ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 22nd July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, July 22. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 edges higher as resources offset broad weakness

[2:15 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is up 0.33%, off its session high of 0.51%, with only Materials and Energy in the green as several other sectors fall around 1%. The Healthcare sector rallied 23% between 3-Jun and 6-Jul, now down 5.8% in the last twelve sessions. Still a relatively shallow pullback, with today's weakness dragging the index right on its 50-day moving average. Ideally, it finds a bid here. Materials caught a relatively broad-bid today, with gold and copper miners leading the charge. Copper prices are up 4.2% week-to-date and trading within 2% of all-time highs, yet most copper equities have only just begun to bounce today, a notable dispersion.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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A solid two-day bounce for gold stocks

[1:48 pm] Gold prices have continued to march higher on Wednesday, up 1.4% to US$4,132/oz after a 1.7% bounce in the prior session. Despite a solid two-day streak, prices have only returned to a two-week high.

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Origin investigating potential security incident

[1:46 pm] Origin Energy is investigating a potential security incident that may involve unauthorised access to some customers' data.

• Impacted data not believed to include customer credit card or bank details

• Investigations underway as a matter of urgency, with further updates to be provided as appropriate

• Regulators notified, including the Australian Cyber Security Centre, the Australian Federal Police and the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner

Company page: Origin Energy (ORG)

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A look at what's trending on Livewire

[1:30 pm] A few reads worth your time from our sister site Livewire.

• Cheap Chinese AI models like Kimi are not a threat to US tech: Cliff Man (ETF Shares) argues lower token costs will accelerate adoption and drive more workloads to hyperscalers under a multi-model approach

• 5 ASX and global companies to hold for the next 10 years: Sara Allen (Livewire) canvasses three fund managers on quality compounders, landing on IHG, Catapult, Auckland Airport, Breville and Nanosonics as one to watch

• 9 key charts for investors to keep an eye on amidst oil and AI worries: Shane Oliver (AMP) stays upbeat on a 12-month view but sees elevated near-term correction risk

• Superhuman stockpicking: VanEck on how AI could change the game: Tom Stelzer (Livewire) looks at the AI-powered GOAT ETF, whose underlying index has a 21-year simulated track record beating the MSCI World ex Australia by around 3% per annum

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Top All Ords gainers and losers

[1:03 pm] Beetaloo Energy is trading sharply higher launching a digital side of the business, progressing a proposed large-scale integrated data centre opportunity in the Northern Territory, cornerstoned by gas fired power. Meanwhile, Meeka Metals is trading near a fresh 18-month low after its quarterly flagged weak contractor mining productivities in the open pit, a problem that surfaced in the March quarter and hasn't improved, slowing pit advance and deferring access to high-grade ore. The stock is down 65.9% year-to-date vs. the All Ords Gold Index at (16.20%).

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Blackstone tying up $3bn AirTrunk loan as data centre debt worries grow

[1:02 pm] Blackstone is finalising a syndicate of banks to underwrite a $4.3bn (US$3bn) loan to build AirTrunk's new Australian data centre, despite mounting concern over AI infrastructure debt.

• $4.3bn (US$3bn) five-year loan to fund AirTrunk's SYD3 hyperscale data centre, with the bank group set to expand as more underwriters join

• Lenders include Credit Agricole, DBS, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, ING, MUFG, Morgan Stanley and UOB

• AI infrastructure debt binge accelerating, with at least US$334.5bn of bonds and loans issued so far this year, far exceeding the US$185.5bn raised in all of 2025

• Asia-Pacific lenders nearing exposure limits for the sector after committing billions, pushing up borrowing costs for operators

• Regional activity brisk, with AirTrunk wrapping a US$2.3bn loan for a Johor project and NextDC lifting a new facility to $2.3bn from $1.8bn

Source: Bloomberg

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ASIC warns auditors with new review after KPMG scandal

[1:02 pm] Australia's corporate regulator has stepped up scrutiny of large audit firms, launching a review of internal complaints handling following allegations against KPMG Australia.

• ASIC targeting internal complaints treatment at the local operations of KPMG, PwC, Deloitte and EY

• Letter sent to almost 3,000 auditors dated Wednesday, outlining regulatory obligations and ASIC's enforcement authority

• Investigations to follow where ASIC has sufficient concerns over a possible breach of the Corporations Act, per Commissioner Kate O'Rourke

• KPMG allegations that it used confidential client data to win audit work and mishandled internal complaints have triggered a parliamentary hearing, a government sector review and a leadership overhaul, including a new CEO appointed Tuesday

Source: Bloomberg

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers at noon

[12:59 pm] Copper names have continued to trend higher throughout the session, while healthcare names experience a sharp pullback.

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Trump sets 100% tariff on generic drugs with two-year delay

[12:31 pm] President Trump announced a 100% import duty on generic drugs from August 2028, giving manufacturers two years to reshore production to the US.

• 100% duty from August 2028, doubling to 200% from August 2029, aimed at reshoring generic pharmaceutical production

• Generic makers most exposed, competing on thin margins and reliant on global manufacturing networks, unlike patented drugmakers such as Merck and Eli Lilly that struck deals to sidestep earlier levies

• India in the crosshairs as the biggest generic exporter to the US, with pharmaceuticals worth $10.5bn in 2024-25 and over 40% of Indian exports to the US adversely affected

• Uncertainty over India's exposure, given a February trade pact stipulating negotiated outcomes on generic pharmaceuticals and ingredients

• Birth control supply at risk, with around 65% of US pill prescriptions in 2024 made by just two India-based companies, Glenmark and Lupin

• Patented drug tariff plans unchanged, still seeking duties of up to 100% on certain imported medicines with several major exceptions

Source: Bloomberg

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Peninsula Energy withdraws CY26 production, shares tumble

[12:30 pm] Peninsula Energy withdrew its CY26 production guidance this morning, citing a slower-than-anticipated wellfield ramp-up at Lance, while reaffirming CY27 guidance. The stock is currently down 24% to 27.5 cents.

• CY26 production guidance withdrawn, largely due to reduced flow rates during the wellfield ramp-up

• CY27 guidance reconfirmed at 500-600klbs U3O8

• Issues centred on Mine Unit 1, Mine Unit 3 and wellfield chemistry refinement in the first 2-3 header houses in Mine Unit 4

• Management views the issues as temporary and unlikely to impact production beyond CY26

• Mine Unit 5 de-risking on track, with a final investment decision expected before the end of CY26

Company page: Peninsula Energy (PEN)

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A strong day for copper miners

[11:10 am] Copper stocks are trading broadly higher as copper prices continued to advance overnight, up 2.9% to US$6.56/lb.

Prices have continued to climb on Tuesday, up 0.5% to US$6.59/lb, now less than 2% from the 2-Jun record high and up 14.7% year-to-date.

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Analysts' take on Hub24

[11:01 am] Hub24's Q4 update on Tuesday delivered net inflows broadly flat vs. a year ago and below market expectations, though platform FUA beat consensus aided by a strong positive market contribution, with Federal Budget tax changes and volatility weighing on discretionary flows. The stock fell 4.2% on the day, and have rebounded 4.5% in early trading today.

• Total FUA up 20% to $164.3bn, comprising Platform FUA of $139.5bn (up 24%) and PARS FUA of $24.8bn (up 5%)

• Platform FUA up 9% over the quarter, driven by $4.2bn net inflows and $7.5bn of positive market movements

• FY26 platform net inflows of a record $18.9bn, up 20% on the $15.8bn in FY25 excluding large migrations

Here's what analysts are thinking:

• Ord Minnett maintained Accumulate, lowered target to $95 from A$99: flags net flow softness as a mild disappointment tied to Budget-related tax uncertainty, but sees advice network and licensee growth as encouraging and valuation as undemanding.

• Bell Potter maintained Buy, target A$110: notes slowing flow momentum amid elevated withdrawals but believes the quarter reflected peak pessimism, with improving super trends and the retirement income partnership supporting the structural growth thesis.

• Morgan Stanley retained Overweight, target $120.

• Macquarie retained Overweight, target up to $97.00 from $96.25: "Robust EPS growth underpinned by strong fundamentals, at an attractive ~12% discount to 5-year average PE."

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Analysts' take on NextDC

[11:00 am] NEXTDC lifted its pro forma contracted capacity at the end of June on Tuesday, pushing the forward order book well ahead of prior forecasts while management reaffirmed FY26 guidance for net revenue, underlying EBITDA and capital expenditure. The stock rallied 7.7% on the day.

• JPMorgan maintained Overweight, target A$18.00: contracted capacity ran well ahead of forecasts with funding secured via the recent raise and upsized debt, and neocloud demand is driving pricing higher to support outer year earnings.

• UBS maintained Buy, target A$22.55: the win closely aligns with the Sharon AI and NVIDIA collaboration, likely at M2, materially lifting contracted EBITDA that is not yet in forecasts.

• Macquarie maintained Outperform, target A$18.30: likely neocloud capacity at M2 using NVIDIA equipment sits within the existing capex funding envelope, with the EBITDA pull forward presenting upside to outer year earnings and improving risk adjusted returns.

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ASX 200 higher as miners rally

[10:57 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is up 0.47% in early trade thanks to a broad uplift the resource sector, with notable gains from South32 (+3.5%), BHP (+3.0%), Rio Tinto (+2.5%), Fortescue (+2.1%).

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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September 2026 S&P/ASX rebalance shapes up as one of the more active recent reviews

[10:14 am] An early assessment of the September 2026 S&P/ASX index review points to broad turnover across the hierarchy, according to Morgan Stanley.

• Around $2.5bn of aggregate gross notional turnover estimated across constituent changes and share count adjustments, with ASX 200 add/deletes alone generating around $668m of gross trading

• ASX 50: no assured turnover, though COH and WTC sitting beyond the deletion buffer could open the door for MIN and NXT

• ASX 100: ALX out, VNT in is the clearest higher-probability pair, with estimated passive demand for VNT of around $70.7m against ALX-related selling of around $34.3m

• ASX 200: WBT and SIQ the leading additions with TUA and PNR the highest-probability deletions, with ELS, SRL, CBO and SSM possible further adds against ELD, GNC, GQG and DMP

• ASX 300: broader turnover spanning Metals & Mining (EQR, LIN, CXO, BRE), Construction & Engineering (SXE, TEA, GNP), Technology (EIQ), Financials (CCL, NGI) and Health Care (AYA, PYC), with PYC the largest addition by weight at 4.7bps requiring around $31.4m of passive buying

• Announcement due Friday 4 September, with implementation at the close of trading on 18 September 2026

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:04 am] Copper, uranium and gold names top the leaderboard after a strong overnight session for commodities, while Lynas tumbles on a poor quarterly production report and healthcare/tech shares slip.

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Drilling and ops highlights: gold, silver and uranium updates across the juniors

[9:53 am] A busy run of exploration and operational updates across the small-cap resources space, spanning high-grade gold hits, silver-lead-zinc extensions and a uranium guidance withdrawal.

• Meeka Metals intersected 52.3m @ 3.0g/t Au from 474.1m (including 30.6m @ 3.4g/t Au) around 200m below the Turnberry underground reserve, pointing to depth extension potential beyond the current 690koz @ 2.0g/t Au resource

• Sinclair Gold extended down-dip mineralisation at its Mt Henry Gold Project, with the Selene deposit pushed a further 125m to around 600m and the Mt Henry central zone up 150% to around 250m, with four diamond rigs turning ahead of a resource update in the December 2026 quarter beyond the current 915,000oz

• Beetaloo Energy Australia was granted NT Government exclusivity over 185 hectares at Weddell for its Beetaloo Digital gas-fired integrated data centre proposal, with each GW of compute requiring up to 200 TJ/day of gas

• Polymetals confirmed broad high-grade silver-lead-zinc zones in the upper Main Lode, with all nine new holes hitting mineralisation, including 96.6m @ 390g/t Ag, 8.8% Zn and 5.4% Pb, prompting the start of resource modelling ahead of an updated estimate later this year

• Peninsula Energy withdrew CY2026 production guidance on a slower-than-expected wellfield ramp-up at Lance, while reconfirming CY2027 guidance of 500-600klbs U3O8, supported by a US$47.1m cash balance following a recent US$56m funding package

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Helia responds to ASX price query, points to new analyst report

[9:48 am] Helia has told the ASX it is not aware of any undisclosed information explaining recent trading, attributing the share price move to a new equity research report.

The stock opened the Tuesday session down 2.3% to $5.51, but spent most of the day trending lower, closing the session 10.1% lower to $5.07.

• Helia said it is not aware of undisclosed information that could explain the move, including on first-half earnings to 30 June 2026

• Company pointed to a new equity research report issued late on the evening of 20 July as the likely explanation

• Helia confirmed compliance with continuous disclosure obligations under Listing Rule 3.1

Company page: Helia Group (HLI)

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Westgold beats FY26 production guidance with $233m Q4 cash build

[9:46 am] Westgold delivered FY26 gold production above its guidance range and grew its cash and liquid investments by $575 million over the year, funding buybacks while staying debt free and unhedged.

• FY26 gold production of 387,354oz, above guidance range of 345-385koz

• FY26 AISC of $2,841/oz, within guidance and at the top end of the $2,600-2,900/oz range

• Q4 gold production of 98,854oz at AISC of $2,802/oz, with gold sales of 110.3koz at an average price of $6,391/oz

• Q4 underlying cash build of $233m, before $142m growth investment, $22m buybacks and $11m exploration

• Closing cash, bullion and liquid investments of $939m at 30 June, up $575m for FY26 and $83m quarter on quarter

• Divested Peak Hill and Chalice Gold projects, completing non-core asset sales, with FY27 guidance and dividend update due in August

Company page: Westgold Resources (WGX)

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Atturra flags revenue miss and goodwill impairment despite in-line earnings

[9:44 am] Atturra guided FY26 underlying EBITDA in line with expectations but well below on revenue, alongside a one-off goodwill impairment tied to weak government and defence conditions.

• FY26 uEBITDA guided to $30-30.5m vs $29.8m ests (2% beat at midpoint), and against prior guidance of $30-31m

• FY26 revenue of $348-352m vs $368.6m ests (5% miss at midpoint), down from prior guidance of $364-374m, driven by June deals recognised as agent rather than principal with no profit impact

• 2H26 operating cashflow of $22-23m, marking a return to normal positive cash flow

• One-off non-cash goodwill impairment of $20-25m, primarily on historic government and defence acquisitions in the Canberra market amid reduced discretionary spending

• FY27 organic growth expected across revenue, EBIT and underlying EBITDA, materially weighted to 2H27 on planned AI, ERP and Scholarion investment

Company page: Atturra (ATA)

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My two cents on Paladin Energy

[9:43 am] Paladin Energy continues to be a smooth operator, with today's update marking two straight quarters of better-than-expected production.

• Preliminary Q3 report on 17 April had production of 1.29Mlb vs. 1.18Mlb ests (9% beat)

• Q3 also had cost of production at $40.3/lb vs. $45.3/lb ests (11% beat), driven by the successful mining fleet mobilisation and improved plant recovery rates

• Though the average realised price was slightly soft at $68.3/lb vs. $73.8/lb ests (7% miss)

• The update also upgraded FY26 production guidance to 4.5-4.8Mlb from 4.0-4.4Mlb (10.7% upgrade at the midpoint)

PDN shares finished the session 2.7% higher to $14.54, despite rallying as much as 6.7%.

Despite the production and guidance beat, analysts were rather downbeat.

• Macquarie downgraded to Neutral, raised target from $13.50 to $13.55. Stock viewed as having re-rated too far ahead of fundamentals, with FY27 production downside risks versus consensus and better value seen elsewhere in uranium equities.

• JPMorgan maintained Underweight, lowered target from $9.40 to $9.30. Operational beat seen as masking longer-term headwinds, with valuation remaining stretched as cost and pricing dynamics create conflicting signals on true underlying value.

Today's Q4/full-year result and FY27 guidance comes against a much more tempered backdrop, with Paladin shares down around 40% since 17 April. At the same time, short interest in the stock has climbed to 11.70%. So perhaps a bit of upside to look forward to from these levels?

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Paladin Energy guides FY27 Langer Heinrich production ahead of expectations

[9:30 am] Paladin Energy issued FY27 Langer Heinrich guidance, with production guided above Macquarie's estimate.

• FY27 production guided up 11% to 5.1-5.6Mlb at the midpoint on FY26 actual of 4.82Mlb, a 6% beat vs Macquarie's 5.03Mlb (Apr-26)

• FY27 U3O8 sales up ~16% to 4.8-5.3Mlb on FY26 sales of 4.35Mlb

• FY27 production cost guided to $44-48/lb, above the $43.3/lb delivered in FY26

• FY27 capex of $29-35m, well up on FY26 capex of $12.1m

Company page: Paladin Energy (PDN)

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Paladin Energy Q4 uranium production beats estimates as Langer Heinrich ramp-up completes

[9:26 am] Paladin Energy reported Q4 uranium production ahead of market expectations, with FY26 output at the upper end of guidance following the completed Langer Heinrich ramp-up.

• Q4 uranium produced of 1.23Mlb vs 1.19Mlb ests (3% beat), with FY26 production of 4.82Mlb topping guidance of 4.5-4.8Mlb

• Q4 uranium sold of 1.35Mlb vs 1.28Mlb ests (5% beat), with FY26 sales of 4.35Mlb above 3.8-4.2Mlb guidance

• Q4 average selling price of $70.6/lb vs $76.0 ests (7% miss)

• Q4 cost of production of $51.6/lb vs $53.8 ests (4% lower), with FY26 costs of $43.3/lb below the $44-48 guidance

• Q4 capex of $5.1m vs $9.5m ests, with FY26 capex of $12.1m below $15-17m guidance

• Cash and investments of $265m vs $260.7m ests, plus an undrawn $70m revolving credit facility

• PLS Project advanced, with the CNSC deeming the Construction Licence application sufficient to proceed and hearings targeted for end of calendar 2027

Company page: Paladin Energy (PDN)

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WiseTech to acquire FRDM.ai to accelerate VerifyWise

[9:19 am] WiseTech Global has entered a binding agreement to acquire California-based supply chain risk and compliance platform FRDM.ai.

• Upfront consideration of US$10m in cash and WTC shares, with all-cash earn-outs of up to US$14.31m

• Completion expected 3 August 2026, subject to customary conditions precedent

• FRDM.ai maps supplier networks beyond direct suppliers and scores risk in real time across modern slavery, geopolitical, human rights and other supply chain risks

• Combines with BorderWise, Denied Party Screening and Global Knowledge to create VerifyWise, extending compliance from transaction-level screening to multi-tier network verification

• Cross-sell opportunity across WiseTech's network of more than 22,000 logistics providers and over 500,000 connected enterprises

Company page: WiseTech Global (WTC)

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Lynas Q4 NdPr production misses estimates on Mt Weld ore quality issues

[9:15 am] Lynas Rare Earths continues its streak of weaker-than-expected production amid ongoing operational issues at its Mt Weld Project. For context, the company's Q3 total rare earth production of 3,233 tonnes was ~19% below consensus due to issues at the Kalgoorlie cracking and leaching facility. The stock fell 2.0% on the day (21-Apr).

• Q4 NdPr production of 1,857t vs 2,179.5t ests (15% miss), reflecting Mt Weld water recycling plant and ore concentrate quality issues

• Total REO production of 3,481t vs 3,635.0t ests (4% miss)

• Q4 sales revenue of $288.9m vs $372.9m ests (23% miss), up 70% on the prior corresponding period and the highest since Q4 FY22

• Record average sales price of $98.2/kg vs $101 ests (3% miss), on improved NdPr pricing and a heavier heavy rare earth mix

• HRE facility cost blows out to around $294m from around $180m, on additional equipment for customer specifications, higher non-China sourcing costs and cost escalation

• Samarium demand building, with first customer orders expected to be fulfilled in Q1 FY27

Company page: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

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Beach Energy Q4 production misses on softer volumes despite oil price strength

[9:11 am] Beach Energy finished FY26 on a weak note, with production and revenue both missing market expectations.

• Q4 production of 4.9MMboe vs 5.1MMboe ests (4% miss)

• Q4 sales revenue of $400m vs $429.0m ests (7% miss)

• Realised oil price up 39% to $174/bbl vs $155.45 ests (12% beat), while realised gas price down 1% to $11.1/GJ vs $11.03 ests (in line)

• Q4 capex of $241m vs $205.3m ests (17% higher)

• FY26 production of 19.4MMboe, at the bottom of the 19.4-20.3MMboe guidance range

• Otway interest sold, with Beach to receive $70m upfront plus a $3.75/GJ royalty on up to 62 PJ for its operated stake in VIC/L35, implying value of around $130m after tax

• Liquidity of $983m and net gearing of 10.6%, with a capital management framework review update due at full year results

Company page: Beach Energy (BPT)

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Cleanaway CFO Paul Binfield to step down as FY26 EBIT guidance edges past consensus

[9:08 am] Cleanaway Waste Management announced the departure of CFO Paul Binfield alongside FY26 underlying EBIT guidance slightly ahead of consensus.

• FY26 underlying EBIT guided to $470m vs $468.1m ests (in line)

• Nigel Simonsz appointed CFO, commencing 27 July, previously CFO and CEO of United Petroleum and CFO at Sigma Healthcare and Australian Agricultural Company

• Binfield to remain through H1 FY27 to support the FY26 reporting process and ensure an orderly transition

Cleanaway shares are down 11.2% year-to-date and down 20.1% in the last twelve months.

Company page: Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

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AMP brings in UBS to weigh potential banking unit sale

[9:06 am] AMP has engaged UBS to assist with any discussions around a sale of its banking division, according to the AFR, despite no active sell-side process or buyers.

• UBS on standby as defence adviser, with AMP having requested proposals from investment banks earlier this year, though no formal process is underway

• Limited buyer set for a mid-tier bank given big four and Macquarie dominance, with buyers also wary of splitting the bank from the larger wealth unit that feeds it

• AMP Bank holds 0.9% of the residential mortgage market with a $23bn lending book and 0.5% of household deposits, similar in size to Bank of Queensland and HSBC

• FY25 net profit after tax fell 9.8% to $55m, the only AMP unit to report a contraction

• Macquarie applies a 30% discount to AMP Bank on sub-scale operations and conglomerate reliance, valuing it at 16 cents per share or $402m equity value

Source: AFR

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Lotus Resources to stay suspended pending strategic funding package

[9:05 am] Lotus Resources responded to an ASX aware letter and intends to remain suspended until a strategic funding package is finalised.

• Final assay and classification results for the 124k lbs of U3O8 expected approximately mid to late August, with the material still potentially capable of acceptance by Orano

• 93k lbs of off-specification U3O8 potentially capable of acceptance by Orano outside standard terms, at a discount or with increased treatment charges or penalties for impurities

• ConverDyn/Cameco accreditation not actively being sought at this point, though discussions continue, with qualification not required to deliver product to customers from converters

• Steady-state production targeted within Q4, with all actions under the Process Optimisation Program expected complete by end of September

• Potential liability of up to $7m to be funded via an equity raise and/or quasi equity options

Lotus hasn't traded since 17 June, with the shares down 72% year-to-date. The stock is the most shorted on the market, with short interest of 22.80%.

Company page: Lotus Resources (LOT)

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Trump ramps up tariff campaign with 50% levy on Canada and fresh Section 301 threats

[9:04 am] A notable uptick in trade headlines from the Trump administration, headlined by steep new duties on Canada and signs a broader tariff round is imminent as global 10% levies expire this week.

• 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods announced Monday under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, covering items such as milk, beer and plywood that account for more than 5% of Canadian exports, but excluding energy, minerals and categories already under specific tariffs

• Levies apply even under USMCA compliance, with USTR Greer framing them as a response to Canada retaliating against earlier US tariff efforts, while PM Carney said Canada was within its rights to match earlier actions but stands ready to engage

• US-Mexico bilateral talks on revising the USMCA are set for this week, notably excluding Canada

• Broader Section 301 tariffs on dozens of countries could be announced as soon as this week per the FT, likely landing between 10-12.5%, as the administration's 10% global duties imposed after February's Supreme Court decision expire on Friday

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SpaceX snaps seven-day slide as maiden earnings date triggers first share unlock

[9:03 am] SpaceX rose 3% on Tuesday, ending a seven-day losing streak after setting 4 August for its debut earnings report, which also opens its first insider lock-up window.

• First earnings due 4 August, with the staggered lock-up letting insiders sell 20% of eligible locked-up stock, up to 911.5m shares, from 6 August

• A further 10% could unlock if the stock closes at least 30% above the IPO price on five of the ten trading days into the report

• Stock had shed nearly half its value from the 16 June intraday high of $225.64, down 43% from its $211.39 record close, cutting Musk's net worth to around $786bn from above $1tn

• Short sellers have piled in, with bearish positioning reaching about a third of the public float, prompting Musk to warn their survival odds are very low

Source: CNBC

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Oracle credit risk hits near 18-year high on AI debt angst

[8:55 am] The cost of insuring Oracle's debt against default climbed to its highest since at least 2008 as investors questioned whether its heavy AI spending will pay off.

• Five-year CDS rose to about 2.03 percentage points, the highest on record back to end-2008, topping Friday's prior peak of 198.23 basis points

• Bonds sold off across the curve, with the 6.7% 2056 notes widening around 8 basis points to 263bp and the 5.7% 2036 notes around 9 basis points wider at 205bp

• S&P cut Oracle to one notch above junk earlier this month, citing rising AI spending, leaving it the credit market's key barometer for AI risk

• Moody's is the focus from here, holding a Baa2 rating with a negative outlook, with Morgan Stanley flagging medium-term fallen-angel risk dependent on execution and monetisation

• Renewed AI capex fears from a Chinese startup's model have rattled tech ahead of earnings, with Oracle due to report on 9 September

Source: Bloomberg

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TSMC to lift chip prices by up to 10% from 2027

[8:55 am] TSMC will raise prices on both advanced and mature nodes by as much as 10% in 2027 to offset rising materials, equipment and overseas plant construction costs, according to Nikkei Asia.

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Oil continues its ascent

[8:53 am] Brent settled 3.1% higher overnight to US$91.63 a barrel.

Prices are now:

• Up 25.1% vs. pre-war levels (27-Feb)

• Up 30.6% from the recent 2-Jul low

• Down 23.3% from the brief US$119.50 high on 9-Mar

Brent daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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US-Iran conflict escalates as Hormuz nears standstill and oil risks build

[8:47 am] The US completed its 10th straight night of strikes on Iran as mediators floated a 10-day ceasefire, with the Strait of Hormuz all but closed and a Houthi blockade threat piling fresh pressure on oil.

• US launched a fresh wave of strikes on Tuesday, targeting Iranian command centres, missile and drone sites and air defences, after Trump vowed Tehran would pay for the deaths of three US service members in Jordan and Iraq

• Persian Gulf flows have collapsed to below 45% of pre-war levels, with Hormuz traffic near a standstill and a tanker forced to abandon ship after being struck early Tuesday

• Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, putting roughly 2.5m barrels a day of Saudi oil at risk via the Red Sea, one of the few remaining routes able to offset lost Hormuz volumes

• US intelligence sees a stalemate, assessing that further strikes are unlikely to soften Tehran's stance, while Israel believes Iran moved enrichment centrifuges into the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain site

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Korean traders cut margin loans to lowest since April as chip losses bite

[8:46 am] South Korean investors have slashed leveraged stock positions to a three-month low as memory-chip losses halt the market's rally.

• Margin loan balance fell to 33.4tn won ($22.6bn) as of 16 July, the lowest since 15 April and down 13% from the end-June peak of 38.6tn won

• Kospi down nearly 30% from its June peak on doubts over the sustainability of the AI rally

• Samsung Electronics has shed roughly a quarter of its market value this month, while SK Hynix has lost about a third

• Retail appetite is cooling, with investor deposits down to 108.1tn won on 16 July from a 4 June peak of 139.7tn won

• JPMorgan sees a self-correcting mechanism, noting fundamentals remain solid but rapid gains drove elevated volatility and forced foreign selling

• Regional unwind, with Chinese traders cutting margin debt at the fastest pace since 2015-16 and Taiwanese retail investors trimming leverage at the quickest pace in over a year

Source: Bloomberg

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China unleashes broad state support to arrest tech stock rout

[8:45 am] Beijing has deployed regulators, insurers and state-backed funds in one of its widest market-stabilisation efforts in years after a sharp selloff in AI and chip stocks.

• State buying suspected in the ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF, which drew a record 13.8bn yuan ($2bn) of inflows on Monday, with the scale pointing to national team support

• STAR 50 index surged 11% on Tuesday, its biggest one-day gain in nearly two years, after tumbling around 17% last week as leveraged positions unwound at the fastest pace since the 2015-16 crash

• At least five major insurers pledged to lift investments, with China Life buying more than 10bn yuan of stocks and funds and PICC and Ping An making similar commitments

• Broader gauges rallied on the support, with the ChiNext up 7.1% and the CSI 300 closing 3.1% higher

• Traders remain cautious, noting the intervention may slow losses but is unlikely to reverse sentiment without a return to more reasonable valuations

Source: Bloomberg

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GM lifts full-year profit outlook on truck pricing and lower tariffs

[8:42 am] GM beat on earnings in Q2 and raised its full-year EBIT guidance, buoyed by strong margins on its largest vehicles, though EV-related charges dragged on net income. Shares rallied 4.9% but still down 1.8% year-to-date.

• Revenue up 1.9% to US$48.03bn vs US$47.01bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 41% to US$3.57 vs US$3.20 ests (12% beat)

• Adjusted EBIT up 30% to US$3.94bn vs US$3.79bn ests (4% beat)

• FY26 adjusted EBIT guidance raised to US$14bn-US$16bn, from a prior US$13.5bn-US$15.5bn

• FY26 GAAP net income cut to US$8.4bn-US$11.4bn on a further US$2.3bn of EV charges, taking total EV write-downs since H2'25 to US$10.9bn

• CEO Mary Barra flagged enhanced pricing power on the next-gen truck platform as a driver of continued momentum into 2027.

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3M raises full-year guidance as turnaround gathers pace

[8:41 am] 3M beat on the top and bottom lines in Q2 and lifted its full-year earnings outlook, sending shares up 7.3% to a fresh five-month high.

• Revenue up 2.4% to US$6.5bn vs US$6.4bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 11% to US$2.40 vs US$2.24 ests (7% beat)

• Adjusted operating margin of 24.9%, up 40bps year-on-year

• FY26 adjusted EPS guidance raised to US$8.80-US$8.95 vs US$8.74 ests (2% beat at midpoint), from a prior range of no more than US$8.70

• FY26 organic sales growth seen above 3.5% and total sales growth above 4.5%, with 70-80bps of operating margin expansion

• CEO Bill Brown flagged Microsoft's deployment of 3M's Expanded Beam Optics technology for AI data centre infrastructure as a key growth win.

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US stocks rally as chipmakers lead, investors pivot to earnings

[8:37 am] Wall Street snapped a three-day losing streak on Tuesday as strong semiconductor gains and better-than-expected corporate results outweighed ongoing US-Iran tensions.

• Dow up 0.74% to 52,224.64, S&P 500 up 0.89% to 7,509.20 and Nasdaq up 1.29% to 25,837.21, with all three breaking three-day losing streaks

• Semiconductors led the advance, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 4.5% and Micron (+12.1%), Intel (+8.6%), AMD (+8.1%) and Nvidia (+1.9%) among the standouts

• 3M jumped more than 7% and General Motors gained nearly 5%, both after topping top and bottom-line estimates for Q2

• Earnings season off to a strong start, with nearly 88% of the roughly 66 S&P 500 names reported so far beating bottom-line ests

• Breadth was soft, with the equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.16%) trailing the cap-weighted benchmark by 73 bps

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 21 pts (+0.24%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks snapped a three-day losing streak as semiconductors led a relatively broad rebound

• Chip names like Micron, Intel and AMD rallied 8-12%, while better-than-expected earnings from General Motors and 3M drove broader buying appetite

• Trump imposed new 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods while fresh US strikes on Iran pushed Brent ~3% higher to US$91.63 a barrel

• Gold bounced 1.7% to US$4,079/oz, while copper soared 2.97% to US$6.56/lb on signs that supply conditions in China are continuing to tighten