ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 13th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, October 13. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

Lithium and data centre stocks extend losses as defensives firm

[2:00 pm] Lithium stocks are leading the intraday losers, with Vulcan Energy, Mineral Resources, Elevra, PLS and IGO down between 4.6% and 7% from the open as lithium prices tumble. Data centre names NextDC and Megaport are also sliding amid the global chip selloff, while Zip has shed 6.7% since the open.

On the flip side, Lovisa leads the intraday gainers, up 4.3% from the open, while Brambles, ARB, AGL and Lottery Corp have each added more than 2% as investors favour defensives and select consumer names.

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UBS says card surcharge ban could add 0.2% to CPI, double RBA estimate

[1:20 pm] UBS believes the RBA is underestimating the inflation hit from the card surcharge ban, though rising fuel prices remain the bigger driver of inflation.

• RBA estimates a small, one-off 0.1% lift to CPI, based on $1.6bn in card surcharges against $1.4tn of household consumption

• UBS sees a 0.2%+ impact as a more plausible baseline, with merchants potentially using the ban as cover to pass through broader cost pressures

• Round-up pricing on items such as coffee suggests pass-through could exceed the surcharge itself, with 17% of cafes lifting prices by an average of about 49c

• Fuel prices are tracking 7% higher month-on-month in October, contributing 23bps to monthly CPI

• Q4 CPI forecasts of 3.9% headline and 3.5% trimmed mean year-on-year carry upside risk, already above the RBA’s 3.6% and 3.3%

• UBS still expects a 25bps hike in November, with a stronger October CPI raising the risk of a December hike if the RBA pauses

Source: UBS

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NAB business confidence slumps to bottom 5% of history

[12:42 pm] Business confidence fell for a third straight month as higher interest rates, global uncertainty and elevated fuel costs weigh on firms.

• Business confidence fell 4pts to -13, now 18pts below its long-run average and in the bottom 5% of readings in the survey’s history

• Business conditions held at -1, 7pts below the long-run average

• Employment index fell 3pts to its lowest level in five years, signalling a risk that labour demand slows from here

• Capacity utilisation eased 0.2ppts to 82.3% but remains about 1ppt above its long-run average

• Purchase cost growth edged up to 2.4% in quarterly terms while final price growth held at 0.8%, further squeezing margins

• Forward orders fell 1pt to -1, around 7pts below pre-conflict levels, even as capex rose above its long-run average

Source: NAB

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Kospi tumbles 6% as global chip selloff deepens

[1238 pm] South Korea’s chip-heavy market sank as concerns over Chinese competition and stretched AI valuations intensified.

• Kospi fell as much as 6.2% and is now down a third from its June record, trading below its 200-day moving average

• Samsung and SK Hynix each fell more than 7%, on track for a fifth straight loss, with Samsung’s record earnings last week failing to lift the stock

• CXMT plans a higher-density server memory product by the end of 2026, reviving fears about Chinese competition

• Foreign investors have net sold more than US$6bn of Kospi shares in October

• Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said many AI investors “have no clue what they are investing in”, adding financing may be a bigger problem than chip shortages

Source: Bloomberg

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ASX 200 slips as tech, miners and property retreat

[12:17 pm] The ASX 200 is down 30 points or 0.35%, with weakness across tech, miners and real estate. It’s not a great look for tech, which has failed to follow through on a two-day rally despite US software stocks returning to year-to-date highs. Miners have undercut their recent low to sit at a two-month low, while real estate stocks have handed back half of last week’s 4% four-day rally, which came after the sector bounced off its lowest level since January 2024. The session has a defensive tilt, with energy and utilities broadly higher on rising oil prices, and staples and financials also outperforming.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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XRF Scientific jumps 16% on strong September quarter

[12:12 pm] XRF Scientific shares opened 5.1% higher at $1.74 and have since extended gains to 15.7% at $1.91, though the stock remains 5% lower year-to-date.

• Revenue up 38% to $21.1m, or up 25% excluding a one-off $2.05m precious metals sale

• Consumables revenue up 27% to $5.6m, with conditions remaining positive into October

• Capital equipment revenue up 18% to $5.9m, with Orbis up 66% to $2.4m on demand from commercial labs and the gold sector

• Precious metals revenue up 63% to $9.6m, including the one-off sale tied to the closure of a platinum inventory lease

• Profit before tax up 30% to $4.4m, including unadjusted CGA integration costs

• December quarter is expected to be another strong period, with new CGA instrument revenue and significant growth from Orbis

Company page: XRF Scientific (XRF)

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BlackRock downgrades US stocks, turns bullish on short-term Treasuries

[12:11 pm] BlackRock has unwound an underweight call on Treasuries first made in October 2020, when the US 10-year yield was near 0.9%, after it surged above 5.2%.

• Short-term Treasuries upgraded to overweight and longer-term debt to neutral from underweight

• US equities downgraded to neutral from overweight on potential volatility around the AI buildout, with US agency mortgage-backed securities also cut to neutral

• Fed hike expectations look excessive to BlackRock, with swaps pricing at least three quarter-point hikes over the next 12 months

• Bond yields could rise another 75bps over 12 months before Treasury total returns turn negative

• AI conviction remains intact, with BlackRock still favouring AI-related companies and listed infrastructure and ready to add risk at better entry points

Source: Bloomberg

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RBA minutes point to greater domestic capacity pressures

[11:50 am] The full minutes show the RBA increasingly sees inflation being driven by an overheating domestic economy, not just higher oil prices.

• Unanimous decision to lift the cash rate 25bps to 4.60%, with the board ready to increase it further if required

• July’s inflation surprise more likely reflected domestic capacity pressures than pass-through from the Middle East conflict, staff assessed

• Staff are questioning whether the unemployment rate consistent with the inflation target is higher than thought, with the jobless rate at 4.6% in August

• Market pricing at the meeting implied another 15bps of hikes by year-end and a further 30bps in the first half of 2027

• Australian equities fell about 5% between meetings on weaker earnings expectations for banks, real estate and consumer discretionary

• AI valuations were flagged as a global financial stability risk, with some pricing embedding very favourable long-run earnings assumptions

Source: RBA

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NSW backs gas over batteries in latest firming tender

[11:48 am] New South Wales has effectively shut batteries out of its latest tender for backup power as it prepares for its ageing coal plants to close.

• Tender for 1,500MW of firming capacity, most of which is expected to come from gas peaking plants

• Bidders must be net energy contributors and able to supply for at least eight hours, ruling out most storage systems

• Gas lost out in the state’s previous backup tenders, mainly to battery storage

• Origin delayed the closure of Eraring, Australia’s largest coal-fired power station, by almost two years to 2029 after the grid operator flagged reliability risks

• NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe said “We’re building the airplane as it’s flying, and we can’t afford to have loss of reliability”

Source: Bloomberg

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Lithium stocks smashed as spodumene sinks 12%

[11:08 am] Lithium prices tumbled across the board after the EU moved to cap Chinese hybrid imports, dragging ASX lithium stocks sharply lower.

• Spodumene 6% (FOB Australia) fell 12.4% to US$1,485 a tonne, down 31.4% over three months

• Lithium carbonate and hydroxide in China both fell 8.3%, to US$16,433 and US$14,790 a tonne respectively

• Wuxi lithium carbonate index dropped 12.8% and Guangzhou futures 10.5%, both down more than 30% over three months

• EU cap limits Chinese hybrid imports to 350,000 a year from as early as 1 December, roughly 45% below this year’s run rate

• Goldman expects lithium markets to shift from deficit to near-balance in Q4, then into surplus over the next two years

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:41 am] Electro Optic Systems tops the leaderboard after a volatile few sessions. The company announced its largest contract on record, a £370m (about $700m) deal to supply a nationwide counter-drone defence system to the Kuwaiti government. Shares surged as much as 22% on the day (9-Oct) before reversing to close 4.2% lower, then fell another 4% the following session. Elsewhere, energy stocks are catching a bid, while Arena REIT extended its rebound after Edge Early Learning’s administrator found buyers for the last seven Edge-operated centres on Arena’s properties, meaning all 27 now have proposed replacement operators.

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Top ASX 200 losers

[10:41 am] Software stocks experience a pullback after a sizeable two-day rally, while lithium and uranium stocks continue to spiral lower.

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Raiz plunges 48% on historical tax compliance failures

[10:13 am] Raiz Invest shares plunged 48% to 26 cents, taking year-to-date losses to 66%, after the company flagged potentially material tax liabilities dating back to 2015.

• Tax withholding was not applied and related reports were not lodged with the ATO for certain Raiz funds since 2015, identified in a review by new CEO Craig Keary

• Potential liabilities include penalties, general interest charges and remediation costs, with the Board flagging a possible material impact it cannot yet estimate

• Independent review by WTS Australia is continuing and may identify further matters, with the number of affected account holders not yet quantified

• Customer funds remain secure with independent custodians, with ASIC and the ATO notified and super fund members unaffected

• FY26 underlying EBITDA of $5.5m and free cash flow of $2.7m, with cash of $15.4m at 30 June

Company page: Raiz Invest (RZI)

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EDU Holdings enrolments hit record as domestic intake offsets visa curbs

[9:55 am] EDU Holdings’ shift towards domestic and postgraduate students is cushioning the hit from tighter international student rules.

• Group enrolments up 26% to a record 7,489 in T3'26, with Higher Education now 88% of the total from 75%

• Higher Education enrolments up 45% to a record 6,571

• Higher Education new student enrolments flat at 1,074, as a 78% jump in domestic commencements offset a 10% fall in international

• Domestic students made up 20% of Ikon’s T3'26 intake from 11%, while postgraduate students rose to 28% of Higher Education enrolments from 14%

• VET enrolments down 36% to 918 in T4'26 amid an ongoing contraction in the international VET market

• Student visa reforms from 2 October require most applicants to apply offshore and double the restricted transfer period to 12 months, which may reduce onshore transfers

EDU is a rather intriguing small cap. The stock is up 33% YTD (and a 10-bagger since 2025). Earnings have surged, with the latest 1H26 result showed NPAT up 49% to $9.3m, with $24m in cash and no debt, and the interim dividend tripled to 3cps from 1cps a year earlier.

Company page: EDU Holdings (EDU)

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Baby Bunting reaffirms FY27 guidance as comp sales slow

[9:52 am] Baby Bunting held its FY27 profit guidance at its AGM, though early trading is running below its full-year sales growth target as stores close for refurbishment.

• FY27 pro forma NPAT guidance of $19-21m maintained, on total sales of $585m to $600m

• Comparable store sales up 2.2% in the first 14 weeks vs the full-year target of 3% to 5%, having moderated from 4.3% at week 6

• Store of the Future refurbishments are delivering an average 20% sales uplift, with 10 to 12 planned in FY27 and six in the first half

• Gross margin is tracking to plan for the 42% FY27 target, up from 41.2% in FY26

• Long-term EBITDA margin target of more than 10% vs 6.8% in FY26

• Management is closely monitoring trading given interest rate rises and cost-of-living pressures ahead of November, Boxing Day and the June Storktake

Company page: Baby Bunting (BBN)

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GQG outflows ease in September, Macquarie stays Neutral

[9:48 am] GQG Partners’ September outflows were the smallest in four months, though Macquarie remains cautious on longer-term flows given persistent fund underperformance.

• Net outflows of US$2.3bn vs US$2.4bn ests (4% beat), improving from US$4.3bn in August and US$4.5bn in July

• Emerging Markets led outflows at US$1.0bn, equal to 35% of FUM annualised

• FUM of US$149.2bn vs US$148.0bn ests (1% beat), flat on August

• Relative fund performance remains weak, with Emerging Markets trailing its benchmark by 16.3% over one year and 11.7% over three years

• EPS ests lifted 0.3% for FY26 and 1.2% for FY27, with flow assumptions unchanged at average monthly outflows of US$3.7bn

• Target unchanged at $1.10 with Neutral retained, with the implied 11% TSR including a 14.5% unfranked yield

Source: Macquarie

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Arena REIT now has buyers lined up for all 27 Edge centres

[9:44 am] All 27 Arena-owned centres operated by collapsed childcare provider Edge Early Learning now have proposed replacement operators, removing much of the vacancy risk that hammered the stock.

• Final seven centres are among 22 Edge businesses being sold to six parties, including Montessori Academy at two SA centres, after Goodstart agreed to take over 20 Arena centres on 7 October

• Rent is being received on all 27 centres while the sales progress, though all deals remain subject to due diligence, regulatory approvals and lease assignments

• Of the four centres Arena controls directly, one has an executed lease and two have term sheets with Montessori Academy

• Bank guarantee and security deposits of about $4m are held over the Edge leases

• Shares fell 31% over 10-11 August when Edge’s troubles emerged and were down as much as 39.5% by 5 October, before rallying 13% on the Goodstart deal, leaving them 28% below pre-news levels

Company page: Arena REIT (ARF)

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Macquarie lifts Southern Cross Electrical target on Entire acquisition

[9:34 am] Macquarie views Southern Cross Electrical’s $112 million purchase of Entire Operations as a strategically sensible deal close to its core business that should be margin accretive over time.

• Purchase price of $112m equals 6.4x EV/EBIT, or 4.0x on the $70m upfront component, vs Southern Cross trading at 12.8x FY27e EV/EBIT

• Entire delivered FY26 EBIT of $17.5m on revenue of $191m, a 9.2% margin

• Deferred consideration of $41m includes $26m if Entire delivers at least $17m EBIT across FY27-29, with the balance tied to targets implying 16% EBIT CAGR

• FY27 underlying EBITDA guidance lifted to at least $110m vs $119m ests

• EPS ests lifted 10% for FY27 and 13-14% for FY28-31, with a 3-year EPS CAGR of more than 35%

• Target lifted 7% to $6.00 from $5.60 with Outperform retained, with the stock on 15.8x FY28e PE vs domestic peers on 18.5x

We noted the napkin maths in the blog yesterday: "SCEE’s deal looks very accretive at first glance, with up to $112.1m paid from cash (under 8% of its $1.43bn market cap) delivering at least 18% EPS accretion from FY27. Wouldn't be surprising to see a strong market reaction this morning". The stock opened the session 3.6% higher ($4.80) and finished up 7.7% to $4.99.

Company page: Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE)

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Copper hits two-week high as Codelco avalanche adds to Chile supply woes

[9:24 am] Copper rallied on hopes that higher bond yields will limit further central bank rate hikes, while fresh disruptions in Chile added to supply concerns.

• Copper advanced 0.8% overnight to US$6.81/lb, within 2% of the 22-Sep record close of US$6.92/lb

• Cash copper premium over three-month prices reached $170 a tonne, the highest since early September and a sign of tight near-term supply

• Two workers died in an avalanche at Codelco’s El Teniente mine, with the open pit halted, though it accounts for less than 10% of the mine’s output

• Chilean labour tensions are adding to supply risks, with a strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela and a wage dispute at BHP’s Escondida

• China’s import demand gauge hit a four-year high last week, while inventories remain low after the national holiday

Copper may be trading near record highs, but miners aren’t buying it. The Global X Copper Miners ETF rose just 0.4% overnight and remains 13% below its 27 August record close, showing a clear reluctance to underwrite the recent rally in the metal. The reason isn’t clear, it could be macro headwinds (soaring US dollar, elevated yields, Brent at US$105), scepticism that the price strength won't last given the threat of US tariffs on refined copper, or simply a lack of risk appetite.

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Wia drilling extends Kokoseb underground target by 470m

[9:22 am] Wia Gold’s latest results are building the case for an underground operation beneath the planned open pit at its 3.78Moz Kokoseb gold project in Namibia.

• Central Underground Exploration Target extended by about 470m, including 170m to the northeast and 300m of confirmed continuity to the southwest

• Underground Resource Envelope drilling returned a best hit of 15.5m at 6.53g/t gold from 499.5m, including 3m at 27.93g/t

• Intermediate and Deep High-Grade target returned 29m at 1.91g/t from 755m and 6m at 6.06g/t from 623m

• Southern Underground Exploration Target continues down-plunge and remains open at depth, with 18m at 2.78g/t from 606m

• Six diamond rigs are still turning, with results reported from 33 holes for 18,476m

Company page: Wia Gold (WIA)

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Minerals 260 grade control drilling backs Bullabulling resource

[9:21 am] Initial grade control results at Minerals 260’s 6.2Moz Bullabulling gold project near Coolgardie are tracking in line with resource modelling.

• Grade control results at the 2.3Moz Phoenix deposit are consistent with the resource model, supporting an upgrade of Inferred material to Indicated

• Bacchus returned 1.1m at 290g/t gold from 170m

• Shallow Phoenix hits include 7m at 10.9g/t from 7m and 6m at 17.1g/t from 19m

• Widest grade control hit of 21m at 3.4g/t from 27m, including 1m at 52.6g/t

• Latest results cover 53 infill and extensional holes for 11,674m and 320 grade control holes for 25,970m

Company page: Minerals 260 (MI6)

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Cobre maps staged path to 25,000tpa copper at Sierra Atacama

[9:14 am] Cobre has outlined a fully funded, modular expansion of Sierra Atacama that leans heavily on refurbishing existing processing infrastructure.

• Stage 1 targets about 18,000tpa of copper cathode by refurbishing the existing SX circuit and recommissioning the idle second electrowinning bay, with tender award expected by quarter end

• Stage 2 targets about 25,000tpa by recommissioning the unused second SX line and building a new electrowinning bay, with conceptual engineering underway

• Stage 3 will evaluate a larger case of up to about 50,000tpa once the 40,000m drilling program, updated resource and expanded open-pit design are complete

• Environmental approval for the 25,000tpa case, covering grid power, water supply and additional open-pit areas, is targeted for submission by the end of 2026

• No capex or production timeline has been disclosed for any stage

Company page: Cobre (CBE)

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Vection lands $19.5m Italian supply deal

[9:13 am] The minimum commitment equals close to half of Vection’s roughly $40 million market cap, though it is spread out to mid-2030, so not as punchy as the headline suggests.

• Retelit Digital Service has committed to at least $19.5m in cumulative revenue on Vection’s Algho AI, Renderia and 3DFrame platforms and its kiosk and appliance hardware

• Revenue milestones of $5m by 31 December 2027, a further $6.5m by 30 June 2029 and a further $8m by 30 June 2030

• Agreement runs to 30 June 2030 with no automatic renewal

• RDS has been appointed a Tier 1 partner under Vection’s global partner program, authorised to sell across Italy and Europe through its dealer network

Company page: Vection Technologies (VR1)

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Wildcat’s September quarter: $76m cash ahead of DFS and maiden resource

[9:11 am] Wildcat Resources is approaching a catalyst-heavy end to 2026, with its Tabba Tabba definitive feasibility study and a maiden Bolt Cutter Central resource both due this half.

• Cash of $76.1m at 30 September vs a market cap of about $390m, after Tranche 1 of a $60m placement raised $56m before costs

• Tabba Tabba DFS is on track for completion in CY2026, with placement funds going towards development and early works

• Pegmatite rights over E45/2364 add about 7km of the Tabba Tabba Shear, tripling the explorable strike length

• Tabba Tabba drilling returned 13.9m at 2.0% Li2O from 45.2m and 25.1m at 1.2% Li2O from 56.5m

• Bolt Cutter Central has a mineralised footprint of about 2.3km by 0.8km that remains open, with hits including 16m at 1.5% Li₂O from 116m

Company page: Wildcat Resources (WC8)

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Chinese lithium futures slump on EU hybrid cap

[8:58 am] Chinese lithium futures sank after the EU moved to cap Chinese hybrid imports, adding to concerns about softening battery demand.

• Chinese lithium carbonate futures fell 8.4% to 108,760 yuan a tonne, now down 48% from the mid-May high of 209,880 yuan a tonne

• EU cap limits Chinese hybrid imports to 350,000 a year from as early as 1 December, roughly 45% below this year’s run rate of 650,000

• Quota rises 6% a year to about 417,000 by year four, around eight times the annualised import level of October 2024

The bellwether PLS Group ran almost 500% from its 30 May 2025 low of $1.13 to a record high of $6.68 by 29 May 2026. The stock has since halved to $3.37 and down 19% year-to-date.

PLS Group price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Strong earnings can outrun rising yields, Goldman data shows

[8:50 am] Goldman’s data since 1950 shows that even when 10-year yields rise more than 50bps, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12-month return of about 18% when earnings growth tops 20%, compared with under 5% when earnings growth is below 10%.

So really, solid markets and rising yields can co-exist, as long as earnings growth/momentum remains strong (and probably why the ASX is going nowhere).

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Goldman lifts Brent forecast to US$90 as risks skew higher

[8:49 am] Goldman Sachs still expects Gulf supply to adapt and pull crude prices lower over time, but ongoing supply risks are slowing the easing in the risk premium.

• Brent Dec26 forecast raised to US$90 a barrel from US$85, with the risk premium estimated at just over US$20, while the 2027 average of US$80 is unchanged

• Persian Gulf exports, including dark exports, have recovered to their 2025 average, with the global market roughly balanced in September

• Restocking demand from low inventories outside OECD commercial storage lifts Goldman’s September Brent fair value by US$6 to US$80

• Upside scenario sees Brent averaging around US$125 in 2027 if Gulf output stays 5mb/d below Feb26 levels

• Downside scenario sees Brent falling into the US$60s in 2027 if Gulf output rises 1mb/d above Feb26 levels

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Brent nears US$106 as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia escalate

[8:44 am] Oil climbed to its highest in almost a month as attacks on Saudi Arabia and Gulf shipping outweighed the prospect of extra Russian supply.

• Brent up 1.5% to US$105.89 a barrel

• Houthi strike on Riyadh’s main airport killed 12 and injured more than 300, with further drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia on Sunday and Monday

• Trump is considering joining Saudi retaliation against the Houthis in Yemen

• At least 10 VLCCs and several Suezmax tankers heading to Fujairah stopped or reversed course, threatening the transfer workaround that restored Gulf exports to near prewar levels

• Saudi Arabia plans to lift pipeline capacity bypassing Hormuz by 40% to 10m barrels a day within two to three years

• Zelenskyy said Russia violated Trump’s energy ceasefire by attacking a Ukrainian gas facility

• UK PM Burnham said Iran’s IRGC “almost certainly” directed the alleged terror plot at RAF Fairford, with two Iranian nationals sanctioned

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India inflation hits near two-year high, backing RBI hikes

[8:42 am] India’s inflation is closing in on the top of the RBI’s 2% to 6% target band, reinforcing last week’s first rate hike in almost four years.

• CPI rose 5.54% year-on-year in September vs 5.58% ests (in line), up from 4.83% in August and the highest since late 2024

• Food inflation climbed to 7.74% from 5.97%, with deficient rainfall expected to add pressure

• RBI hiked 25bps to 5.50% last week and expects inflation to average 6% in the December quarter, with Elara Securities tipping two more hikes by end-March

• India 10-year yield rose about 10bps to 7.40%

• Amundi sees a rebound in Indian equities once the Iran war ends, after the Nifty 50 fell nearly 14% this year on more than US$30bn of foreign outflows

Source: Bloomberg

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Microsoft to deploy over a million in-house AI chips next year

[8:41 am] Microsoft unveiled its third-generation Maia 300 AI chip as it looks to power its AI software with mostly homegrown hardware.

• Deployment of potentially more than a million Maia 300 chips is planned next year, in “multi-gigawatt deployments”

• Efficiency claim of about 40% more useful computing per megawatt than leading GPU-based systems, though Microsoft did not name the comparison

• Each rack holds 96 chips using about 167 kilowatts, vs 142 kilowatts for Nvidia’s 72-GPU GB300 racks

• Chiplet design uses TSMC 2-nanometre technology for key compute and cheaper 3-nanometre for data movement

• Capex is expected to top US$175bn this calendar year

Source: Bloomberg

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Micron, SK Hynix slide as China’s CXMT flags memory breakthrough

[8:40 am] Memory chip stocks fell after Chinese rival ChangXin Memory Technologies reported progress on a new cell design also being pursued by the industry’s biggest players.

• Micron fell 3.9%, SK Hynix’s US listing dropped 4% and Sandisk slid 6%, while Samsung fell 4% as the Kospi dropped 3.65%

• CXMT plans to launch a new server memory product built on the architecture by the end of 2026

• Micron is down about 16% from its June all-time high

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Firmus IPO collapse raises bar for Asian AI infrastructure deals

[8:39 am] The pulled float of Nvidia-backed Australian data centre operator Firmus Grid is forcing investors to separate AI infrastructure names with earnings from those still building.

• Firmus withdrew a raise of up to US$5.5bn after investors baulked at a US$30bn valuation, and is now exploring a private round with existing investors

• Only 46MW of its 912MW pipeline has been built

• Asia-Pacific equity raisings have hit nearly US$250bn this year, after about US$260bn in 2025

• Recent debuts are struggling, with Luxshare down 20% and Zhongji Innolight down 7% since July, and Z.AI and MiniMax down more than 70% from record highs

• Future IPOs will need stronger contracted offtake, clearer visibility on energised megawatts and more conservative leverage, says NYU’s Winston Ma

Source: Bloomberg

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US bank stocks slump into correction ahead of earnings

[8:38 am] US bank shares have tumbled despite 10-year yields above 5%, upending the view that the sector benefits from higher rates.

• Over the past month JPMorgan is down 6%, Citi 6.5%, Wells Fargo 7%, Morgan Stanley 11%, Goldman Sachs 12% and Bank of America 13%

• KBW Nasdaq Bank Index is more than 14% below its August peak

• Deal pipeline concerns are weighing, with OpenAI’s IPO pushed to 2027 and Oura’s listing delayed, according to Evercore ISI

• AI disruption fears include deposit competition from AI cash-yield tools and new agentic trading features at Robinhood and Coinbase

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In a nutshell: Wall Street flat as chipmakers slide

[8:37 am] US stocks drifted on the slowest trading day of 2026 as investors held fire ahead of the earnings season and Wednesday’s CPI print.

• S&P 500 down 0.06% to 7,807 and the Nasdaq fell 0.44%, while the Dow rose 0.38% as chipmakers posted their longest losing streak since July

• Earnings season kicks off Tuesday with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Wells Fargo, with S&P 500 Q3 earnings ests between 25% and 30% growth year-on-year

• Goldman Sachs upgraded global stocks to overweight from neutral on a three-month view, citing a valuation de-rating and healthy profit outlook

• Cleveland Fed’s Hammack said a restrictive stance is appropriate and favoured smaller, quicker adjustments, but stopped short of backing an October hike

• Energy sector ETF hit a record high on rising oil, while Salesforce rose 2% after a Bank of America double upgrade to buy with a target of US$285 from US$160

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Good morning!

[8:28 am] ASX 200 futures are up 9 pts (+0.10%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street finished mixed and fairly flattish as renewed chipmaker weakness drove a rotation into defensives and value

  • S&P 500 (-0.06%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.07%)

  • Nasdaq (-0.44%), Dow (+0.38%), Russell 2000 (-0.45%)

• China's memory breakthrough hit Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung, adding to the AI hardware wobble

• US Dollar Index climbed 0.3% to 102.58, the highest since April 2025, while US Treasury market was shut for Columbus day

• Brent pushed above US$105 as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia outweighed Trump's Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire