ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 25th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, August 25. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

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New updates

RBA holds at 4.35% but keeps the door open to another hike

[1:29 pm] The July minutes show a board that seriously considered raising rates again, ultimately deciding it had time to watch the data before acting.

• Cash rate held unanimously at 4.35% after three increases in 2026, with financial conditions now judged somewhat restrictive and the rate sitting at the top of neutral rate estimates

• The board explicitly debated a 25bp increase and retained a tightening bias, with several members seeing it as quite possible upside inflation risks crystallise and force further hikes

• Trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.6% in the June quarter and is forecast to stay above 3% until mid-2027, only reaching around 2.5% in late 2027, with staff judging risks skewed to the upside

• Housing prices have fallen around 1.5% from their March peak and new loan demand has dropped sharply, particularly from investors, while business credit continues to grow strongly across sectors

• Unemployment is forecast to rise gradually to 4.8% by end-2028 with labour market spare capacity only emerging from late 2027, and productivity forecasts were downgraded again

• AI and data centre investment is now a live upside risk to both demand and inflation, with the RBA also flagging volatility in AI-linked equities and wider spreads on some of their bonds, and Australian equities underperforming global peers over 2026

Source: RBA

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Healthcare stocks at fresh six-month highs

[12:56 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index is up 1.5%, trading at the highest since 12 February and up 44% since the 3 June low.

S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index chart (Source: TradingView)

Ansell, CSL and Cochlear have all reported better-than-expected results, up solid double digits over the past month. Despite CSL rallying just over 50% in the past month, its just crossed breakeven for the year.

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Tokio Marine reportedly eyes Suncorp as preferred takeover target

[12:52 pm] Japanese insurer Tokio Marine has identified Suncorp as its preferred acquisition target after reviewing several options, according to a Financial Times report, sending both major Australian general insurers sharply higher.

• Tokio Marine reviewed several targets over recent months, including Suncorp, IAG and Canada's Intact Financial

• Suncorp emerged as the preferred target for the Berkshire Hathaway-backed insurer, with Intact deemed too large

• Sources cautioned discussions are ongoing with no certainty a deal results, and Reuters could not independently confirm the report

• Neither Suncorp nor IAG immediately responded to requests for comment

Suncorp and IAG are currently up 6.6% and 4.5% respectively, on the news.

Source: Reuters

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Druckenmiller slams Bessent's bond buyback plan

[12:50 pm] Stanley Druckenmiller, who mentored Scott Bessent early in his hedge fund career, has publicly criticised the Treasury Secretary's plan to ramp up purchases of long-dated government bonds.

• Writing in a WSJ opinion column, Druckenmiller argued that governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose

• He described the long-term Treasury yield as the most important price in the world and the only fiscal disciplinarian the US has left

• His view is that the move makes little sense in context, with the 10-year yield sitting near the economy's nominal growth rate, which makes financial conditions accommodative rather than restrictive

• He characterised the bond market as a pushover that had only just begun to clear its throat before Treasury moved to quiet it

• Funding long-end buybacks with short-term issuance echoes the Fed's twist operations, but bond investors see this kind of market management by Treasury as mission creep

Source: Bloomberg

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Woodside 1H26 earnings call highlights: $350m cost out, Scope 3 targets retired

[11:52 am] New CEO Liz Westcott used her first result to announce a structural cost target, retire Scope 3 goals and flag a strategic review of Beaumont New Ammonia.

• On costs, Woodside is "announcing today a structural cost reduction target of $350 million per year to be delivered from 2028", covering "operating costs, corporate overheads, as well as some sustaining CapEx"

• On new energy, the company has "taken the disciplined decision to retire our Scope 3 investment and emissions abatement targets", as markets for hydrogen, ammonia and CCS "have developed more slowly than anticipated"

• On the energy market, "the temporary withdrawal of 20% of LNG supply and 13% of oil supply from global markets as a result of the Middle East conflict drove increased customer demand", with "restricted supply and price volatility... expected to continue for some time"

• On the second half, gearing is guided "back under 20% at 31 December 2026" helped by no Pluto turnaround, strong pricing and the Wheatstone North West Shelf swap, with "more than $100 million of value" from first half trades landing in 2H

• On Louisiana LNG sell down, "we are being patient", with Bechtel's Middle East steel fabrication "unaffected" and alternative supply routes working

• On Bass Strait, the near $1bn, 200PJ four well opportunity hinges on the domestic gas reservation scheme, with Woodside "keenly awaiting further details"

Company page: Woodside (WDS)

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Cedar Woods Properties 1H26 earnings call highlights: margin-led upgrade, demand holding

[11:51 am] Management flagged an upgraded FY26 outlook driven by price growth and lower marketing spend rather than volume alone.

• On the guidance upgrade, "there was more price growth achieved in the half across a number of projects, more settlements come into, have come into the half and will come into the year, and marketing costs", with earnings growth now around "30%-35% for FY 2026" versus the prior "minimum 20%"

• On marketing leverage, "the incredibly strong inquiry that we're getting across the country, you know, we can, we can turn down that marketing spend"

• On interest rates, further hikes would not derail demand given "the chronic shortfall" of housing, with "a couple of rises, we would expect continued widespread demand across our product types"

• On the second half, earnings are first half weighted on "just timing of stages completing", with "slightly less settlements in the second" and a "very big Q1 in FY 2027"

• On acquisitions, "we're not finding vendor expectations too unrealistic", with confidence in continuing to buy "on reasonable return metrics"

• On product mix, "what's outperforming at the moment is more affordable product, be that land, townhouses, or apartments", while the dividend policy is unchanged at a 50% payout ratio

Company page: Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

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ARB Corporation FY26 earnings call highlights: margins recover, engineering spend steps up

[11:51 am] Management pointed to a stronger second half on improved Thai baht margins, with FY27 gross margins guided to the FY26 average.

• On margins, gross margins were "particularly strong in the second half, and even across the year were at the upper end of margins achieved over the last five or six years", with FY27 expected "to trade in line at this stage with the average of 2026 across the full financial year"

• On pricing, two increases were pushed through, the first in August 2025 "just a little over 2%" and the second in February 2026 "between 3.5% and 4%, depending on weightings"

• On cost pressures, "steel prices, of course, are pushing up with labor costs also remaining under pressure", while the Middle East conflict impact is expected "to moderate at some stage"

• On the consumer and vehicle market, "lower new vehicle sales in Australia and constrained consumer discretionary spending weighed on the domestic results", with FY27 new vehicle sales "broadly in line with FY 2026" but a favourable mix on better Toyota supply

• On investment, engineering spend rises "10%-15% per year", R&D is "about AUD 20 million for the year" with only ~$4m capitalised, and marketing spend is forecast to lift after falling in FY26

Company page: ARB Corporation (ARB)

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Australian Ethical Investment FY26 earnings call highlights: margins steady, costs contained

[11:49 am] Management leaned on a steady revenue margin, an unchanged 80% payout ratio and an AI-driven lift in ethical research capacity.

• On revenue margins, the spot margin of 89bps at 30 June 2026 is "expected to remain consistent during FY 2027", though "beyond FY 2027... there will be some modest fee reductions" as the business scales

• On costs, the group will "continue to invest sensibly, targeting expense growth below revenue growth", with the underlying cost to income ratio expected to improve again

• On the dividend, the "payout ratio continues to be 80%, and that gives us that capital flexibility to ensure that we can invest, look for inorganic smaller opportunities"

• On artificial intelligence, AI piloting "supported us to increase our research output in FY26", adding "more than 190 new names to our investable universe"

• On the growth opportunity, the values-aligned "middle market" was sized at roughly $2bn, alongside the recently launched second private markets fund, a multi-asset impact fund

• On governance and licence conditions, added costs are "not, to my mind, material" and "we have agreed with APRA the uplift"

Company page: Australian Ethical Investment (AEF)

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ASX 200 higher as every sector but REITs fires up

[11:44 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is firing up, with all sectors except for Real Estate trading higher. A similar session to Wall Street, where defensives like Staples, Financials and Utilities outperformed. The index is currently up 73 pts (+0.80%) and trading at intraday highs

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:41 am] Another catalyst-rich day for markets, so here's an expanded list of top gainers. ARB Corp is rallying on a better-than-feared FY26 result, Ansell continues to gain after surging 9.5% on Monday (FY26 result at the top-end of guidance, FY27 EPS guidance 7% ahead of ests) and miners, including copper, gold and coal continue to trend higher.

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Top ASX 200 losers

[10:43 am] Here's an expanded list of ASX 200 stocks trading lower this morning, which features a broad pullback for lithium names, a handful of REITs (VCX, SCG) and industrials. Monadelphous is trading sharply lower despite a relatively in-line FY26 result, though management flagged FY27 as a consolidation year after ~50% revenue growth in the last two years.

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SiteMinder opens ~10% higher, evaporates gains within minutes

[10:35 am] Siteminder opened 9.4% higher ($4.18) and within the first minute of trade, was down 2.6% to $3.71. The stock was down as much as 16.5% ($3.18) at 10:30 am.

Siteminder intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

The FY26 result this morning wasn't terrible, but most line items slightly missed Morgan Stanley estimates, including all-important EBITDA margins.

• Revenue up 18.6% reported to $266.1m vs $270.2m Morgan Stanley ests (2% miss)

  • Subscription revenue up 11.6% to $155.2m vs $155.5m ests (in line)

  • Transaction revenue up 30.0% to $110.9m vs $114.7m ests (3% miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 96.5% to $28.1m vs $29.9m ests (6% miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA margin up 419 bps to 10.6% vs. 11.0% ests (40 bp miss)

• Adjusted gross margin up 84 bps to 67.2% vs 66.8% ests (in line)

• Adjusted net loss of $7.6m vs a $4.9m loss in ests, though narrowed from $17.2m in FY25

• Adjusted free cash flow more than doubled to $10.5m, with available funds of $61.6m

• FY27 guidance for adjusted EBITDA margin to expand meaningfully and ARR growth in the 20s on a constant currency and organic basis

Why did the stock rally 10% at the open? Likely retail orders piling in off the "adjusted EBITDA up 96.5%" headline, taking it at face value and propping up the match.

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Viva Energy delivers record first half in line with ests, dividend the beat

[9:50 am] Elevated regional refining margins driven by Middle East supply disruption powered a step-change in earnings, with divisional results tracking ests closely and the dividend well ahead.

Note: comparisons are to Macquarie ests only, not consensus

• Group sales volumes up 1.3% to 8,490ML

• Group EBITDA (RC) up 154.0% to $774.4m vs $776m Macquarie ests (in line)

• Group NPAT (RC) up 492.8% to $371.1m vs $387m ests (4% miss)

• Geelong Refining Margin up 156.4% to US$21.1/bbl, matching ests

• Refining intake up 4.5% to 19.7MMbbl, despite the 15 April incident that curtailed 2Q26 throughput before the RCCU restarted in June

• Convenience & Mobility fuel volumes up 2.0% to 2,626ML

• Convenience sales down 3.8% to $803m, with ex-tobacco sales up 1.3% and tobacco down 16.8%

• Interim dividend up 173.1% to 7.73 cps fully franked vs 6.1 cps ests (27% beat), a 70% payout of C&M and C&I NPAT (RC)

• Net debt down to $1,720.0m from $2,074.8m at 31 December, and 12% below the $1,964m ests

• FY26 capex reaffirmed at approximately $350-400m, with $123.0m spent in the half net of government receipts

• Refining margins expected to stay strong through the rest of FY26, with Geelong achieving US$20.7/bbl in July

• C&I earnings expected to moderate in 2H26 as favourable term supply arrangements unwind, though still ahead of 2H25

Company page: Viva Energy Group (VEA)

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ARB posts softer FY26 but earnings land well ahead of ests

[9:44 am] Weak new vehicle supply weighed on the Aftermarket business through FY26, though a stronger second half and cost control drove a clear profit beat, with improving 4x4 availability setting up FY27.

Note: comparisons are to UBS ests only, not consensus

• Sales revenue down 3.8% to $702.0m vs $708m UBS ests (in line)

• Profit before tax down 8.9% to $123.0m vs $112m ests (10% beat)

• Profit after tax down 5.2% to $92.4m vs $81m ests on a local GAAP basis (14% beat)

• Basic EPS after adjustments down 8.2% to 106.6c vs 99c ests (8% beat)

• Total ordinary dividends flat at 69.0 cps vs 65c ests (6% beat), with no special declared against 50.0 cps last year

• Balance sheet holds $47.9m of cash with no debt

• Aftermarket finished with a stronger second half, a solid order book and improving daily order intake

• FY27 supported by better supply of key 4x4 vehicles, including the reintroduced LandCruiser 70 Series and improved HiLux, Prado and LandCruiser 300 Series availability

• Export trends positive with UK registrations expected to recover and Europe performing well, though the Middle East remains hit by regional conflict

• OEM sales expected to improve in FY27 after a temporary decline, subject to supply chains and platform release timing

• Engineering investment to step up over coming years to lift the cadence of new product releases, with more detail at the AGM

Company page: ARB Corporation (ARB)

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Mader tops $1bn revenue but withholds dividend again to fund growth

[9:37 am] Mader Group closed out its five-year strategic plan with record FY26 earnings, guiding to further double-digit growth in FY27 while retaining all capital.

Note: no broker estimates were available for Mader , so all comparisons are to the prior corresponding period only.

• Revenue up 15% to $1.00bn, in line with guidance and completing the five-year plan set in 2021

• NPAT up 15% to $65.4m, taking the five-year NPAT CAGR to 28% with margins held broadly stable through the scaling period

• Australia revenue up 16% to $797.7m, while North America returned to growth at up 12% (around 17% in constant currency) and closed the year at record headcount

• Free cash flow up 35% to $57.5m, with the medium-term net cash target met at $35.7m as the mix shifts toward less capital-intensive service lines

• No FY26 dividend declared, with capital retained to fund the next five-year plan

• FY27 guidance for revenue of at least $1.13bn (+13%) and NPAT of at least $72.5m (+11%), with NPAT carrying a $3m to $4m drag from growth investment and an expanded incentive program, and growth capex of $30m to $35m

Company page: Mader Group (MAD)

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Woodside beats on earnings and dividend as prices lift through the conflict

[9:34 am] Higher realised prices during the Middle East conflict drove a solid first half, with earnings and the dividend ahead of ests, though gearing pushed above target and Scarborough is now 98% complete.

Note: comparisons are to Macquarie ests (30-Jul) only, not consensus

• Operating revenue up 13% to US$7,446m vs US$7,490m Macquarie ests (in line)

• Underlying EBITDA of US$4,647m vs US$4,617m ests (in line)

• Underlying NPAT up 7% to US$1,334m vs US$1,274m ests (5% beat)

• Reported NPAT of US$1,672m vs US$1,614m ests (4% beat)

• Average realised price up 20% to US$74.0/boe

• Production down 13% to 86.5 MMboe, in line with ests, reflecting the planned Pluto turnaround

• Free cash flow up 159% to US$352m, including US$1,725m of capital contributions from Stonepeak and Williams

• Capital expenditure down 36% to US$1,637m

• Fully franked interim dividend of 57 US cps vs 53 US cps ests (8% beat), an 80% payout of underlying NPAT

• Gearing of 20.6%, marginally outside the 10% to 20% target range on new lease liabilities, hedge settlements and receivables timing

• Liquidity of US$8,189m with drawn debt of US$11,450m

• 2026 production guidance narrowed to 174 to 185 MMboe from 172 to 186 MMboe, with the 179.5 MMboe midpoint 3.7% below the 186.4 MMboe ests

• Scarborough 98% complete and on track for first LNG in Q4 2026, with Trion at 64% targeting first oil in 2028 and Louisiana LNG at 28% targeting 2029

Company page: Woodside Energy (WDS)

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Austin earnings slump as North America and Chile weigh, but cash flow improves sharply

[9:33 am] Austin Engineering's FY26 result showed a steep fall in earnings across every line, offset by a much stronger cash and balance sheet position heading into a guided FY27 recovery.

Note: no broker estimates were available for ANG, so all comparisons are to the prior corresponding period only.

• Revenue down 13% to $329.0m, with softer tray volumes in North America and APAC and the loss-making Chilean OEM contract more than offsetting growth in Australian buckets and spare parts

• EBITDA down 54% to $19.3m and EBIT (ex FX) down 67% to $10.8m, both meeting the downgraded guidance issued on 16 June

• NPAT down 76% to $6.4m, with EPS down 76% to 1.04 cents

• No final dividend declared, capital retained for the operational reset, leaving the full year at just the 0.3 cent interim

• Operating cash flow of $26.7m, up from $2.6m in FY25, with net debt down 55% to $5.8m

• Order book down 10% to $132.9m, though $32m of new orders have been secured since 1 July and FY27 underlying EBIT guidance of $17m to $21m implies a near doubling on FY26

Company page: Austin Engineering (ANG)

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Aurelia Metals appoints Steve Badenhorst as CEO

[9:25 am] Aurelia Metals has appointed Steve Badenhorst as Managing Director and CEO, effective 6 October 2026, ending the interim leadership period under Martin Cummings.

Badenhorst brings more than 35 years of operational leadership across global mining and processing, most recently as Group Head of Asset Management at Rio Tinto and previously COO of Rio Tinto Aluminium Pacific Operations, with directly relevant underground hard rock experience gained leading Glencore's technically complex Kidd zinc and copper operation in Canada.

Company page: Aurelia Metals (AMI)

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Coles delivers earnings ahead of sales as Supermarkets margins expand

[9:21 am] The supermarket operator converted modest top-line growth into a double-digit profit lift, with cost discipline and eCommerce scaling profitably driving the beat.

• Group sales revenue up 2.8% to $45.6bn vs $45.6bn ests (in line)

• Group EBIT (ex-items) up 9.9% to about $2,321m vs $2,316m ests (in line)

• NPAT (ex-items) up 13.7% to $1,255m vs $1,243m ests (1% beat)

  • Significant items of $235m pre-tax, or $165m after tax, from the September 2025 Federal Court judgment in the Fair Work Ombudsman proceedings

• Total dividends up 13.0% to 78 cps vs 78.5 cps ests (in line)

• Supermarkets sales revenue up 3.7% to $41.5bn, or up 5.1% excluding tobacco

• Supermarkets EBIT up 12.2% vs. 11.0% ests

  • Note: 4Q26 Supermarket sales was forecast to grow 4.2%, a slight acceleration vs. the 4.0% in Q3. Actual Q4 sales growth was 3.7%, so a deceleration rather than an acceleration

• Supermarkets gross margin up 37bps, helped by the mix shift away from tobacco and Coles 360 retail media

• Supermarkets price inflation of 1.5% for the year, easing to 1.0% in Q4

• FY27 sales growth for the first eight weeks tracked in line with 4Q FY26, with eCommerce penetration rising to 15.7%

  • Consensus sales growth for FY27 sits at 3.5%

Company page: Coles Group (COL)

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Tyro meets FY26 guidance with cash generation the standout

[9:19 am] The payments and banking provider delivered gross profit in line with ests and a sharp lift in free cash flow, though EBITDA landed slightly short and FY27 guidance implies only modest earnings growth.

• Gross profit up 5.3% to $231.8m vs $232.7m ests (in line)

• EBITDA up 8.6% to $66.9m vs $68.8m ests (3% miss)

• EBITDA margin up 90bps to 28.9%

• Normalised profit before tax up 40.0% to $24.7m

• Free cash flow up 49.5% to $29.4m

• Health TTV of $7.9bn, growing at roughly twice the rate of the broader market over three years

• FY27 gross profit guidance of $240m to $255m implies growth of 3.5% to 10.0%

• FY27 EBITDA margin guidance of 28.5% to 30.5%

  • Implies EBITDA of ~$68-78m, with the midpoint of about $73m broadly in line with $74.2m ests

Company page: Tyro Payments (TYR)

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Nanosonics misses on revenue but beats on EBIT as trophon holds up

[9:16 am] A stronger Australian dollar weighed on the reported result, though cost discipline drove an earnings beat, with FY27 shaping as a CORIS investment year.

• Revenue up 3% to $203.9m vs $211.5m ests (4% miss),

  • Capital revenue up 4% to $54.7m, up 8% at constant currency

  • Recurring revenue up 2% to $149.2m, up 6% at constant currency

• Gross margin down 130bps to 76.9% on product mix and currency

• EBIT down 10% to $16.0m vs $14.5m ests (10% beat), up 21% to $21.6m at constant currency

• Profit before tax down 10% to $20.1m, up 15% to $25.8m at constant currency

• Total trophon placements up 9% to 4,230 units, with record North American upgrades up 32% to 1,980

• Cash of $155.2m with no debt, after completing a $20m buyback

• New on-market buyback of up to $40m announced for FY27

• FY27 revenue guidance of $220m to $228m at constant currency implies 8% to 12% growth, with the $224m midpoint around 3% below ests and roughly $3m lower again at spot FX

• FY27 gross margin guided to 74% to 76% on a full year of 12.5% tariffs and higher freight, with opex of $156m to $163m implying 10% to 15% growth as CORIS investment steps up

Company page: Nanosonics (NAN)

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Beforepay lifts cash profit 57% as Personal Loans scale rapidly

[9:10 am] The consumer lender delivered record cash earnings in FY26, with the shift to charging interest on Pay Advances and a cheaper funding facility setting up FY27.

• Revenue up 26% to $50.6m on higher Pay Advance volume, Personal Loans growth and the interest rollout

• Cash NPAT up 57% to a record $15.7m

• Statutory NPAT up 22% to $8.2m

• Total advances up 19% to $963m, driven by a 17% lift in average advance size to $456

• Pay Advance advances up 18% to $946m, with average advance size up 15%

• Equity of $48.9m and total cash of $13.1m at year end

These are some pretty impressive numbers for a ~$86m market cap company. The stock is down 29.3% year-to-date and down 15% in the last twelve months.

Company page: Beforepay Group (B4P)

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Australian Ethical delivers record FY26 earnings on improving operating leverage

[9:09 am] The ethical fund manager lifted profit and margins on the back of FUM growth and positive net flows, with superannuation still doing most of the heavy lifting.

Note: no ests were available for this result, so comparisons are to the prior period only

• Revenue up 9% to $129.5m

• Underlying NPAT up 14.9% to $27.34m

• NPAT up 27.8% to $25.81m

• Underlying operating expenses up 7% to $90.4m on continued platform, people and governance investment

• FUM up to a record $14.5bn, with investment performance adding $187m

• Organic net flows up 13% to $664m, driven by $527m of superannuation net flows

• Final dividend of 10 cps fully franked, taking the FY26 total up 29% to 18 cps

• FY27 revenue margins guided to stay broadly consistent with the 0.89% exit position at 30 June

• FY27 underlying expense growth targeted to run below revenue growth, subject to market movements

Company page: Australian Ethical Investment (AEF)

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SiteMinder nearly doubles adjusted EBITDA but revenue lands short

[9:03 am] The hotel commerce platform delivered a sharp step-up in profitability in FY26, though a stronger Australian dollar and softer travel conditions saw revenue and earnings fall shy of ests.

Note: comparisons are to Morgan Stanley's 22-Jul note titled "Key picks into reporting season #2: SDR"

• Revenue up 18.6% reported to $266.1m vs $270.2m Morgan Stanley ests (2% miss)

  • Subscription revenue up 11.6% to $155.2m vs $155.5m ests (in line)

  • Transaction revenue up 30.0% to $110.9m vs $114.7m ests (3% miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 96.5% to $28.1m vs $29.9m ests (6% miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA margin up 419 bps to 10.6% vs. 11.0% ests (40 bp miss)

• Adjusted gross margin up 84 bps to 67.2% vs 66.8% ests (in line)

• Adjusted net loss of $7.6m vs a $4.9m loss in ests, though narrowed from $17.2m in FY25

• Adjusted free cash flow more than doubled to $10.5m, with available funds of $61.6m

• FY27 guidance for adjusted EBITDA margin to expand meaningfully and ARR growth in the 20s on a constant currency and organic basis

Company page: SiteMinder (SDR)

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GenusPlus posts record FY26 and guides to a doubling of EBITDA

[9:02 am] The power infrastructure contractor delivered sharp growth off acquisitions and east coast expansion, with FY27 guidance implying EBITDA roughly doubles again.

Note: no ests were available for this result, so comparisons are to the prior period only

• Revenue up 70.5% to a record $1.281bn

• Normalised EBITDA up 49.6% to a record $100.8m

• Underlying NPAT up 44.0% to $54.7m

• Basic EPS up 35.5% to 26.75c, diluted by the May equity raise

• Net cash of $399.3m, up from $113.5m at June 2025, helped by $195.6m of net equity raise proceeds

• Final dividend of 3.6 cps fully franked, taking total FY26 dividends up 55.6% to 5.6 cps

• Orderbook of $2.2bn excluding recurring revenue, with a tendered pipeline of $3.6bn

• FY27 EBITDA guidance of $200m to $205m implies growth of around 100% on FY26

• Recurring revenue forecast to rise 71% to about $764m in FY27 including MPK, from $446m in FY26

• FY27 capex guided to $65m to $70m including MPK and Railtrain, with east coast exposure set to exceed 50% of the group

Company page: GenusPlus Group (GNP)

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Cedar Woods posts record FY26 profit and targets further growth in FY27

[9:00 am] The residential developer beat the top end of its guidance, with margin expansion doing the heavy lifting and a record presales book underpinning the year ahead.

No ests available, so comparisons are to the prior period only.

• Revenue up 8% to a record $502.4m on higher average lot prices

• NPAT up 36% to a record $65.6m, ahead of the top end of guidance

• Gross margin up roughly two percentage points to about 30%, expected to hold broadly flat in FY27

• EPS up 33% to a record 77.9 cents

• Total FY26 dividends up 34% to a record 39.0 cps, with the DRP and Bonus Share Plan still suspended

• Presales up 26% to a record $830m, covering more than 90% of forecast FY27 revenue

• Enquiries up 25% to a record 30,137, though these softened markedly in Q4 on rate rises, tax changes and weaker sentiment

• Gross sales up 5% to 1,521 lots, homes and offices, with net sales up 5% to 1,326

• Gearing modest at 18% net bank debt to tangible assets, with more than $120m of available liquidity

• Targeting 15% NPAT growth in FY27, with residential conditions expected to stay soft for much of the year before improving

Company page: Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

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Dalrymple Bay delivers a low-surprise half with distribution growth intact

[8:55 am] The coal terminal operator posted modest earnings growth broadly in line with ests, with the near-term story still centred on the capital works program lifting revenue from FY28.

• TIC revenue up 3.6% to $156.5m

• EBITDA up 4.7% to $150.5m vs $151.4m ests (1% miss)

• Statutory NPAT up 14.2% to $49.2m

• FFO up 10.2% to $92.7m

• Q2-26 distribution of 6.75 cps, taking the half to 13.50 cps, in line with ests

• Net debt up 1.9% to $2,012.3m since 31 December, with investment grade rating reaffirmed

• Issued a $350m five-year fixed bond in the AMTN market under the new programme

• TY-26/27 distribution guidance of 28.62 cps reflects 8.5% growth, with a 3% to 7% p.a. DPS growth target maintained

• Committed NECAP projects of $370.6m still to be added to the asset base, with Shiploader 1A and Reclaimer 4 on schedule for commissioning by end-2026

• Most of that spend should hit the NECAP asset base by 1 July 2027, driving a material uplift in TIC revenue from that point

Company page: Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI)

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AUB Group meets on earnings, beats on dividend, but FY27 guidance lands short

[8:54 am] The insurance broker delivered record underlying earnings in line with ests and a stronger than expected payout, though its first take on FY27 sits below where the market was pitched.

• Underlying NPAT up 12.2% to $224.6m vs $224m ests (in line)

• Underlying EPS up 7.0% to 183.69c vs 182.3c ests (1% beat)

• Reported NPAT down 46.7% to $96.0m

• Australian Broking underlying NPBT up 10.0% to $149.1m, with average commission and fee income per client up 6.5%

• International underlying NPBT up 19.6% to $124.5m on marine and aviation strength at Tysers

• Final dividend up 7.6% to 71.0 cps fully franked

• Total FY26 dividend up 7.7% to 98.0 cps vs 92.8 cps ests (6% beat)

• Leverage ratio of 2.30x, with $330.5m of accessible cash and undrawn facilities

• FY27 underlying NPAT guidance of $245-265.0 implies growth of 9.1-18.0%, with the $255m midpoint sitting 2% below the $261m ests

Company page: AUB Group (AUB)

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Monadelphous posts record FY26 revenue with a dividend beat

[8:49 am] The engineering and maintenance contractor delivered a record result on the back of strong iron ore and energy activity, with earnings in line and the payout ahead of ests.

• Revenue up 31.5% to $2.98bn vs $2.98bn ests (in line)

• EBITDA up 42.9% to $226.0m vs $225m ests (in line)

• NPAT up 52.1% to $127.3m vs $125m ests (2% beat)

• Full year dividend up 50% to 108 cps vs 102 cps ests (6% beat)

• Engineering Construction revenue up 48.5% to $1.37bn on iron ore project work, Maintenance and Industrial Services up 20% to a record $1.61bn

• More than $2.7bn in new work secured since 1 July 2025 and over $680m already in FY27, though FY27 is flagged as a consolidation year after roughly 50% revenue growth across two years

Company page: Monadelphous Group (MND)

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SkyCity rejects two takeover approaches at up to NZ$0.75 a share

[8:49 am] SkyCity has confirmed media speculation about takeover interest, disclosing that its board unanimously knocked back two indicative proposals received in May 2026.

• A special situations fund managed by Oaktree Capital proposed NZ$0.70 cash per share, with a second unnamed party at an implied NZ$0.75, valuing equity at roughly NZ$772m and NZ$827m respectively

• The board determined neither proposal adequately reflected underlying value and that the attached conditions were problematic

• Both were non-binding and conditional on at least eight weeks of due diligence, arranging debt financing, exclusivity, unanimous board support, plus shareholder and regulatory approvals

• One or both parties asked SkyCity to stop buying or selling assets, which would have frozen the asset monetisation programme, and to retain its existing debt facilities

• SkyCity offered due diligence access if a revised proposal addressed those issues, but neither party came back with an improved bid

Company page: SkyCity Entertainment Group (SKC)

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Vulcan Steel lifts earnings as rollforming acquisition beats expectations

[8:46 am] The Australasian steel distributor delivered underlying earnings growth in FY26, helped by the acquired rollforming business and the first year-on-year volume growth since FY22.

• Adjusted EBITDA up 16% to NZ$130.3m

• Adjusted EPS up 10.8% to NZ 15.1 cents

• Operating cashflow down 30% to NZ$73.0m

• Final dividend of NZ 4.5 cps fully franked and fully imputed, taking the FY26 total to NZ 7.0 cps

• Net bank debt down NZ$5.1m to NZ$227.3m, with covenants improving over the year

• Outlook stays mixed, with New Zealand showing early signs of recovery ahead of the November election and Australian rates still restrictive, though the Brisbane 2032 build is flagged as a medium-term volume support

NZX-listed Vulcan shares are currently down 2.3% to NZ$6.25.

Company page: Vulcan Steel (VSL)

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Trump doubles Canadian auto tariffs to 50% as talks collapse

[8:44 am] The US-Canada trade war has escalated sharply after negotiations broke down on Friday night, with Trump flagging a doubling of auto tariffs and Ottawa promising dollar-for-dollar retaliation.

• Tariffs on cars, trucks, auto parts and steel from Canada rise to 50% on 1 January 2027, doubling the current 25% auto rate, with steel already at 50%

• Follows Saturday's imposition of 50% tariffs on around $20bn of Canadian goods including wine, cement and hockey sticks, in retaliation for alleged discrimination against US cars, alcohol and dairy

• Canada retaliates from 8 September, targeting US steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics, with Mark Carney saying his country is effectively at war

• Direct US volume exposure is modest, with Canadian-built vehicles accounting for just 5.4%, or 861,000, of US sales last year, though Toyota and Honda represented 76.5% of Canadian production in 2025

• Escalation risk is broadening, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatening to cut US access to electricity and critical minerals, and both sides blaming the other for last-minute changes

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Treasury eyes $1trn cash pile to fund bond buybacks

[8:42 am] The US Treasury could tap its General Account to fund expanded purchases of government bonds, giving Scott Bessent meaningful firepower to influence long-end yields.

• Two senior Treasury officials say the near $1trn Treasury General Account is available to help fund buybacks, though they would not specify how much or when an announcement might come

• Bessent has built the TGA to around $950bn, well above the roughly $550bn to $600bn target under the Biden administration

• Follows last week's surprise doubling of long-end off-the-run buybacks from $2bn to at least $4bn, with Bessent flagging operations could run larger still

• Bonds have since retreated from an initial rally on scepticism over the Treasury's firepower, and using the TGA could shift that perception even at modest scale

• Officials pushed back on claims the Treasury abandoned its regular and predictable approach, noting auction schedules are unchanged and the first operation is not until 9 September

• Drawing down the TGA carries limited near-term risk, with a new debt ceiling not expected to bind until winter 2027 at the earliest, leaving time to rebuild the balance

Source: CNBC

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Memory names lead a broad semiconductor selloff

[8:41 am] A run of policy, pricing and capital returns headlines has hit the memory complex hard, with the pain spreading across the wider semiconductor space just days out from Nvidia's result.

• Reports that Washington may allow Apple to source DRAM from CXMT and NAND from YMTC, potentially as a gesture ahead of Xi Jinping's expected 24 September US visit, drove SanDisk down 9%, Micron down 7%, Western Digital down 7% and the Roundhill Memory ETF down 7%

• Samsung fell more than 8% after its record 90trn to 110trn won ($65bn to $80bn) shareholder return plan landed short of expectations, with investors wanting more buybacks rather than dividends and no lift to the existing policy

• Buybacks are complicated by Samsung's ownership structure, with brokers expecting only 10trn to 20trn won directed to repurchases and cancellations, versus SK Hynix's 40trn won treasury share buyback and cancellation

• Nvidia has told customers server prices will rise more than 15% in many cases from early next year on surging memory costs, underlining the pricing power now sitting with Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron

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Chip selloff drags Wall Street lower ahead of Nvidia

[8:36 am] US equities started the week on the back foot as a semiconductor rout outweighed a drop in oil, with traders also weighing fresh US pressure on Iran.

• Nasdaq 100 down 1% as chipmakers sank, with Nvidia falling for a seventh straight session, its longest losing run since 2022

• Sector rattled by a report that some of Nvidia's biggest customers have been told of AI-related price hikes above 15%, while a memory chip ETF fell 5.9%

• Bessent threatened economic punishment for any country doing business with Iran, with softer energy costs helping lift Treasuries

• Bessent gave no further signals on revamping US debt management, following a report his department could draw on its cash pile to fund buybacks of higher-yielding older securities

• Focus shifts to Wednesday's PCE print and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, with investors seeking clarity on the Fed's reaction function to sticky inflation

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Good morning!

[8:25 am] ASX 200 futures are up 13 pts (+0.14%). Here's what happened overnight:

• A fairly quiet and narrow session on Wall Street, major benchmarks finished mixed as semis sold off and energy stocks pulled back but broader gains buoyed the Dow and Equal-weight S&P 500

  • S&P 500 (-0.28%), Nasdaq (-0.76%), Dow (+0.26%), Russell 2000 (-0.76%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.12%)

• Nvidia's decision to raise AI server prices by more than 15% detonated the memory complex, with names like Micron, SanDisk and Seagate trading broadly lower

• Bessent launched "Operation Economic Outcast" against Iran, while Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian cars and steel from January 2027

• Gold added another ~1% to US$4,602/oz, now up ~17% since 16-Jun and trading at the highest since 14-May