ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 8th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, September 8. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

Banks, Tech and consumer stocks drag the ASX 200 lower

[2:10 pm] That's a wrap! The ASX 200 is down 66 pts (-0.73%), trading around worst levels and at the lowest since 28 July. A very weak session, with 128 constituents trading lower (64%) and only Utilities and Energy trading higher. Banks, tech and consumer (discretionary and staples) are all down more than 1% after a very depressing consumer sentiment print this morning and higher oil prices.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors today (Source: Market Index)

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 5.2% to 84.4 in September from 88.9 in August, with all sub-indexes in pessimistic territory and well below long-run averages.

Brent has continued to edge higher today, up 0.2% to US$97.51 a barrel., while US diesel futures trade fractionally below the recent 1 September record close.

On a side note, has anyone checked in on soft commodities? Wheat, corn, rice and sugar are all going near-vertical in recent weeks (charts below). Not a good look for inflation.

Wheat, corn, rice and sugar 12-month price charts (Source: TradingView)

It's probably a tailwind for the handful of agriculture names we've got on the market. Elders is up around 15% since mid-August, a decent turnaround from the 23% one-day selloff it copped in May. Graincorp has added roughly 25% over the same stretch. Select Harvests is up 23%, because almonds count as softs too I guess.

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Top All Ords gainers

[1:00 pm] The high-profile Sunrise Energy (up ~820% in the last twelve months, received a US$400m loan from the US last month) is back near highs, while various energy, lithium and rare earth names also top the leaderboard.

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Top All Ords losers

[1:00 pm] Peet (which is currently under offer from Ingenia Communities at $2.185 per share) is trading sharply lower, Vulcan Steel has now dipped 10% in the last two sessions and Bluescope is technically down just 0.6% (as it trades ex-dividend for $1.35 a share).

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Consumer sentiment slides back towards deeply pessimistic levels

[1:00 pm] Fuel prices above $2 a litre and rate hike fears drove a broad-based fall in the September Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey.

• Consumer Sentiment Index down 5.2% to 84.4 in September from 88.9 in August, with all sub-indexes in pessimistic territory and well below long-run averages

• Family finances versus a year ago fell 9.2% to 72.6, giving back almost all of August's gain, with average pump prices up another 6.7% since the August survey after rising nearly a third over July-August on the excise cut roll-off

• The mortgage belt is doing the heavy lifting, with sentiment down 14% across mortgage holders and an 18% drop in their 'time to buy a major item' read, while homeowner assessments of family finances fell 13% against a 0.6% rise among renters

• Mortgage Rate Expectations Index up 7.3% to 170.4, with 64% of consumers expecting rates to rise over the next 12 months, up from 59% last month, and closer to 73% across the mortgage belt

• Unemployment Expectations Index up 2.8% to 139.4, now clearly above the long-run average of 129 though below prior peaks, with larger rises in job loss fears among construction and hospitality workers

• Time to buy a dwelling down 10.7% to 85.5 while House Price Expectations dipped just 0.4% to 110.3 after a 36% slide over six months, and only 4.7% of consumers nominate real estate as the wisest place for savings

• Westpac sees the RBA holding on 28-29 September, arguing the Board is unlikely to act on a single noisy monthly CPI read with the next update due the day after the meeting

Source: Westpac Economics

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Wheat jumps as Ukraine peace hopes fade

[12:54 pm] Chicago wheat posted its biggest gain in more than a week after weekend talks between US envoys and Vladimir Putin ended without progress.

• Wheat up 2.9% to $7.5550 a bushel, having risen as much as 3.1% on Tuesday for the largest gain since 28 August, after dropping more than 6% last week

• Corn up 0.7% and soybeans up 0.1%, with the move led by the Black Sea supply story rather than broader grain strength

• CRM AgriCommodities said hopes of a genuine breakthrough in the talks gave way to more of the same disruption to Black Sea grain shipments

• Attacks on grain terminals and shipping infrastructure have sharply reduced exports of wheat, corn and other foodstuffs from the region

Source: Bloomberg

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China export growth accelerates as AI demand lifts trade values

[12:50 pm] August exports beat July's pace despite typhoon disruption at east coast ports, widening the trade surplus ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting.

• Exports up 25% y/y in August from nearly 24% in July, though slightly below economist expectations of almost 26%

• Imports up 28.2%, softer than expected, leaving a trade surplus of US$119.1bn

• China is tracking towards a repeat of last year's record US$1.2tn surplus, with the global AI infrastructure buildout driving trade across Asia

• Price rather than volume is doing much of the work, with some chip prices up as much as 700% over the past year on semiconductor and electronics shortages, while S&P Global Ratings expects port volume growth of about 5% this year

• Typhoons suspended operations at major east China ports, with cargo throughput falling every week through August

Source: Bloomberg

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Copper at all-time highs as US buyers turn to Congo copper as tariff rush drives record imports

[12:13 pm] Copper prices are up 1.2% to US$6.79/lb, trading fractionally below recent all-time highs, while prices on the LME hit a record US$14,533 a tonne overnight.

• Congo cathode deliveries to the US hit a record 53,290t in July, a 23.9% share of total imports, which topped 220,000t for the first time as traders rushed metal in ahead of a potential tariff

• The step-up is dramatic against full-year 2024 imports of under 32,000t from Congo, helped by higher production out of the world's second-largest copper producer

• No Congolese brands are COMEX-deliverable, with only two African brands on the list, both Zambian, and more than a third of approved brands from Chile and Peru

• Benchmark's Albert Mackenzie said the metal is likely going straight to the US physical market at prices well below COMEX-deliverable brands, with the COMEX premium to LME running at $400 to $600 at times over the summer

Despite prices gaining around 3.8% over the last five sessions, most copper stocks have traded lower, perhaps reflecting some skepticism over potential US tariffs and broader macro headwinds.

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ASX 200 hits a six-week low

[11:36 am] The ASX 200 is down 57 pts (-0.63%), trading at the lowest since 29 July and now down 3.4% from the 6 August record high. Breadth is very weak, only Utilities trading higher and 144 constituents (72%) in the red. Banks are the main drag on the index, with the ASX 200 Banks Index down 1.2%.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Active managers lagged again in the first half of 2026

[11:31 am] The mid-year SPIVA Australia Scorecard shows a majority of active funds underperformed in every equity category, with only Australian bonds bucking the trend.

• 78% of Australian Equity General funds trailed the ASX 200, which gained 2.4% against an average active return of 0.2% equal-weighted, putting 2026 on pace for the second-highest underperformance rate since the scorecard launched in 2013

• 65% of mid- and small-cap funds underperformed, with the S&P/ASX Mid-Small down 5.9% versus an average fund return of -7.6% equal-weighted and -8.7% asset-weighted

• Australian Bonds was the only category where active edged ahead, returning 2.4% against the benchmark's 2.3%, though the 44% underperformance rate was up from 27% in calendar 2025

• Only 35% of ASX 200 constituents beat the index, with the top 20 weight rising from 61.0% to 63.4% and large caps outperforming as the ASX 50 gained 4.6%

• Dispersion widened sharply, with S&P World constituent dispersion at levels last seen in the GFC and ASX 200 sector returns ranging from double-digit gains in Materials and Energy to falls of 21.9% in Health Care and 15.7% in IT

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:22 am] Downer is bouncing as it tries to stabilise after a sharp 10% selloff on the day of its FY26 result (20-Aug), Pinnacle is also bouncing after falling as much as 25% since early August and miners (lithium, copper) catch a bid.

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Top ASX 200 losers

[10:22 am] All ASX 200 sectors except for Energy are trading lower in early trade, Bluescope lower as it goes ex-dividend and growth-y stocks like 4DMedical, Electro Optic Systems open sharply lower.

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Core Lithium produces first concentrate at Finniss

[9:30 am] Core has produced first spodumene concentrate from the recommissioned Finniss plant, hitting its restart target within six months of FID.

• First concentrate produced on schedule and on budget, within six months of the March FID and in line with the September quarter 2026 target

• Plant upgrades lift throughput capacity by around 20% to 1.2Mtpa, covering screen refurbishments, rolls crusher and tails thickener enhancements, ferrosilicon distribution improvements and consolidation of crushing and DMS operations into one control room

• The plant remains in commissioning and optimisation, with work focused on performance, reliability and throughput before reliable and sustained production is reached

• Mining restarted at the Grants open pit in May and the crushing circuit was recommissioned in August, with Grants providing near-term ore feed and early cash flow while BP33 underground development continues in parallel

• First shipment targeted for the December quarter 2026 with the logistics chain already operational and production and shipments expected to continue into 2027

Company page: Core Lithium (CXO)

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Black Cat appoints acting Managing Director

[9:29 am] Black Cat has appointed mining executive and engineer Chris Stone as Acting Managing Director effective 8 September 2026, with Stone bringing more than 35 years across gold, nickel, copper and coal in operations, technical, projects and approvals roles. Chairman Paul Chapman said Stone will hold the role until a permanent appointment is made and will also be instrumental in the search process.

Company page: Black Cat Syndicate (BC8)

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Drill hits and exploration wrap

[9:28 am] Tungsten dominated the day's exploration newsflow, alongside manganese, PGM and copper results across the small-cap space.

• Sky Metals returned surface samples of 7.44% WO3 and 2.01% WO3 at the Theirman Mines prospect 20km north of Tallebung, with over 500m of strike across two trends and drilling due to start in coming weeks

• Recharge Metals re-assayed pulps from two diamond holes at Brandy Hill South for tungsten, returning 11m @ 0.33% Cu and 0.15% WO3 from 124m and 7.5m @ 1.65% Cu and 0.13% WO3 from 375.5m, with more than 1,000 pulps queued for priority re-assay

• Trek Metals hit 7m @ 40.2% Mn from 7m at Kuro, with 28 of 50 Phase 1 holes above 5% Mn and 16 above 20% Mn, and low iron giving an Mn:Fe ratio of 8.3:1 across intercepts averaging 20% Mn or better

• Chalice Mining intersected broad low-grade copper-silver-gold over 1.2km of strike in 16 first-pass RC holes at Deep Blue, expanding tenure across a newly recognised 30km copper belt now called the Goomalling Copper Project

• Sun Silver returned 16.8m at 20g/t AgEq from surface at Maverick, outside the current resource, plus 80m at 59g/t AgEq from 166.1m including 9.2m at 214g/t AgEq within the 539Moz AgEq resource

• Caspin Resources identified a new tin-tungsten target at Taylors Hill in the Bygoo Project, with historical drilling of 3.0m @ 3.69% WO3 and 0.39% Sn from 44.2m inside an 800m tungsten soil anomaly

• Terra Metals delivered 14m @ 3.13g/t 3E from 411m and 79.8m @ 1.30g/t 3E from 302m in SWRD054 at Southwest, with the system open along strike and downdip ahead of a maiden resource estimate

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Sigma Lithium says operations continue despite a preliminary licence ruling

[9:24 am] The company confirmed mining and industrial activity is unaffected by a preliminary judicial ruling reported to suspend its environmental licences.

• Production targets unchanged, with the company still expecting to deliver 240,000t of lithium oxide concentrate within 12 months and 330,000t in FY27

• No legal communication received in connection with the preliminary ruling, which Sigma says was issued without due process during a three-day judicial recess

• The ruling was reportedly issued in Teofilo Otoni, a town more than 300km from Vale do Jequitinhonha, where operations support 19,000 jobs

• Any daily fine would only fall dueon a final negative ruling after full appeals through the federal courts and Supreme Tribunals, a process the company says jurisprudence suggests would run multiple years

• Sigma denies reportsthat the ruling overrules its recent TAC Agreement with Minas Gerais State Authorities, which underpinned the resumption of activities

• Election timing flagged as a risk to newsflow, with Minas Gerais a key battleground ahead of Brazil's second-round general election on 15 November and Vale do Jequitinhonha now a swing district

Company page: Sigma Lithium (SAU)

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Select Harvests lifts crop and pool price but flags higher wet harvest costs

[9:21 am] The company narrowed 2026 crop guidance to near-record levels while doubling its one-off cost estimate and trimming external grower volumes.

• 2026 crop guidance of 28,800–29,600MT is up 16–19% on the pcp, narrowed from 28,000–31,000MT despite some regions receiving more than 300% of average harvest rainfall in late February and early March

• Pool price up to $10.26/kg from $10.21/kg, now 91% hedged at US$0.665, with 81% of the 2026 crop sold or contracted

• External grower volumes of 13,800–14,200MT are up 88–94% on FY25 but well short of prior guidance of 15,400MT

• Wet harvest and one-off operational costs of $13.9m versus the $6.9m flagged at 1H26, with a further $7m booked in the second half on additional drying, an extended processing period and other non-recurring items

• Year-end net debt below $65m, after roughly $30m of capital investment in a new pre-cleaner and dryer, kernel recovery line, new shakers and capacity expansion

• Almond prices at a 10-year high in USD, with California controlling around 77% of global supply and bearing acreage set to fall for the first time since 1995, a 2025-26 crop below 2.7b lbs and carry-out under 500m lbs

Company page: Select Harvests (SHV)

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Elevra guides to higher volumes and a big step-up in capex

[9:15 am] FY27 guidance points to modest production growth, a large lift in sales volumes and a capital spend more than five times FY26 as the NAL expansion ramps.

• Spodumene concentrate production guidance of 198,000–210,000dmt implies growth of about ~3% on FY26's 197,967dmt, all from NAL at 5.2% product grade

• Spodumene concentrate sales guidance of 200,000–230,000dmt is up around 18% on FY26's 181,494dmt at the midpoint, drawn partly from existing inventory and modestly front-weighted at 55% first half and 45% second half

• Unit operating costs guidance of US$880–950/dmt sold is up roughly 7% on FY26's US$853/dmt at the midpoint, reflecting inflation, FX translation, a higher strip ratio of 10:1 and pre-strip work in Phase 4 ahead of the NAL brownfield expansion

• Capital expenditure guidance of US$120–140m is more than five times FY26's US$24m, with US$100–120m of growth capital for the NAL expansion and Moblan studies

• Sustaining capital of US$20m at NAL sits within the FY27 capex envelope

Company page: Elevra Lithium (ELV)

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Red Hill lifts royalty income 142% and declares a 10.8cps final dividend

[9:13 am] Onslow Iron reaching nameplate capacity drove a step-change in Red Hill's royalty stream and underpinned a materially higher FY26 payout.

• Royalty income up 142% to $28.8m on the achievement of nameplate capacity at the Onslow Iron Project, within total income of $31.56m

• Profit before tax up 119% to $28.8m

• NPAT up 120% to $20.1m

• EPS up 120% to 31.27cps

• Final fully franked dividend of 10.8cps takes FY26 declared dividends to 22.4cps, consistent with the policy of paying out 50% of royalty income, with an ex-date of 15 September and payment on 30 September 2026

  • This represents a full-year yield of 4.9% based on Monday's close of $4.55

• Net cash of $62.77m at 30 June 2026, which Executive Chairman Joshua Pitt said leaves Red Hill positioned to keep paying dividends, fund exploration at Curnamona and the West Pilbara, and pursue further royalty acquisitions

Company page: Red Hill Minerals (RHI)

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US diesel futures back at record highs

[9:08 am] US diesel futures closed 2.9% higher overnight, sitting fractionally below the record high set on 1 September and now up 118% year-to-date. The chart below adds local refiners Ampol and Viva alongside Brent and Woodside for comparison, with Brent still trading around 15% below its May highs.

NY Harbor ULSD futures (black) and Brent (red) vs. Viva Energy (blue), Ampol (orange) and Woodside (green) | Source: TradingView

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Aussie yields hit fresh multi-year highs

[9:00 am] Longer-dated yields like the 20 and 30 year have continued to sit near historic highs of around 5.6%, levels unseen since the first tenor was issued in 2016. The 10-year added 2 bps on Monday to close at 5.21%, the highest since June 2011. Meanwhile, the policy-sensitive 3-year yield continues to hover around the upper bound of its recent trading range, at 4.80%, the highest since March 2026.

Aussie 3, 10, 20 and 30-year yield charts (Source: TradingView)

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PBOC lifts gold buying to the fastest pace since 2023

[8:55 am] China's central bank accelerated bullion purchases in August despite a sharp run-up in the gold price.

• PBOC holdings rose 650,000 ounces in August, the largest monthly addition since 2023, extending the buying streak to 22 months

• Gold rose almost 10% in August on a revival of the debasement trade, with spot around $4,456 an ounce

• The US Treasury's plan to ramp up debt buybacks stoked inflation and dollar weakness concerns, pushing investors towards alternative stores of value

• Sustained official-sector demand from the PBOC and other sovereign buyers has reassured gold bulls on the longer-term outlook

Source: Bloomberg

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ECB set for an insurance hike as energy lifts inflation

[8:55 am] Traders have fully priced a Thursday move from the ECB as the US-Iran war keeps oil and European gas prices elevated.

• A 25bp move to 2.5% is fully priced, with sources telling Reuters the ECB is ready to go again and euro zone inflation back above 3% in August on higher energy costs

• ING's Carsten Brzeski frames it as another insurance rate hike, or a dovish hike for those who dislike the term

• The path beyond September is contested, with traders attaching a high chance to another move by December and one more next year, while most economists polled by Reuters think the ECB is done after Thursday

• The inflation impulse is not broadening yet, with services inflation falling despite August's headline jump, a soft labour market and wage growth still slowing

• New projections are expected broadly unchanged, though SEB's Pia Fromlet looks for a small upgrade to the 2026 growth forecast after euro zone August business activity matched July's fastest pace this year

• Rising global yields are doing some of the work, with French and Italian 10-year borrowing costs up around 65bp each this year and Germany up 50bp, tightening financial conditions ahead of the decision

Source: Reuters

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Iran threatens Gulf energy assets as tanker strikes escalate

[8:46 am] Tehran warned US oil and gas interests across the Gulf are exposed after tit-for-tat tanker attacks pushed crude near six-week highs.

• Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said the Gulf oil and gas production chain is sprawling, accessible and exposed, and that American energy companies operating in those waters share that exposure

• Hormuz transits at their lowest since May, averaging just 10 commodity vessels a day over the past 10 days, with Tehran set to declare a new restricted zone and shipping corridor through the strait

• US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday including one near Kharg Island, following Revolutionary Guard missile launches at a US carrier and destroyer

• Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery was hit in strikes with damage still being assessed, according to an FT report cited by Reuters, though the report has not been independently verified

• Washington is pressing for a UN Security Council referral over Iran's blocking of IAEA inspectors for 15 months, with China and Russia unlikely to back new action and Trump signalling possible strikes on the fortified Pickaxe site

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Copper hits a record high on tariff squeeze

[8:43 am] Copper set an all-time LME high as tariff-driven metal flows tighten availability outside the US.

• LME three-month futures gained as much as 0.8% to $14,533 a tonne, beating the January record before paring some of the advance

• Copper is up 17% this year and 47% over 12 months, with an ageing fleet of large mines struggling to keep pace with data centre, renewables and grid demand

• Tariff positioning is the near-term driver, with the Department of Commerce report advising the White House on primary copper levies still outstanding roughly two months past due

• Global stockpiles have relocated to the US as LME inventories dwindled, leaving spot in steep backwardation to three-month futures, which Cesco's Cristián Cifuentes attributes to metal moving on tariffs rather than excess final demand

• Chilean copper export revenue fell to its lowest in more than a year in August, and global mined supply is on track for its first annual decline since 2017 without a second-half recovery

Source: Bloomberg

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Risk assets shrug off the global bond selloff

[8:41 am] The repricing in global bond yields has yet to trigger the usual rotation out of risk assets.

• Credit premiums remain subdued and downside protection across risky assets is still relatively cheap despite the move in yields

• Friday's stronger-than-expected US jobs report hit Treasuries and lifted bets the Fed starts raising rates at its 16 September meeting, with the dollar higher and the S&P 500 closing lower

• Liquidity strain is contained, with JPMorgan finding sharply deteriorating Treasury liquidity but little comparable stress in stock-index futures or corporate bond ETFs

• Schwab's Collin Martin said financial conditions remain easy and credit spreads remarkably tight, with companies unfazed by borrowing costs while earnings grow more than 20% y/y

Source: Bloomberg

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JPMorgan says rising yields will not derail equities

[8:39 am] JPMorgan tells clients earnings momentum should keep driving markets, with higher yields a headwind rather than a breaking point.

• Earnings on an uptrend underpin the constructive view, with inflation and yield risks unlikely to derail equities so long as inflation expectations do not become de-anchored

• Government borrowing costs have spiked to near multi-decade highs, driven by the Iran war oil shock feeding inflation and expectations of imminent central bank tightening

• Rate risk is immediate, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole language lifting bets on a hike as soon as next week and the ECB expected to move on Thursday

• Non-tech activity is recovering, visible in global ex-China manufacturing output and US non-tech capex and structures, with the analysts recommending investors use dips to add

Source: Investing.com

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Bernstein warns Asian equities are underpricing a 5% US yield

[8:38 am] Bernstein argues investors are underestimating the valuation compression risk if the US 10-year pushes through 5%.

• The US 10-year is already close to 5%, a level Bernstein says is not reflected in Asian valuations, noting the only prior periods above it in 2000 and 2007 brought sharp multiple compression

• Forward P/Es look undemanding only because record earnings expectations in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Thailand have lifted the base, raising the risk earnings peak just as borrowing costs rise

• Price-to-book is less comfortable, with South Korea and Taiwan at record multiples and Japan and Australia trading above their 2021 peaks

• The gap between earnings yields and bond yields sits close to record lows in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia, leaving thin compensation for holding equities over bonds

• Asian tech at 23.6x forward earnings is around its five-year average, though record price-to-sales multiples leave the sector exposed if yields grind higher

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Good morning!

[8:14 am] ASX 200 futures are down 5 pts (-0.05%). Here's what happened overnight:

• US equity and bond markets were shut for Labor Day, leaving Europe and Asia to set the tone on thin conditions, with European benchmarks finishing mixed as energy led and healthcare lagged

  • Stoxx 600 (0.00%), CAC 40 (+0.33%), DAX (-0.21%), FTSE 100 (-0.08%)

  • Hang Seng (-0.93%), Nikkei (+2.12%), Kospi (+4.6%)

• OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release reignited the memory chip trade, driving big gains across Samsung, SK Hynix, SoftBank and Kioxia and lifting the Nikkei and Kospi

• Oil continued its grind higher, with Brent up 1.5% to US$97.30 a barrel after US and Iran traded strikes on shipping over the weekend, copper set a record on the LME and the yen broke below 155 as Bank of Japan hike bets firmed