Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips on unwind of EOFY fund moves as resources, energy and property prosper at tech, health's expense

Call it unwinding of tax loss selling, associated bargain hunting, start of the new FY portfolio adjustment – or just the usual ASX shenanigans…you’re still going to get the same result!

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 16.8 points lower at 7,750.7, 0.52% from its session low and just 0.22% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 109 to 170.

The Materials (XMJ) (+1.0%) sector was the best performing sector today, likely in response to generally firmer prices of base metals on the London Metals Exchange on Friday. Also doing well today were the Real Estate (XRE) (+0.88%) and Energy (XEJ) (+0.36%) sectors.

LME base metals moves on Friday.

Contrasting these three, were the Information Technology (XIJ) (-2.2%), Health Care (XHJ) (-1.6%), and Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.98%) sectors.

If we take into account that two of the biggest decliners in the XTJ are really tech stocks (REA Group (ASX: REA) (-2.8%) and Car Group (ASX: CAR) (-1.6%)), then let’s say that the best performing sectors of FY24 in Tech and Health Care were dumped today in favour of the worst performing sectors in Materials, Energy and Real Estate.

I put to you this is no July 1 coincidence!

Call it unwinding of tax loss selling, associated bargain hunting, start of the new FY portfolio adjustment – or just the usual ASX shenanigans…you’re still going to get the same result: A bunch of black candles in some really great uptrends and a bunch of white ones in some really terrible ones! 🤦‍♂️

Economy

Today

• ANZ Job Ads June

  • -2.2% vs -1.9% in May, has been in contraction each month since March

• CHN Caixin Manufacturing PMI June

  • 51.8 vs 51.5 forecast and 51.7 in May

  • Readings above 50 indicate expansion, so that's a positive, and slightly better than forecast as well

China General Manufacturing PMI. Sources: Caixin, S&P Global PMI

17:15 EUR Manufacturing PMIs Various June

Later this week

Tuesday

• 00:00 USA ISM Manufacturing PMI June (49.2 forecast vs 48.7 in May)

• 11:30 AUS RBA June Meeting Minutes

• 19:00 EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y to June (+2.8% forecast vs +2.9% in May)

• 23:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

Wednesday

• 00:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings June (7.86M forecast vs 8.06 in May)

• 11:30 AUS Retail Sales June (+0.3% forecast vs +0.1% in May)

• 11:45 CHN Caixin Services PMI June (53.4 forecast vs 54.0 in May)

• 17:15 EUR Services PMIs Various June

Thursday

• 00:00 USA Services PMI June (52.5 forecast vs 53.8 in May)

• 04:00 USA FOMC June Meeting Minutes

• All Day USA July 4 Public Holiday - non trading day

Friday

• 22:30 Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate June

  • +189K forecast vs +272K in May; +0.3% forecast vs +0.4% in May; 4.0% forecast vs 4.0% in May

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +47.6% Lindian Resources (LIN) - Outstanding Kangankunde Stage 1 Feasibility Study Results

• +10.9% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, post EOFY tax loss selling bounce?

• +8.9% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news, media reports that a fire has halted production at an Anglo-American owned coal mine in QLD helped ASX coal sector today

• +8.1% Cettire (CTT) - Becoming a substantial holder

• +6.9% Iperionx (IPX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend, closed back above short term trend ribbon 🔎📈

• +6.3% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) - No news, media reports that a fire has halted production at an Anglo-American owned coal mine in QLD helped ASX coal sector today

• +5.1% Stanmore Resources (SMR) - No news, media reports that a fire has halted production at an Anglo-American owned coal mine in QLD helped ASX coal sector today

• +5.1% Immutep (IMM) - Several broker updates in response to last week's Positive topline results from ph2b in head & neck cancer, see Broker Notes section for details

• +4.5% Yancoal Australia (YAL) - No news, media reports that a fire has halted production at an Anglo-American owned coal mine in QLD helped ASX coal sector today

• +4.5% New Hope Corporation (NHC) - No news, media reports that a fire has halted production at an Anglo-American owned coal mine in QLD helped ASX coal sector today

• +4.1% Lendlease Group (LLC) - $480 million sale of US Military Housing business

• +3.9% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) - Several broker updates in response to last week's Lynas Malaysia to Produce Separated Heavy Rare Earths, see Broker Notes section for details

• +3.7% IGO (IGO) - N2024 ESG Roadshow Presentation

Trading lower

• -16.1% Strike Energy (STX) - West Erregulla CSBP GSA Update, fall is consistent with long term downtrend, rebounded from long term downtrend ribbon 🔎📉

• -10.4% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, continued negative response to last week's NEWS (capital raise)

• -8.7% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - No news, continued negative response to last week's NEWS (capital raise)

• -7.8% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -6.9% Generation Development Group (GDG) - No news, first of July shenanigans! 🤔

• -6.9% Macmahon (MAH) - Receivers and Managers Appointed at Calidus Resources

• -6.0% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -5.8% DUG Technology (DUG) - No news, first of July shenanigans! 🤔

• -5.3% Pro Medicus (PME) - No news, first of July shenanigans! 🤔

• -5.3% Catapult Group International (CAT) - Release of Shares from Voluntary Escrow

• -5.2% Wisetech Global (WTC) - No news, first of July shenanigans! 🤔

• -5.2% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - No news, first of July shenanigans! 🤔

Broker Notes

• Adore Beauty Group (ABY) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.32

• Australian Finance Group (AFG) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.47

• AGL Energy (AGL) downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.85 from $11.25

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $55.00

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.50

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.80

• Baby Bunting Group (BBN)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.79 from $1.59

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.70

• Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.25

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ) retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.75

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $95.00

• Conrad Asia Energy (CRD) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85

• De Grey Mining (DEG) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.82 from $1.76

• Hansen Technologies (HSN)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.85

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $6.90

• Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.00 from $6.75

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.72 from $6.00

  • Downgraded to overweight from buy at Jarden; Price Target: $7.35 from $6.80

  • Downgraded at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $7.70 from $6.95

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.60 from $5.45

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.10 from $6.50

• Immutep (IMM)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.75 from $0.80

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.95

  • Retained at buy at CLSA; Price Target: $0.95

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $0.93

  • Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $1.13

• Inghams Group (ING) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.35

• Judo Capital (JDO) retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.00

• Liberty Financial Group (LFG) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.10 from $4.30

• Light & Wonder (LNW) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $182.00

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.80 from $7.55

  • Upgraded to outperform from underperform at CLSA; Price Target: $6.55 from $6.85

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.90

• Mirvac Group (MGR)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.10

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.26 from $2.31

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.81

• National Australia Bank (NAB)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $26.50

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.50

• Origin Energy (ORG) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $12.10 from $10.55

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $16.10

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $16.80

• Pepper Money (PPM) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.70

• Resimac Group (RMC) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.10

• Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Bank of America; Price Target: $4.50 from $5.05

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.45

• Sonic Healthcare (SHL) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.35

• Strike Energy (STX)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.31

  • Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.22

• Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE) initiated at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $1.94

• Technology One (TNE) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $19.70 from $18.85

• Viva Energy Group (VEA) upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.75

• Ventia Services Group (VNT) initiated at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.40

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.00

• Wisetech Global (WTC) retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $91.00 from $85.00

Scans