Evening Wrap: ASX 200 bounces! Gold, copper and metals rallies still running hot as brokers update BOQ, EVN, and RIO

A welcome but miniscule bounce in the scheme of things today as gains were concentrated in a few big Tech stocks and the stalwart sectors of Resources and Financials.

There are still a few themes running hot despite the recent market correction, though, and we saw nice continuation rallies in several gold, copper, and base metals stocks.

As we enter a mini-reporting season for many mining companies (quarterly activity and cashflow reports) as well as some of the banks, brokers were busy providing updates. We bring you all the major changes to ratings and price targets in our Broker Moves section.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 36.5 points higher at 7,642.1 , 0.48% from its session low and just 0.19% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by 172 to 104.

The Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.0%) sector was the best performing sector today, bucking the awful lead it got from the Nasdaq overnight. A big gain in Macquarie Technology Group (ASX: MAQ) (+6.5%) which enjoyed a rating upgrade to overweight at JP Morgan was likely to blame. The broker also doubled its price target for MAQ to $100. A 2% gain in sector leader Wisetech Global (ASX: WTC) likely also helped the XIJ's performance.

Also doing well today were the Resources (XJR) (+0.83%) and Financials (XFJ) (+0.66%) sectors. I propose most of the benchmark's gain came from these heavyweights. Gold and base metals stocks featured highly in the combined XJR-XFJ best performers list, with special mentions for Pantoro (ASX: PNR) (+6.1%) (Gold – you're welcome), Aurelia Metals (ASX: AMI) (+5.9%) (Copper), and Metals X (ASX: MLX) (+3.4%) (Tin).

The best of resources and financials today

Doing it tough again today was the Health Care (XHJ) (-0.48%) sector – it’s found itself near the bottom of the sector performance pile all too often over the last couple of weeks.

ChartWatch

Iron Ore SGX 62%

The iron ore rally continues, it's just demand vs supply!

I thought I’d provide a quick update on a couple of metals chart’s we’ve been following closely in ChartWatch lately. The first is iron ore which I’ve first showed you on the major demand-side candle on 8 April.

One candle does not a major reversal make, but it can both demonstrate and trigger a major shift in thinking among market participants. If you were trading iron ore at the time that candle appeared, and you were part of the supply side responsible for smashing prices down to 95.40, that candle probably makes you think you can hold back some supply and get a feeling of what demand will tolerate. You'd want to let the price bounce a bit and see if you can sell at a better price.

If you were part of the demand side on 8 April, either as a long who was getting belted, or as an observer waiting to scoop up cheaper prices, that candle potentially tells you to hang on for a recovery, or that you better start thinking about getting in because someone else has already started buying, respectively.

The psychology of the market is shifted dramatically by just one candle.

But as a trader, I want to see some confirmation – confirmation the various psychologies discussed above are actually playing out. Again, the candles will tell me.

If I see very stunted pullbacks after the massive 8 April candle, there’s clearly a very muted response from the supply side, and even if supply has continued in earnest (I can check this from volumes), the stunted pullback equally shows demand has stepped up.

And that’s what we’ve observed.

Even better, we’ve seen further showings of white candles, and another important tick is the fact we've emphatically closed above the 109.25-111.95 historical supply zone.

The last candle on the iron ore chart above is still live at the time of writing, so I discount it. But, for what it’s worth, so far it is showing early signs of respecting the dynamic supply I’d expect from the long term downtrend ribbon.

That ribbon is the next key supply zone iron ore must eclipse to confirm that a major and enduring low is in, and the price can continue to probe higher points of supply (126.80 is the next key point).

The previous supply zone of 109.25-111.95 moves to demand. As long as the iron ore price continued to close above this zone, the recovery is intact.

High Grade Copper COMEX

Demand retains the upper hand in the battle for the copper price

The other key metals chart we’ve been watching closely is High Grade Copper which trades on the COMEX exchange in the USA. In earlier ChartWatch updates I noted that we’d likely see some supply manifesting itself between historical points of supply at 4.33 and 4.3725.

We did – in the form of several black candles and upward pointing shadows.

None of these candles were decisive in terms of demonstrating that the supply side had wrestled back control, however. Today’s candle (still live) could be the one to confirm the demand-side has dispensed with the excess supply in this zone, and higher points of supply are in the offing. 4.49 is the next point of supply along.

Demand is at 4.13 – 4.2285, but on a close above 4.3725 it will move to 4.33 – 4.3725.

The ST trend remains intact while the price continues to close above the short term trend ribbon.

Economy

Today

• 11:30 AUS Employment Change (+7,200 forecast vs +116,500 previous)

• 11:30 AUS Unemployment rate (3.9% forecast vs 3.7% previous)

Friday

• 00:00 USA Existing Home Sales

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +9.4% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) - Telix Q1 2024 Revenue and Business Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.5% Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ) - No news, upgraded to overweight from underweight and price target increased to $100.00 from $50.00 at Morgan Stanley, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.1% Pantoro (PNR) - No news, continued positive response from yesterday's Investor Presentation and Tuesday's Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +6.0% Westgold Resources (WGX) - Becoming a substantial holder (JP Morgan), bouncing off long term uptrend ribbon 🔎📈

• +5.9% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - No news, rise in copper price on LME and COMEX, bounced off short term uptrend, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down 🔎📈

• +5.2% Challenger (CGF) - Third quarter update

• +4.6% Cettire (CTT) - No news 🤔

• +4.3% Mader Group (MAD) - No news, bouncing off long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +4.2% Emerald Resources (EMR) - Significant Exploration Results Continue at Emerald Projects, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +3.9% Orora (ORA) - ORA - Investor Day Presentation 17 - 18 April 2024

• +3.6% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - No news, general gold sector strength, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -6.0% Imugene (IMU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -4.5% Avita Medical Inc (AVH) - Continued negative response to Tuesday's AVITA Medical Updates Expected First Quarter 2024 Revenue, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -4.3% Resmed Inc (RMD) - No news for RMD, but Eli Lilly announced Wednesday its weight loss drug Zepbound showed adult patients with obesity and obstructive sleep apnea who were treated with the drug saw an improvement in their sleep apnea

• -3.8% Evolution Mining (EVN) - Three broker ratings downgrades, see Broker Moves

• -3.8% Bapcor (BAP) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -3.7% Lovisa Holdings (LOV) - No news, closed below 5-Apr point of supply at 30.41 🔎📉

• -3.6% Novonix (NVX) - No news 🤔

• -3.0% Zip Co (ZIP) - No news, continued negative response to Tuesday's 3Q FY24 results update

• -2.9% Genesis Minerals (GMD) - Quarterly Activities Report - March 2024, closed below short term uptrend ribbon 🔎📉

• -2.9% Sayona Mining (SYA) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

Broker Notes

• Alpha HPA (A4N) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.75 from $1.60

• Adore Beauty Group (ABY) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.32

• Ansell (ANN) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.25 from $26.00

• Accent Group (AX1) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

  • Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $5.00

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.05

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $5.80 from $5.70

  • Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $5.00

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.75

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.60

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $5.50 from $5.00

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.44 from $5.04

• Breville Group (BRG) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $28.00

• City Chic Collective (CCX) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.50

• Coles Group (COL) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.50

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $58.85

• Endeavour Group (EDV) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.40

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.10

  • Downgraded to underperform from buy at CLSA; Price Target: $4.30 from $3.75

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.90 from $4.30

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.10 from $4.20

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.10 from $3.80

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.20 from $3.90

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.10

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.35

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.25 from $4.00

• Healius (HLS) retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.00

• Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN) retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.10

• Integral Diagnostics (IDX) retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.85

• IDP Education (IEL) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.50

• JB HI-FI (JBH) retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $53.90

• James Hardie Industries (JHX) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $63.00

• KMD Brands (KMD) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.55

• Lovisa Holdings (LOV) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $32.50

• Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ) upgraded to overweight from underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $100.00 from $50.00

• Metcash (MTS) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.15

• Monash IVF Group (MVF) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.65

• Paladin Energy (PDN) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $17.45 from $17.50

• Premier Investments (PMV) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $38.00

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $20.58

• Qube Holdings (QUB) initiated at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.70

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $130.00

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $137.00

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $144.00

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $121.00

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $132.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $127.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $139.00

• Sonic Healthcare (SHL) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $31.65

• Super Retail Group (SUL) retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $14.09

• Technology One (TNE) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $18.50

• Temple & Webster Group (TPW) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.25

• Tuas (TUA) initiated at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.50

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.75

• Viva Energy Group (VEA)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.75

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.75

• Wesfarmers (WES) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $55.30

• Woolworths Group (WOW) retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $32.00

Scans