last year
New Zealand Food and BIG W both missed, with comparable sales of 2.6% and -1.3% vs ests of 3.2% and -0.4%
Target blends two valuations, a $37 price-to-earnings value at about 26x forward earnings and a $40.90 DCF
Company page: Woolworths Group (WOW)
Lithium stocks dip as Chinese futures sink 4%
[12:11 pm] Lithium stocks are on the back foot after Chinese lithium carbonate futures slumped 4.0% to 92,540 yuan a tonne this morning. That wipes out most of a bounce of as much as 7% over the past three sessions and leaves prices hovering near their year-to-date lows.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | 1 Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PLS | PLS Group | -6.2% | $2.81 | -3.3% | -33.2% |
LTR | Liontown | -6.0% | $0.66 | -3.3% | -57.8% |
PAT | Patriot Resources | -4.4% | $0.04 | -4.4% | -20.4% |
CXO | Core Lithium | -3.2% | $0.23 | 8.3% | -17.3% |
PMT | PMET Resources | -2.9% | $0.34 | 4.7% | -43.7% |
IGO | IGO | -1.2% | $5.14 | -2.1% | -37.2% |
MIN | Mineral Resources | -1.0% | $44.83 | -0.4% | -17.6% |
WC8 | Wildcat Resources | 0.0% | $0.23 | 0.0% | -39.2% |
DLI | Delta Lithium | 0.0% | $0.16 | -6.1% | -29.5% |
GL1 | Global Lithium Resources | 0.0% | $0.90 | -6.2% | 42.9% |
VUL | Vulcan Energy Resources | 1.4% | $1.30 | 16.9% | -70.6% |
AGY | Argosy Minerals | 3.3% | $0.03 | 24.0% | -74.2% |
INR | Ioneer | 5.0% | $0.11 | 5.0% | -43.2% |
EUR | European Lithium | 6.8% | $0.39 | 2.6% | 151.6% |
ASIC quizzes banks behind failed Firmus IPO
[12:08 pm] ASIC is making targeted inquiries of the lead managers on AI infrastructure company Firmus's failed IPO, stopping short of opening a formal investigation.
Firmus was set to raise about $5bn at a roughly $30bn valuation, which would have ranked among the largest IPOs in Australian history
The deal’s collapse weighed on listed peers globally and prompted other companies to delay their own IPO plans
The joint lead managers were Bank of America, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Morgans Financial
Senator Dave Sharma wrote to ASIC on 13 October after some banks implied during marketing that the offer was oversubscribed
ASIC chair Sarah Court said lead managers must have a reasonable basis for claims about investor demand and update investors if demand changes materially
Court also cautioned that the deal not proceeding should not necessarily be read as a market failure or a sign of wrongdoing
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin braces for swings as $11bn in options expire
[12:07 pm] Bitcoin traders are bracing for sharper price swings as about $11 billion of options expire on Friday, just days before the US midterm elections.
The 30 October expiry covers about a third of all outstanding Bitcoin options on Deribit, with Bitcoin at US$81,100 after slipping below US$80,000 on Monday
Call options outnumber puts, with heavy concentrations at US$90,000, US$95,000 and US$100,000 now likely to expire worthless
Gamma measures how much dealers need to adjust their hedges as Bitcoin’s price moves
About 70% of the expiring gamma sits between US$75,000 and US$82,000, and dealer hedging could accelerate a fall through US$75,000–78,000 if dealers are short, according to Tesseract Group
Options sellers may hold off on writing new contracts until after the 3 November midterms, removing a usual dampener on volatility, according to Orbit Markets
Source: Bloomberg
Alphabet slides 10% as search slowdown revives AI spending fears
[12:05 pm] Alphabet shares fell 10% in late trading after search advertising growth slowed to a five-quarter low, in stark contrast to Microsoft, which rallied on a cloud beat with spending in check.
Services revenue of $96.3bn vs $98.4bn ests (2% miss)
AI Mode queries carry lower monetisation, Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, though Google plans to bring more ads to the search tab
Future commitments for compute and energy reached $924bn, with $152bn in uncommenced obligations such as data centre leases lifting the total above $1tn
Free cash flow was negative for a second straight quarter, a first since Alphabet listed
EPS of $2.12 vs $2.99 ests (29% miss), with an $8.7bn equity investment loss largely driven by its SpaceX stake
Source: Bloomberg
Discretionary stock broadly lower following multiple profit warnings
[11:39 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary index is 2% lower this morning, extending its slide to a third session, after Wesfarmers flagged a slowdown at Bunnings and JB Hi-Fi said sales softened in October ahead of the Black Friday and Christmas trading period.
The updates follow Nick Scali’s first-half profit downgrade last week, which it blamed on weaker retail conditions and the housing downturn.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | 1 week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WES | Wesfarmers | -3.8% | $74.23 | -5.0% | -8.4% |
SUL | Super Retail Group | -3.2% | $12.59 | -2.0% | -21.3% |
LNW | Light & Wonder, Inc | -2.9% | $124.40 | 0.3% | -19.7% |
CTD | Corporate Travel Management | -2.2% | $3.49 | 6.4% | 16.3% |
APE | Eagers Automotive | -1.4% | $18.58 | 3.2% | -24.0% |
JBH | JB Hi-Fi | -1.4% | $69.70 | -2.3% | -27.6% |
FLT | Flight Centre Travel Group | -1.2% | $11.18 | 0.7% | -25.4% |
CKF | Collins Foods | -1.1% | $8.82 | -1.5% | -16.7% |
NCK | Nick Scali | -1.1% | $12.44 | 8.2% | -47.1% |
PMV | Premier Investments | -1.1% | $13.19 | 0.2% | -4.8% |
GYG | Guzman Y Gomez | -1.0% | $25.44 | -5.0% | 16.4% |
SNL | Supply Network | -0.8% | $34.04 | -2.8% | 4.9% |
WEB | Webbeds Group | -0.7% | $3.62 | 5.1% | -24.4% |
DMP | Domino'S Pizza Enterprises | -0.4% | $21.10 | -3.6% | 0.3% |
VGN | Virgin Australia | -0.4% | $2.43 | 0.8% | -30.8% |
LOV | Lovisa | -0.2% | $25.02 | 0.2% | -14.6% |
ARB | Arb Corporation | 0.0% | $16.63 | -3.3% | -47.7% |
HLO | Helloworld Travel | 0.0% | $1.35 | -1.8% | -29.0% |
BRG | Breville Group | 0.2% | $30.54 | -2.4% | 3.5% |
HVN | Harvey Norman | 0.3% | $4.01 | 0.3% | -42.5% |
QAN | Qantas Airways | 0.3% | $8.73 | 4.7% | -16.1% |
ALL | Aristocrat Leisure | 0.3% | $62.86 | 0.6% | 8.8% |
TLC | Lottery Corporation | 0.9% | $5.33 | 0.9% | 3.4% |
TAH | Tabcorp | 4.7% | $0.89 | 2.9% | -8.7% |
Real Estate sector catching a bid in early trade
[11:28 am] The S&P/ASX Real Estate (XRE) index up 1.9%, but down 15% year-to-date after a perfect storm of downward pressures including RBA interest rates hikes, a Federal tax change and rising bond yields. However, since the start of October the index has risen 5%.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | Performance %, 1 week | Performance %, Year to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GMG | Goodman Group | 3.8% | $27.69 | 7.2% | -10.7% |
CWP | Cedar Woods Properties | 2.2% | $6.12 | 1.3% | -29.2% |
ABG | Abacus Group | 1.9% | $0.82 | 4.5% | -32.0% |
CNI | Centuria Capital Group | 1.8% | $1.15 | 6.0% | -42.7% |
RGN | Region Group | 1.8% | $2.30 | 4.5% | -3.4% |
CQE | Charter Hall Social Infrastructure Reit | 1.7% | $2.46 | 2.9% | -20.4% |
CMW | Cromwell Property Group | 1.5% | $0.34 | 1.5% | -28.7% |
WPR | Waypoint Reit | 1.4% | $2.15 | 3.4% | -16.0% |
CHC | Charter Hall Group | 1.4% | $20.08 | 3.0% | -17.9% |
DGT | Digico Infrastructure Reit | 1.4% | $2.18 | 13.5% | -21.9% |
CLW | Charter Hall Long Wale Reit | 1.2% | $3.32 | 1.8% | -19.0% |
INA | Ingenia Communities Group | 1.1% | $5.32 | 16.9% | 2.3% |
CIP | Centuria Industrial Reit | 1.1% | $2.81 | 1.8% | -15.1% |
VCX | Vicinity Centres | 1.0% | $2.42 | 4.1% | -5.7% |
DXS | Dexus | 1.0% | $5.69 | 0.3% | -19.5% |
GPT | Gpt Group | 1.0% | $4.73 | 2.7% | -12.8% |
SKG | Storage King Group | 0.9% | $1.08 | 0.5% | -28.9% |
PXA | Pexa Group | 0.9% | $6.81 | 4.0% | -49.3% |
DXI | Dexus Industria Reit | 0.9% | $2.37 | 2.2% | -12.5% |
BWP | Bwp Group | 0.8% | $3.57 | 1.7% | -9.0% |
SCG | Scentre Group | 0.7% | $3.53 | 1.9% | -15.7% |
LIC | Lifestyle Communities | 0.7% | $4.24 | 8.4% | -16.0% |
RFF | Rural Funds Group | 0.6% | $1.94 | 0.9% | -1.6% |
APZ | Aspen Group | 0.6% | $4.73 | 6.3% | -17.2% |
ARF | Arena Reit | 0.6% | $2.64 | 1.7% | -26.0% |
GOZ | Growthpoint Properties Australia | 0.5% | $1.96 | 1.3% | -19.5% |
SGP | Stockland | 0.5% | $4.20 | 0.5% | -26.8% |
HDN | Homeco Daily Needs Reit | 0.5% | $1.11 | 2.3% | -19.0% |
LLC | Lendlease Group | 0.4% | $2.30 | -5.0% | -55.8% |
CQR | Charter Hall Retail Reit | 0.4% | $3.63 | 4.2% | -10.9% |
MGR | Mirvac Group | 0.1% | $1.81 | 0.1% | -11.2% |
SRV | Servcorp | 0.0% | $5.30 | -0.9% | -22.2% |
GLF | Gemlife Communities Group | -0.3% | $3.87 | -4.2% | -25.0% |
PPC | Peet | -0.4% | $1.39 | -1.1% | -28.2% |
Top ASX 200 gainers
[10:57 am] Risk appetite continues to improve as growth and speculative names have continued to rise. The S&P/ASX Emerging Companies index (XEC) is adding to its three day win streak today after a 17% tumble since late August.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | 1 week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSB | Mesoblast | 14.9% | $2.16 | 16.1% | -20.9% |
IPX | Iperionx | 7.6% | $2.26 | 19.3% | -59.0% |
VUL | Vulcan Energy Resources | 6.8% | $1.37 | 23.2% | -69.0% |
TLX | Telix Pharmaceuticals | 5.4% | $13.77 | -3.6% | 22.4% |
ZIP | Zip | 4.7% | $1.83 | -11.3% | -44.1% |
NEU | Neuren Pharmaceuticals | 4.7% | $19.84 | 0.7% | 6.6% |
DTL | Data#3 | 4.0% | $15.57 | 18.4% | 73.6% |
TAH | Tabcorp | 3.8% | $0.88 | 2.0% | -9.5% |
RSG | Resolute Mining | 3.1% | $1.18 | 2.2% | -4.1% |
GMG | Goodman Group | 3.0% | $27.47 | 6.3% | -11.4% |
Top ASX 200 losers
[10:57 am] Champion Iron tops the losers this morning after releasing its quarterly that saw its revenue fall 18% year-on-year. Wesfarmers is lower after flagging Bunnings slowdown in its AGM address this morning.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | 1 week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CIA | Champion Iron | -10.0% | $2.04 | -10.7% | -66.4% |
ELV | Elevra Lithium | -5.1% | $3.54 | -3.8% | -55.9% |
LTR | Liontown | -4.6% | $0.67 | -1.8% | -57.2% |
PLS | PLS Group | -4.2% | $2.87 | -1.2% | -31.8% |
MI6 | Minerals 260 | -3.4% | $0.78 | 3.7% | 85.1% |
FFM | Firefly Metals | -3.1% | $1.41 | 5.6% | -31.6% |
WES | Wesfarmers | -3.0% | $74.81 | -4.3% | -7.7% |
WOW | Woolworths Group | -2.7% | $39.71 | -5.1% | 35.3% |
DYL | Deep Yellow | -2.5% | $0.78 | 0.6% | -57.6% |
SUL | Super Retail Group | -2.5% | $12.68 | -1.3% | -20.8% |
Wesfarmers flags Bunnings slowdown as rate hikes bite
[10:47 am] Wesfarmers says elevated inflation and four rate hikes this year are weighing on retail demand, leaving its chemicals, energy and fertilisers division to do the heavy lifting at the start of FY27.
The AGM address was announced at 8:01 am AEDT, marked as non-price sensitive. Wesfarmers shares are down 3.1% to $74.75 in early trade.
Bunnings sales growth has moderated since 2H26, with weaker seasonal and commercial sales in recent weeks offsetting a stronger start to the quarter
Kmart sales growth is broadly in line with 2H26, while FY27 earnings will carry $30–40m in costs tied to its new Moorebank omnichannel facility
Officeworks sales growth is broadly in line with 2H26, with a structurally lower cost base expected to lift FY27 earnings
WesCEF’s 1H27 earnings will benefit from lagged ammonia pass-through pricing, recent capacity expansions and improved spodumene pricing
Mt Holland spodumene production is tracking in line with nameplate capacity of about 380kt, with WesCEF’s 190kt share sales weighted to 1H27
Company page: Wesfarmers (WES)
Appen EBITDA jumps tenfold on AI data demand
[9:49 am] Appen’s earnings surged in the September quarter as both its China and global divisions grew, though it expects full-year revenue to land in the lower half of its guidance range.
Revenue up 34% y/y to US$73.9m, and up 13% q/q
Underlying EBITDA of US$10.3m, up from US$1.0m a year earlier
Appen China revenue up 61% y/y to US$46.1m, with an annualised run-rate above US$190m in September
Appen Global returned to profit with EBITDA of US$5.6m, after a US$1.3m loss in the June quarter
Two leading US frontier AI model builders signed, including a former major customer, though FY26 revenue from them is expected to be modest
FY26 guidance maintained at US$270-300m revenue and a 5-10% EBITDA margin, with revenue tracking to the lower half and margin to the upper half
Company page: Appen (APX)
Meteoric flags Caldeira licence delay to early 2027
[9:49 am] Meteoric Resources expects its Caldeira construction licence early next year after Brazilian regulators asked for more information, though it says the delay won’t hold up the broader construction timeline or Lynas’ takeover.
Construction licence now expected early 2027, after Minas Gerais’ environmental regulator issued further information requests
Responses due by the end of 2026, possibly including additional field studies
Delay coincides with the wet season, which Meteoric says limits early earthworks but won’t materially alter the construction timeline
No impact expected on the Lynas scheme timetable
Lynas advanced the first $35m of an interim funding facility of up to $110m on 6 October
Cash of $29.3m at quarter end, down from $37.8m
Company page: Meteoric Resources (MEI)
NRW secures $334m across two contracts
[9:45 am] NRW Holdings has extended its mining services contract at Coronado’s Curragh mine in Queensland and won mechanical and electrical work on a new national security precinct in Canberra.
Curragh contract extended by one year, worth about $200m, starting January 2027
Fredon won $134m of work packages from Lendlease at the National Security Office Precinct
Packages include $101m of mechanical works and $33m of high voltage infrastructure
Precinct work runs from early 2027 to late 2028
Company page: NRW Holdings (NWH)
Liontown output slumps 24% on lower-quality stockpile feed
[9:40 am] Liontown’s spodumene output fell sharply in the September quarter as it ran down open pit stockpiles, though it says record underground development keeps it on track to meet full-year guidance.
Production fell 24% q/q to 77,982dmt as recoveries slipped to 60% on lower-quality stockpile feed
Revenue fell 15% q/q to $199m, with one shipment pushed into the December quarter
Realised price up 5% q/q to US$1,966/dmt on an SC6 equivalent basis
Unit costs rose to $1,259/dmt, above the top of FY27 guidance of $1,050-1,250/dmt
Cash fell $58m to $502m as repayments on the Ford debt facility began
FY27 production guidance of 390-440kdmt (midpoint 415kdmt) maintained, with underground mining set to step up to about 1.9Mtpa this quarter
Company page: Liontown (LTR)
FireFly Metals targets mid-2027 investment decision on Green Bay
[9:35 am] FireFly Metals ended the September quarter with nearly $350 million after a major capital raising, as it prepares to deliver a feasibility study and investment decision on its Green Bay copper-gold project in Canada next year.
Cash and liquid investments of $349.7m at 30 September
Raised $185m through a $180m placement and $5m share purchase plan at $1.78 a share
Base case NPV of $2.2bn and IRR of 41% at 1.8Mtpa, rising to $3.0bn at 4.6Mtpa
Initial capex of $516m for the base case, with payback of 1.9 years
Measured and indicated resource up 19% to 60.2Mt at 2.4% CuEq
Feasibility study and maiden ore reserve due in Q1 2027, ahead of a final investment decision in mid-2027
Company page: FireFly Metals (FFM)
Challenger keeps door open to TAL Daiichi as annuity sales surge
[9:35 am] Challenger’s chair told shareholders the board will keep engaging with largest shareholder TAL Daiichi Life after rejecting its takeover approach, while the CEO pointed to strong sales momentum at the start of FY27.
TAL Daiichi offer rejected at $11.80 a share, but the board will engage to see if a recommendable proposal can be reached
$300m buyback paused since 19 October, with Challenger committed to resuming it when appropriate
Annuity sales up 72% to $2.8bn in the September quarter, lifting total sales 52% to $4.4bn
AUM of $31.9bn, up 5% q/q, with a target of $50bn by 2030
Second annuity-backed notes issue completed this week, following an oversubscribed $750m debut in July
Chair Duncan West said his re-election would likely be his final three-year term
Company page: Challenger (CGF)
Resolute EBITDA halves on gold sales timing as Syama recovers in September
[9:35 am] Resolute Mining held production steady in the September quarter despite operational problems at its Syama mine in Mali, though delayed gold shipments halved earnings and it is counting on a strong final quarter to meet recently cut guidance.
Production of 44,398oz at AISC of US$2,506/oz, both broadly in line with the June quarter
EBITDA halved q/q to US$64.0m on revenue of US$142.9m, with gold sales down 40% on shipment timing
Net cash fell to US$276.1m from US$317.4m, with US$52.9m spent on Doropo
Syama produced about 15.5koz in September after a weak July and August
Doropo remains on track and on budget for first gold in 1H28, with US$260m of local financing secured after quarter end
FY26 guidance of 205-225koz (midpoint 215koz) at AISC of US$2,250-2,350/oz, as revised on 21 September
Company page: Resolute Mining (RSG)
PYC Therapeutics holds $655m as three clinical readouts line up for 2027
[9:22 am] PYC Therapeutics advanced all four of its RNA drug programs in the September quarter, with key clinical readouts due next year and enough cash to fund the pipeline into 2030.
Cash and investments of $655m, which PYC says funds all four programs into 2030
Net operating outflow of $14.9m, including $21.4m in R&D payments
Kidney disease program moved to a higher 2.4mg/kg dose in its repeat-dose study, with data due in 2027
Phelan-McDermid program entered the toxicology studies required before human trials, which are expected to start in 2027
Optic atrophy program proof-of-concept data from repeat dosing is due in 2027
Retinitis pigmentosa program is using long-term data to prepare for a potential registrational trial in 2027
Company page: PYC Therapeutics (PYC)
Perpetual flags return to partially franked dividends once Wealth sale completes
[9:19 am] Perpetual’s board told shareholders the sale of its Wealth Management business to Bain Capital remains on track to complete this year and should leave the group debt free, as it defended its rejection of EQT’s takeover approach.
The Wealth Management sale is on track to complete by the end of 2026, with Bain Capital paying $500m upfront
Perpetual expects to move into a net cash position after the sale
Franking credits from the sale may support partially franked dividends from 2H27
The board stands by its rejection of EQT’s $22.50 a share proposal
Annualised cost savings reached $72.6m, on track for up to $80m by the end of FY27
Proxies show 94.3% support for the remuneration report
Company page: Perpetual (PPT)
Champion Iron amends debt covenants as loss deepens despite record sales
[9:18 am] Champion Iron sold a record volume of iron ore in the September quarter but slipped further into the red as lower prices, higher shipping costs and elevated fuel prices squeezed margins, and it amended its debt covenants to cope with current market conditions.
Revenue fell 18% y/y to C$403.9m despite record sales of 4.5Mdmt
Adjusted EBITDA fell 87% y/y to C$23.3m
Net loss of C$48.4m, vs a C$56.8m profit a year earlier
Net realised price fell 30% y/y to C$89.9/dmt, below all-in sustaining costs of C$97.9/dmt
Covenants on its senior secured facility were amended to provide more flexibility, with total debt of C$1,303.1m
First commercial shipment of direct reduction quality product completed, with commercial production targeted toward the end of FY27
Company page: Champion Iron (CIA)
Develop’s Woodlawn hits record throughput but lower grades cut metal output 21%
[9:11 am] Develop Global pushed record volumes through its Woodlawn copper-zinc mine in the September quarter, but a decision to mine lower-grade ore outside the mine plan weighed on metal output.
Woodlawn processed a record 201,130t of ore, up 17% q/q
Copper-equivalent (CuEq) production fell 21% q/q to 3,697t as processed grade dropped to 1.47% CuEq from 2.73%
Concentrate sales of 19,614t generated $57.4m in revenue
Operating free cash flow of $29.6m, while $58.6m was invested in growth projects
First lithium ore mined at Pioneer Dome, with the first direct shipping ore cargo on track for the December quarter
FY27 Woodlawn guidance unchanged at 21-23.5kt CuEq (midpoint 22.25kt), with October feed grade back at 2.9% CuEq
Company page: Develop Global (DVP)
Lynas hits record NdPr output and prices but flags month-long Malaysian shutdown
[9:11 am] Lynas delivered its strongest quarterly revenue since mid-2022 in the September quarter as production recovered from the concentrate quality problems that hit the June quarter, though planned maintenance will weigh on December quarter output.
Sales revenue up 55% y/y to $310.1m, the highest since the June quarter of 2022
Average selling price up 88% y/y to a record $102.1/kg, with floor price agreements now covering more than half of production
NdPr production up 4% y/y and 12% q/q to a record 2,082t
Sales volumes down 18% y/y to 3,039t
Cash and short-term deposits steady at $1,212m after a roughly $50m equity investment in magnet partner JS Link
December quarter production will be lower due to a one-month planned maintenance shutdown at Lynas Malaysia
Company page: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)
JB Hi-Fi flags October slowdown ahead of Christmas
[9:07 am] JB Hi-Fi’s first-quarter sales landed broadly in line with UBS across its three main brands, but a slowdown in October puts the crucial Black Friday and Christmas trading period in focus.
JB Hi-Fi Australia comparable sales down 1.4% vs ests of down 1.3% (in line), with total sales down 0.4%
The Good Guys comparable sales down 0.4% vs ests of down 0.5% (in line), with total sales down 0.1%
JB Hi-Fi New Zealand comparable sales up 10.7% vs ests of up 11.0% (slight miss), with total sales up 17.3%
Sales slowed in October, while ests pencil in a modest improvement to down 1.1% for JB Hi-Fi Australia comparable sales in weeks 14–26 of 1H27
Customers remain focused on value and are increasingly shopping during promotional events, amid heightened competitive activity
Company page: JB Hi-Fi (JBH)
Super Retail like-for-like sales stall as Macpac slumps 12%
[8:51 am] Super Retail’s like-for-like sales growth has stalled so far in FY27, with every brand slowing from its first seven weeks and three of four now tracking below UBS forecasts for the rest of the half.
Group like-for-like sales up 0.2%, with total sales up 2.0%
Supercheap Auto like-for-like sales up 2.5%, slowing from 4.0% in the first seven weeks, with total sales up 3.4%
rebel like-for-like sales up 0.3%, down from 1.1% in the first seven weeks, implying recent trading is below 2.3% growth ests for weeks 8–26
BCF like-for-like sales down 1.1% on higher fuel prices, implying recent trading is below 1.9% growth ests for weeks 8–26
Macpac like-for-like sales down 11.7% on promotional timing and a milder winter, implying recent trading is well below ests of down 3.6% for weeks 8–26
Supercheap Auto and rebel both grew market share, according to CommBank iQ data
Company page: Super Retail Group (SUL)
Freightways lifts Q1 profit 12% as high fuel prices weigh on demand
[8:42 am] Freightways grew revenue and earnings by double digits in the September quarter, helped by an acquisition and higher fuel recoveries, but expects customer volumes to stay subdued until fuel prices fall.
Revenue rose 17.6% to NZ$408.3m, driven by higher fuel recovery and the VTFE acquisition
Operating earnings (EBITA) rose 12.9% to NZ$50.0m
NPAT rose 12% to NZ$26.2m
Express package margins fell to 12.2% from 13.3% on weaker demand for premium services and fuel levies that add revenue but no margin
NZ express package volumes rose 2.9%, with market share gains contributing 2.6 percentage points
Same-customer volumes are expected to stay subdued in both markets, improving progressively once fuel prices fall sustainably
Company page: Freightways Group (FRW)
Suncorp flags around 3% FY27 premium growth after losing major commercial contract
[8:42 am] Suncorp has updated its premium growth outlook for this financial year after losing a large commercial contract and absorbing a weaker New Zealand dollar, while leaving its margin guidance unchanged.
FY27 GWP growth guidance of around 3% implies about $15.9bn vs $16.0bn ests (1% miss), with ests pencilling in 4% growth
The lost commercial contract cuts FY27 GWP by $125m, with the full impact landing in 1H
The weaker NZ dollar is expected to shave about 70bps off growth in Australian dollar terms
The underlying insurance margin is expected in the top half of its 10-12% range, modestly skewed to 2H
All other FY27 guidance is unchanged, including the $250m buyback and restructuring costs of about $30m
Company page: Suncorp Group (SUN)
Bank of Canada hikes to 2.5%, Bank of Japan expected to wait until December
[8:39am] Central banks are responding to higher inflation, with the Bank of Canada raising rates on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan expected to follow in December.
The Bank of Canada lifted its policy rate 25bps to 2.5%, its first hike since July 2023
Governor Tiff Macklem said further hikes may be needed, though the bank will proceed carefully
Canadian inflation is running at 3.1%
The Bank of Japan is expected to hold at 1.25% at its meeting ending Friday, with none of the economists polled by Bloomberg tipping a hike
Markets price an 82% chance of a BOJ hike in December, according to Totan ICAP
Japanese inflation rose 2.1% y/y in September, topping 2% for the first time this year
Oil climbs as US reportedly readies Iran strikes and Tehran rebuffs Qatari peace plan
[8:35 am] Oil rose on Wednesday on reports the US is preparing renewed strikes on Iran after next week’s midterm elections, while Tehran dismissed a fresh Qatari proposal to end the eight-month war.
Gulf countries were told to prepare for US strikes on Iran after the midterms, according to The Wall Street Journal
Houthi militants said they struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom’s largest, with a ballistic missile
The US Navy told ships to avoid unnecessary Hormuz transits, warning of delays from blockade enforcement
Iranian attacks on ships hit a wartime high of almost 30 in October
Qatar presented Iran with a new seven-day peace plan, but a senior Iranian official dismissed it as unacceptable ideas rather than an offer
Hyperscaler credit spreads hit widest levels as AI debt floods the market
[8:34 am] Wall Street is struggling to absorb the wave of debt funding data centres and AI chips, pushing more of the risk onto insurers, pension funds and private lenders.
Hyperscaler credit spreads are at their widest since the AI buildout drove the big cloud providers into debt markets last year
Citi said the group trades well wide of where its credit ratings suggest, citing a persistent oversupply of new debt
Raising data centre funding has become significantly harder in recent months, according to more than 30 bankers, fund managers and private equity executives
Oaktree co-CEO Armen Panossian warned the credit market is becoming saturated with data centre loans
Several insurers are nearing or at their limits on data centre exposure, according to a Willis Towers Watson survey in May
Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz said nervousness is probably close to peak, pointing to Meta’s equity raise and Anthropic’s planned IPO as signs of relief
UK gilts rally as Healey’s first budget sticks to fiscal discipline
[8:34 am] UK bonds and stocks rose on Wednesday after Chancellor John Healey delivered a well-flagged first budget that reassured investors the government will stick to its fiscal pledges.
The 10-year gilt yield fell as much as 4bps to 5.30%
Long-dated gilt issuance was cut 31% to £15.5bn from £22.4bn previously forecast, according to the Debt Management Office
Total gilt sales of £250.6bn are planned this fiscal year vs £249.2bn ests (0.6% above)
The budget leaves £15bn of headroom against the government’s fiscal rules in 2029-30, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility
Bank and gambling stocks led gains on relief that taxes on both sectors were less punitive than feared
The 10-year gilt yield traded in a 7bp range as of 3pm London time, vs 22bps on the day of Rachel Reeves’ first budget in 2024 and 40bps during Liz Truss’ 2022 mini-budget
Alphabet cloud sales double as search falls short
[8:31 am] Booming AI demand pushed Alphabet’s cloud business past expectations in the September quarter, but softer advertising sales left group operating income short of ests.
Revenue up 25% to $127.6bn vs $128.22bn ests (in line)
Google Cloud revenue up 103% to $30.7bn vs $29.15bn ests (5% beat), driven by AI infrastructure and TPU demand
Search & other revenue of $63.4bn vs $64.99bn ests (2% miss)
Operating income up 30% to $40.6bn vs $43.23bn ests (6% miss)
EPS of $2.12 includes a $0.55 hit from an $8.7bn paper loss on Alphabet’s SpaceX stake
Microsoft rises after hours on 48% Azure growth, but new bookings slip
[8:23 am] Microsoft shares rose 2.7% in after-hours trade after the company beat expectations on the top and bottom line in the September quarter, its first under a new segment structure.
Revenue rose 19% y/y to US$92.28bn vs US$90.63bn ests (1.8% beat)
EPS rose 18% y/y to US$4.89 vs US$4.73 ests (3.4% beat)
Azure revenue grew 48% to US$33.17bn, lifting the new Agents and Infra segment to US$76.8bn vs US$75.6bn ests (1.6% beat)
Contracted backlog rose 73% y/y to US$677bn but was broadly flat on the prior quarter, with new bookings down 12% y/y
Capex was US$45.2bn including leases, with about three-quarters spent on short-lived assets such as chips and networking equipment
OpenAI paid Microsoft US$10bn in the quarter, about 11% of revenue and more than Xbox and Windows combined
Source: YahooFinance
Fed holds rates in 10-2 vote as Warsh moves to fewer rate decisions from 2027
[8:22 am] The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday without signalling a December hike, with Chair Kevin Warsh saying politics played no role in a decision made less than a week before the US midterm elections.
Two officials dissented, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both favouring a 25bp hike
The statement upgraded the pace of growth to strong from solid, while repeating that inflation remains elevated
One of eight meetings in 2027 will be strategy-only, with no rate decision or statement, rising to two in 2028
The 2-year Treasury yield fell as much as 4bps to 4.7% as traders read the schedule change as dovish
Traders price about an 85% chance of a 25bp hike on 9 December, with three hikes in total expected by mid-2027
The S&P 500 closed up 0.28%, snapping a run of six straight Fed-day losses
Good morning!
[8:20 am] ASX 200 futures are up 40 pts (+0.45%). Here's what happened overnight:
Major US benchmarks up for a third straight session, with stocks holding up amid a catalyst rich session featuring the Fed and mega cap tech earnings
S&P 500 (+0.28%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq (+0.27%), Dow (+0.19%), Russell 2000 (+0.41%)
Fed held rates in a 10-2 vote with two officials backing a hike, while Warsh announced fewer rate-setting meetings from 2027 and traders priced a December move
Microsoft rallied 4.5% after hours as Azure growth accelerated to 48%, while Alphabet tanked 9% as an earnings miss overshadowed Google Cloud revenue more than doubling to $30.71bn
