ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 7th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, October 7. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 flat in choppy session as 30-year yield hits record high

[2:20 pm] That's a wrap! The ASX 200 is trading fractionally lower, down 0.7 points (-0.01%), in a choppy session that has swung between a low of -0.37% and a high of +0.21%. It's the reverse of yesterday's trade, when large caps led and small caps tanked. Today, the ASX 20 and ASX 50 are down 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, largely due to weakness in Materials (-0.6%) and Financials (-0.2%), while the Small Ords (+0.35%) and Emerging Companies (unch) are holding up.

Australian bond yields have continued to climb:

• 3-year yield up 4bps to 4.93%, below late-September highs of 5.1%

• 10-year yield up 6bps to 5.41%, not far from late-September highs of 5.46%

• 30-year yield up 5bps to 5.88%, surpassing Monday's high to trade at its highest since the benchmark launched in October 2016

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Consumer discretionary leads as sector steadies after 16% sell-off

[2:03 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary index is today's best performing sector, up 0.75%, as it continues to stabilise after a 16% drawdown between 6 August and 28 September. The sell-off was driven by a mix of stretched valuations, with Wesfarmers trading at around 36x earnings, along with the usual suspects of high energy prices, rising rate hike expectations and abysmal consumer confidence. On that last point, Tuesday's Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 4.7% to 80.4, among the 40 worst readings since the survey began in the early 1970s.

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Lithium stocks give back recent gains

[1:59 pm] Lithium names including Core Lithium, PMET and Liontown are trading sharply lower, giving back some of the sector's two to three-day bounce. There's no lead from Chinese lithium carbonate futures, with markets closed for the final day of China's week-long National Day holiday.

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Australian industry slumps in September as uncertainty and costs bite

[1:22 pm] Australian industrial activity fell back into deep contraction in September, reversing much of August's improvement as volatile prices and tighter credit weighed on businesses.

• Australian Industry Index fell 21.1 points to -25.5, with activity/sales down 28.5 points to -31.0

• New orders fell 22.4 points to -35.9, with trend scores suppressed since the energy crisis began in March

• Construction PCI dropped 29.8 points to -34.5, while the manufacturing PMI improved 6.2 points to -8.7

• Finance availability deteriorated sharply, with loan and lease approvals taking longer as lenders grew more cautious on credit risk

• Input prices eased 10.6 points to 56.8 while sales prices rose 13.0 points to 13.6, and the wages indicator climbed 2.8 points to 49.5

• Pockets of growth came from data centres, defence and renewable infrastructure projects

Source: Ai Group

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Goodstart to take over 20 Arena centres in Edge Early Learning sale

[1:20 pm] Goodstart Early Learning has agreed in principle to take over most of the Edge Early Learning centres leased from Arena REIT, following Edge's collapse into administration.

This was announced at 11:46 am AEDT, with ARF shares currently up 13.7% to $2.37.

• Conditional heads of agreement signed between Edge's administrator and Goodstart for 31 Edge centre businesses

• Arena exposure with the deal covering 20 of the 27 Arena-owned centres occupied by Edge

• Remaining seven Arena centres sit within the 33 Edge centres the administrator is still seeking to sell

• Rent is currently being received on all 27 Arena-owned centres

• Lease assignment requires Arena's consent, with the REIT conducting due diligence and the deal still subject to final agreement

• Security of about $4m in bank guarantees and deposits is held over the Edge leases

Company page: Arena REIT (ARF)

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Taiwan outpaces Korea by widest margin since 2000 as AI trade broadens

[11:50 am] Taiwan's sharemarket beat Korea's by about 23 percentage points last quarter, as investors favour its broader exposure across the AI supply chain over Korea's reliance on two memory chipmakers.

• The Taiex is up 72% this year, the best of more than 90 global indexes, ahead of the Kospi at about 65%

• Samsung and SK Hynix fell between 19% and 33% in the September quarter, ending a six-quarter rally driven by surging memory chip prices

• About 40% of fund managers in BofA's September survey were overweight Taiwan, vs 25% for Korea

• Societe Generale prefers Taiwan over Korea, expecting memory chip price gains to slow before normalising in 2028 as Chinese competition rises

• Citi's Peter Lee says investors should start buying Samsung and SK Hynix, arguing the market is underestimating 2027 demand for high-bandwidth memory chips

• The Taiex trades at about 18 times forward earnings vs about 5.5 times for the Kospi, reflecting fears of a memory cycle peak and Korea's long-standing discount to global peers

Source: Bloomberg

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BHP sells Kambalda nickel concentrator to Gold Fields

[11:46 am] BHP has agreed to sell the Kambalda Nickel Concentrator and surrounding tenements to Gold Fields, offloading part of its idled Western Australian nickel business.

• No sale price was disclosed, with completion expected in CY2027 subject to conditions including regulatory approvals

• Gold Fields will assess options for the concentrator's long-term use and offer jobs to staff who directly support the asset

• The rest of BHP's WA Nickel assets remain in temporary suspension, which began in July 2024 due to a global oversupply of nickel

• BHP plans to review the suspension by February 2027, with options including divestment, extended suspension, restart or closure

Company page: BHP Group (BHP)

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SKS Technologies slides 8.8% after founders' $106m block trade

[11:03 am] SKS Technologies shares are trading below the price fund managers paid in Tuesday night's founder selldown.

• Shares down 8.8% to $10.18, about 4% below the $10.60 block trade price

• Block trade of $106m, or 8.7% of the company, was sold by Peter, Greg and Matthew Jinks at a 5.1% discount to Tuesday's close

• Jinks family retains around 20.9% and has no intention of further sales for the foreseeable future

• Share price had risen 166% over the past year before the sale

• $38m data centre contract with Built was announced hours before the block trade

Company page: SKS Technologies (SKS)

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ASX 200 edges lower as banks weigh, small caps bounce

[10:58 am] The ASX 200 is down 5 points (-0.06%) as a pullback in the banks and flat miners offset modest gains across the rest of the market. Small caps are faring better, with the Emerging Companies (+0.28%) and Small Ords (+0.45%) bouncing off near two-month lows, while the large cap ASX 20 and ASX 50 are down 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:08 am] Uranium stocks top the leaderboard after Google's massive 3.6GW nuclear deal with Constellation Energy drove a broad-based rally for uranium names overnight.

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Top ASX 200 losers

[10:08 am] Regis dips despite saying its first quarter was delivered to plan despite heavy September rainfall, while most lithium names open slightly lower.

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Sigma Lithium resumes operations after appeals court upholds licences

[9:53 am] Sigma Lithium has restarted mining at Grota do Cirilo after a Federal Court of Appeals upheld its environmental licences, and says it remains on track for its 2027 production target.

• Licence suspension stemmed from an emergency ruling on 8 September by a local federal judge in Teófilo Otoni, linked to a lawsuit by Quilombola community association Ngolo, with Sigma saying its operations sit outside the claimed area

• 2027 guidance of 330,000t annualised lithium oxide concentrate production by year-end reaffirmed, with no additional mine or processing capacity required

• Plant capacity has been demonstrated above 950t a day since a Q4 2024 upgrade, vs roughly 904t a day implied by the 330,000t target

• Media reports denied with Sigma rejecting claims that a geotechnical notification over the North Pit halted mining, noting it does not operate that pit

• Minas Gerais elections returned a pro-lithium governor in the first round, which Sigma expects to ease local headwinds ahead of the 25 October presidential runoff

Company page: Sigma Lithium (SAU)

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Southern Cross Gold hits 2.7m at 178.6g/t AuEq in Sunday Creek infill

[9:50 am] Closer spaced drilling at the Golden Dyke prospect is lifting grades and extending vein sets west towards Christina.

• SDDSC225 returned 2.7m at 178.6g/t AuEq from 662.3m, the 13th best composite at Sunday Creek, on the GD40 vein set with no drilling beneath it

• SDDSC218 returned 6.8m at 50.1g/t AuEq from 537.9m, including 0.22m at 1,290g/t Au

• High-grade hits include eight composites and twelve individual assays above 100g/t Au across four of the five holes

• Westward extension of 30m to 50m from four vein sets not previously recognised within the Exploration Target

• Antimony grades in SDDSC218 peaked at 53.5% Sb within 2.2m at 49.0g/t AuEq (27.7g/t Au, 8.9% Sb) from 495.9m

Company page: Southern Cross Gold (SX2)

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Cyclopharm's Technegas named preferred lung imaging agent in China

[9:47 am] China's leading respiratory and nuclear medicine bodies have independently matched July's US and international guidelines, making Technegas the named agent of choice across Cyclopharm's major markets.

• Seven Chinese medical bodies led by the Chinese Thoracic Society unanimously recommended Technegas as the preferred ventilation agent for pulmonary embolism lung imaging, with DTPA aerosol only if Technegas is unavailable

• Endorsement covers the respiratory and pulmonary vascular physicians who order the scan as well as the nuclear medicine physicians who perform it

• July 2026 guidelines from US, European and ANZ societies named Technegas "generally preferred when available"

• Beyond diagnosis the consensus backs lung V/Q imaging for screening, follow-up and treatment response in PE and CTEPH

• China nuclear medicine spans 787 SPECT-capable departments that performed over 2.7m scans in 2023, with the sector expected to roughly double by 2035 under a government plan

• Technegas footprint already extends to most provinces across China

Company page: Cyclopharm (CYC)

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Veris wins $4.12m Sydney Metro contract extension

[9:36 am] Veris has won a contract extension on Sydney Metro's Western Sydney Airport line, building on work it has delivered on the project since November 2023.

• $4.12m contract on the Stations, Systems, Trains, Operations and Maintenance (SSTOM) package runs through to the end of 2027

• Scope covers multi-disciplinary engineering survey, asset monitoring and cadastral survey work

• Client is the Parklife Metro Consortium of Plenary, WeBuild, Siemens and RATP Dev, which holds a 15-year contract to operate and maintain Sydney Metro

• Secured forward workload exceeds $60m, with a weighted opportunity pipeline above $195m

Never heard of this ~$26m market cap company before, which maps, measures and monitors land and infrastructure for government, transport, property and utility clients. A sizeable contract deal given the size of the company. Its FY26 results (26-Aug) had revenue up 4.9% to $102m, underlying PBT of $2.2m (vs. 2.6m in FY25) and cash balance of $13.3m

Company page: Veris (VRS)

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Forrestania Resources defines 223koz maiden resource at Tampia

[9:35 am] Forrestania Resources has re-established a resource beneath the Tampia pit that Ramelius mined out and later removed from its inventory.

• Maiden resource of 4.6Mt at 1.50g/t for 223,300oz of gold at a 0.5g/t cut-off

• Ramelius mined about 3.0Mt at 2.1g/t for roughly 201,100oz from the Tampia open pit between 2021 and 2023, trucking ore about 140km to its Edna May plant

• Original resource was 8.2Mt at 1.7g/t for 460,000oz when Ramelius started mining

• Remaining resource beneath the pit was removed from Ramelius' inventory once mining finished

Company page: Forrestania Resources (FRS)

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Regis Resources builds cash pile to $1.28bn as Q1 output tracks guidance

[9:30 am] Regis Resources says its first quarter was delivered to plan despite heavy September rainfall, with FY27 production guidance weighted to the second half.

• Group gold production of 83.0koz, about 22% of the 380koz FY27 guidance midpoint

  • Duketon produced 56.1koz vs FY27 guidance of 240koz to 270koz

  • Tropicana produced 27.0koz vs FY27 guidance of 120koz to 130koz

• Pre-tax cash and bullion generated of $146m, or $95m excluding the $51m Vault break fee

• Tax payments of $53m in the quarter

• Cash and bullion of $1.28bn at 30 September

• Growth capex is weighted to the first half as multiple open pits are started

Company page: Regis Resources (RRL)

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SKS Technologies founders sell $106m block after 166% rally

[9:21 am] The Jinks family has sold down part of its SKS Technologies stake through an after-market block trade, following a 166% rise in the share price over the past year.

• Block trade of $106m at $10.60 a share, a 5.1% discount to Tuesday's close, covering 8.7% of the $1.3bn company

• Sellers were executive chairman Peter Jinks, executive director Greg Jinks and CEO Matthew Jinks

• Jinks family retains around 20.9% of the company and has no intention of further sales for the foreseeable future

• FY26 revenue of nearly $348m, up from about $35m in 2021, with about 48% coming from data centres

• $38m data centre contract with Built was announced hours before the sale

Source: AFR

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Firmus pitches higher margins than CoreWeave as US$5.5bn IPO book opens

[9:20 am] Firmus is pitching itself as more profitable and cheaper than CoreWeave as brokers work to close the second-largest float in Australian history, the AFR reports.

• IPO raising US$5.5bn at a market cap of about $43.9bn, with the book due to close Thursday ahead of a 23 October listing

• Margin targets of about 75% EBITDA and 30.2% EBIT vs 62% and 8.6% for CoreWeave

• IPO pricing of about 12x next 12 months EBIT guidance of US$5.8bn, lifted from US$5bn after a Meta contract, vs CoreWeave at 17x on mid-September data

• Track record of just 46MW delivered and US$50.8m in full-year revenue, against a contracted book of US$67.8bn

• Batam data centre contributes US$1.92bn or about a third of forecast EBIT, from a project announced four months ago

• Escrow covers 42.4% of shares at listing, with founders required to hold more than half their stakes until Blackstone's US$10bn loan is repaid

Source: AFR

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Emerging markets extend gains as US yields and dollar ease

[9:09 am] Lower Treasury yields, a weaker US dollar and steady oil gave emerging market assets some relief.

• EM stocks rose for a second straight day, while MSCI's EM currency index gained as much as 0.2% before closing flat

• Hungarian forint led after officials said Hungary could adopt the euro as early as 2031

• Brazil's rally is expected to run into the 25 October runoff, with over $700m flowing into the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF on Monday

• India is expected to raise rates this week for the first time in nearly four years, while Chile pledged dollar sales after a 4% peso slide in a month

Source: Bloomberg

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Uranium ETF climbs 4% as Google's nuclear deal lifts demand outlook

[9:05 am] Google's deal with Constellation adds new nuclear capacity rather than simply redirecting existing supply, which means more uranium demand from reactors already operating.

• Global X Uranium ETF rose 4.0% overnight, with key producers like Cameco and Kazatomprom up 6.3% and 3.5% respectively

• 890MW of new nuclear capacity will come from uprating 11 existing Constellation reactors in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, lifting output and fuel needs without new builds, with first delivery in 2028

• PJM capacity prices are up more than 11-fold since 2024, and PJM has proposed that data centres bring their own power or risk being cut off at peak demand

• Uranium term price reached a record $96.50/lb in August and September, above the prior high of $95.00 set in 2007 and 2008, while spot finished September at $89.63/lb

This should drove positive flows for local names like Paladin Energy, Boss Energy and Deep Yellow, all of which remain heavily shorted. Boss is currently the second most shorted stock on the market, at 13.58%, and Paladin at #9, with 11.36% short interest.

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Novavax and Moderna slide after WHO calls plague risk low

[9:01 am] Vaccine stocks gave back Monday's outbreak-driven gains after the WHO played down the risk from a suspected plague death in Russia.

• Novavax fell nearly 10% after rallying 20% on Monday

• Moderna fell almost 8% giving back all of Monday's gains, though it remains more than 130% higher over three months

• WHO risk assessment is moderate to low for Irkutsk, low for Russia and very low for the European region, with no plague detected in tested contacts

• BioNTech fell 2% while Pfizer was little changed

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Brent holds near US$100 as Middle East flows recover

[8:57 am] Oil steadied as recovering Gulf exports and G7 stockpile releases offset escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.

• Brent up 0.90% to US$101.12 a barrel, reversing intraday declines of 3.1%

• Shell CEO Wael Sawan said Middle East flows are close to 80% of prewar levels but warned "there is only so long that you can continue to do that without further discontinuities emerging"

• Vitol's CEO said around 12m bpd of crude and 2m bpd of refined products left the Middle East on tankers in the past seven to 10 days

• Houthi attacks targeted Saudi airports in Jazan and Najran, injuring three

• G7 agreed to release 100m barrels of diesel and crude, with the IEA meeting next week amid confusion over volumes

• China's teapot refiners are paying premiums of up to $18 a barrel to Brent for Iraqi crude, with at least 50 tankers mostly carrying Iranian oil bottled up by the US blockade

• Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said global oil stockpiles could take two years to rebuild

• EIA forecasts world production falling to 101.1m bpd in 2026 from a record 106.3m bpd, with demand down to 102.4m bpd from 104.4m bpd

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Treasury yields ease from 2002 highs as oil pressure fades

[8:55 am] Global bond yields pulled back from multi-decade highs, though strategists are split on whether the peak is in.

• US 10-year yield fell 2 bps to 5.28% and the 30-year was little changed at 5.655%, after both hit their highest since 2002 on Monday

• Apollo's Torsten Slok expects yields to peak by early November, citing a possible Middle East resolution before the midterms, oil releases and pressure on housing and autos

• BNP Paribas warned scrapping the 20-year bond "will not work" and could lift yields, keeping its short 30-year call targeting 5.8% ahead of the 4 November refunding statement

• Ray Dalio warned of more Treasury pain if demand from China and Japan pulls back

• European yields fell with Italy's 10-year down 11bps to 4.52%, France down 10bps to 4.76% and the UK down 6bps to 5.36%

Source: Bloomberg

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Constellation surges on 3.6GW Google power deal

[8:54 am] Constellation Energy shares jumped as much as 14% after Google contracted 3,590MW of power in the largest US grid, PJM.

• 20-year agreement covers 890MW from 11 upgraded nuclear units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, with first delivery in 2028

• 15-year supply deal for a further 2,700MW not tied to a specific source, providing long-term revenue certainty

• Over $4.3bn of new investment in Constellation's fleet

• PJM capacity prices are up more than 11-fold since 2024, with the deal a response to its "bring your own power" proposal for data centres

• Vistra rallied 12% after the Energy Department unveiled a $4.2bn nuclear investment in Pennsylvania and Ohio

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Nvidia closes in on $6tn as stock returns to record high

[8:53 am] Nvidia is on track to become the first $6tn company, despite trading below the broader market's multiple.

• Up 30% in 2026 adding $1.3tn to its market cap, now just shy of $5.8tn, and the biggest contributor to the S&P 500's 14% gain this year

• $150bn buyback extension takes total authorisation to $235bn, the largest increase on record

• Forward P/E below 18x sits near 10-year lows and under the S&P 500's 19x, with CEO Jensen Huang calling Nvidia "the world's first and only growth value stock"

• FY27 net income expected to double on 90% revenue growth, while the company has projected 70% sales growth in FY28 vs 45% expected

• Lagging semis with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 87% in 2026

• Index concentration at a record, with Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft making up over 21% of the S&P 500 vs the 13.4% peak of IBM, AT&T and ExxonMobil in the mid-1980s

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S&P 500 PEG ratio hits 30-year low despite record highs

[8:53 am] US stocks may be at records, but valuations relative to expected earnings growth are the cheapest in three decades.

• PEG ratio for the S&P 500 is at a 30-year low, according to Yardeni Research

• Q3 earnings growth expected at 29.5% year-on-year, which would be the third straight quarter above 25% and eighth straight of double-digit growth

• Q4 and full year growth expected at 27.6% and 32.4% respectively

• Truist's Keith Lerner said "the weight of the evidence currently supports remaining overweight equities"

Source: Yahoo Finance

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AMD rises as Citi lifts target to $800 on CPU demand

[8:52 am] Citi believes agentic AI is turning CPUs into a bottleneck, with AMD the main beneficiary.

• Citi raised its price target to $800 from $575, implying 27% upside from Monday's close

• CPU market could reach $300bn by 2030 as computing demand from Meta's Muse AI agent grows, according to analyst Atif Malik

• Malik said "In Agentic AI, CPUs have become the new bottleneck"

• Meta exposure with Citi believing Meta is one of the largest customers of AMD's server business

• Shares closed up 2.8% at $649.42

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Marvell jumps as long-term revenue targets smash ests

[8:51 am] Marvell Technology rallied after its Investor Day targets came in well above consensus, taking its year-to-date gain past 240%.

• FY28 revenue target of $20bn vs $18.17bn ests (10% beat)

• FY31 revenue target of $70bn to $90bn vs $47.04bn ests, with the $80bn midpoint 70% above ests

• Midpoint implies revenue quadrupling from FY28 to FY31, or roughly 59% annual growth

• Shares closed up 5.8% at $287.01

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S&P 500 posts first close above 7,800 as chipmakers rally

[8:48 am] Wall Street pushed to fresh records overnight as chip stocks rallied and Treasury yields eased, with traders now looking to the Fed's September meeting minutes due Wednesday.

• S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a record close of 7,818.93, its first finish above 7,800, while the Nasdaq added 0.45% to a record 27,599.79 and the Dow gained 0.49% to 51,521.28

• Chipmakers led gains with Marvell up 5.8%, Broadcom up 3.7% and AMD up nearly 3%

• Memory stocks slumped at midday, with Seagate down 9.1% and Western Digital down 6.9% as investors reassessed demand and profits from the data centre boom

• Small caps lagged with the Russell 2000 down 0.59%

• US trade deficit widened to $105.6bn in August vs $102bn ests, the largest since March 2025

• Integrated Financial Partners' Stephen Kolano said investors are "looking through the inflation concerns right now, especially as it relates to oil, diesel, etc."

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Good morning!

[8:28 am] ASX 200 futures are down 1 pts (-0.01%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Records keep coming as cooler Treasury yields and lower oil let the broader market catch a bid, while Nvidia closes in on a $6tn valuation

  • S&P 500 (+0.58%), Nasdaq (+0.45%), Dow (+0.49%), Russell 2000 (-0.59%)

• The US 10-year bond yield pulled back 2 bps from its highest since 2002, with traders still pricing about an 80% chance the Fed holds at its next meeting

• Nuclear and uranium names rallied after Google signed a 20-year power deal with Constellation Energy

• Biotech was the weak spot as vaccine stocks gave back their plague-scare gains and funds cut exposure