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Market Wraps
/Evening Wrap: ASX 200 notches gain as copper, nickel, gold, silver, and uranium stocks soar
Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 notches gain as copper, nickel, gold, silver, and uranium stocks soar
Mon 20 May 24, 5:46pm (AEST)
Stocks in article
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 49.3 points higher, up 0.63%.
We are indeed the lucky country. Blessed with all the good stuff the world wants for the upcoming energy transition, and not to mention all of those empty and derelict apartment buildings and bridges to nowhere in China. 🏨
Count your lucky stars Aussie investors, and...
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Mon 20 May 24, 4:35pm (AEST)
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Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 49.3 points higher at 7,863.7, 0.63% from its session low and just 0.13% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by 156 to 129.
The Gold (XGD) (+3.6%) sub-index was the best performing sector today, likely in response to a rising gold price, but also in response to a rocket ship emoji-deserving silver price 🚀 (more in ChartWatch).
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Silver Mines (SVL) | $0.215 | +$0.025 | +13.2% | +16.2% | -4.4% |
Bellevue Gold (BGL) | $2.02 | +$0.14 | +7.4% | +2.8% | +57.8% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | $1.670 | +$0.095 | +6.0% | +3.1% | -11.2% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | $2.15 | +$0.12 | +5.9% | -5.3% | +0.9% |
Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.495 | +$0.025 | +5.3% | +12.5% | +6.5% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $4.06 | +$0.2 | +5.2% | +1.5% | +4.4% |
Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) | $1.880 | +$0.085 | +4.7% | +20.1% | +47.5% |
Westgold Resources (WGX) | $2.27 | +$0.1 | +4.6% | -1.7% | +48.4% |
Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $66.37 | +$2.55 | +4.0% | +11.0% | 0% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | $2.10 | +$0.08 | +4.0% | +2.4% | +51.1% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $2.47 | +$0.09 | +3.8% | +8.8% | +19.9% |
West African Resources (WAF) | $1.525 | +$0.055 | +3.7% | +15.1% | +63.1% |
St Barbara (SBM) | $0.285 | +$0.01 | +3.6% | -3.4% | +10.0% |
De Grey Mining (DEG) | $1.200 | +$0.035 | +3.0% | -5.2% | -18.3% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $15.11 | +$0.42 | +2.9% | -1.2% | +10.9% |
The best gold and silver stocks today
Also doing well today was the Energy (XEJ) (+2.2%) sector. It finally caught a break from a modest recovery in crude oi prices. That recovery is showing some promise, so let's hope we see the XEJ more often in this discussion of sector winners over the next few days (again, see ChartWatch for more).
Cameco Corp. (NYSE: CCJ) chart
It also helped uranium stocks had a bumper day. I note though, some of this is likely also due to a very strong performance in global sector leader Cameco Corp. (NYSE: CCJ) on Friday night, and likely also talk about Australia's own potential foray into nuclear energy.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alligator Energy (AGE) | $0.065 | +$0.005 | +8.3% | +18.2% | +80.6% |
Paladin Energy (PDN) | $17.48 | +$1.23 | +7.6% | +20.6% | +173.1% |
Peninsula Energy (PEN) | $0.120 | +$0.008 | +7.1% | +25.7% | -17.9% |
Bannerman Energy (BMN) | $4.72 | +$0.3 | +6.8% | +33.0% | +258.9% |
Elevate Uranium (EL8) | $0.545 | +$0.03 | +5.8% | +12.4% | +58.0% |
New Hope Corporation (NHC) | $4.95 | +$0.27 | +5.8% | +5.1% | -1.2% |
Nexgen Energy (NXG) | $12.07 | +$0.59 | +5.1% | +0.5% | +108.8% |
Deep Yellow (DYL) | $1.715 | +$0.06 | +3.6% | +28.5% | +185.8% |
Karoon Energy (KAR) | $1.895 | +$0.06 | +3.3% | -14.6% | -7.1% |
Boss Energy (BOE) | $5.85 | +$0.16 | +2.8% | +26.9% | +113.5% |
Yancoal Australia (YAL) | $6.10 | +$0.14 | +2.3% | +4.6% | +14.2% |
Santos (STO) | $7.71 | +$0.16 | +2.1% | +0.3% | +8.1% |
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) | $28.08 | +$0.57 | +2.1% | -4.7% | -17.4% |
Viva Energy Group (VEA) | $3.45 | +$0.07 | +2.1% | -3.4% | +9.2% |
The best energy stocks today
Resources (XJR) (+2.2%) in general were in vogue today as hopes new stimulus measures for China’s property market would pump demand for our raw materials (I reported on these stimulus measures in Friday’s Economy section). The prices of base metals and iron ore, as well as uranium, and even lithium, are all higher since our last update on Friday.
London Metals Exchange (LME) copper chart
On the topic of lithium, remember all of those lithium and critical minerals stocks I said on Friday had finally emerged from the toilet? Yep, sadly, back in the toilet 🚽. Check the Interesting Moves section below for more details on these...
Only three of the 11 major ASX sectors experienced falls today, the worst being the serially underperforming Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.57%) sector. It’s a defensive sector with very limited earnings growth potential. Think about it – you’ve got stock indices making new highs all over the world…what would you want with Aussie staples stocks?
Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (-0.42%) sector was next worse. Market yields popped back up Friday.
ChartWatch
Brent Crude Oil Futures NYMEX
Promising hold of LT trend ribbon, but how much upside is there? 🤔
Silver, silver, silver. All anyone wants to talk about is silver! Well, what if you don't have any silver exposure in your portfolio? What if you have a portfolio full of energy stocks?
Well, if this is your lot in life, then firstly, commiserations. 😭
Secondly, looking at the chart of Brent Crude Oil above, there does appear to be the first signs of hope in some time. 🤞
The last time we covered Brent in ChartWatch was all the way back on May 8. The price was dwindling toward crucial dynamic demand at the long term uptrend ribbon, and I said to watch the candles closely there for “white bodies and or downward pointing shadows”.
Well, good news oil bulls, we actually did see a couple of nice downward pointing shadows smack bang on/in the long term uptrend ribbon, and the price has rallied with three subsequent white bodies. Note, the last of these is still a live candle so it is yet to prove itself.
I’m going to say that as far as supply-to-demand side transitions go, based on my experience, the one developing here on Brent is a perfectly valid one.
I suggest it won’t be all plain sailing from here, though. There’s likely to be plenty of supply lingering all the way back up to the 91.28 major peak. 84.76 is the first hot spot, it needs to be cleared with a high-closing white candle – only then does 88.64 become a possibility.
Bulls, there’s no point getting any further ahead of yourselves than that.
Bear case scenarios come back into play on a close below 81.05, which given its location within the long term uptrend, is the crucial pivot point between bull and bear market. As in, a close below 81.05 likely commences the latter…
Silver Futures COMEX
Hey, at least I didn’t talk about this one for an extra 5 minutes!
I kinda have to cover this one today given its heroics over the weekend.
In Thursday’s ChartWatch, I noted there remained “plenty of excess demand around” for silver, and that above the then key point of supply at 30.19, weekly targets of 31.21 and 32.76 potentially awaited.
There was an intra day pause at 31.21 on Friday, but in Asian trade today, short covering and speculative buying has pushed silver to briefly touch 32.75 – 1 cent off target!
The developing upward pointing shadow demonstrates there is indeed some supply up there, but it’s still a live candle, so I’m discounting it for now.
The bottom line is, in terms of how excess demand manifests itself in price, this chart sill has it all: well-established and accelerating short and long term uptrends, excellent price action, and predominantly demand-side candles.
Silver weekly chart
Above 32.76, the next key point of supply from the weekly chart isn’t until…wait for it…40.88.
Make of that what you will.
As for demand, that’s much simpler. 29.29-30.19 is now the key demand zone. As long as the silver price continues to close above it, the short term uptrend remains intact.
As always, watch candles from here. White bodies and or downward pointing shadows signal demand remains robust, whereas black bodies and or upward pointing shadows signal supply has arrived.
Economy
Today
CHN 1-year & 5-year Loan Prime Rate
No change at 3.45% as expected
Later this week
Tuesday
10:30 AUS Westpac Consumer Sentiment (-2.4% previous)
11:30 AUS Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thursday
04:00 USA FOMC Meeting Minutes
09:00 AUS Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.6 previous) & Flash Services PMI (53.6 previous)
17:15 (from) EU Various countries Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
23:45 USA Flash Manufacturing PMI (50.1 forecast vs 50.0 previous) & Flash Services PMI (51.5 forecast vs 51.3 previous)
Friday
22:30 USA Core Durable Goods Orders April (+0.1% forecast vs +0.0% March)
Latest News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+25.2% Nuix (NXL) - FY24 Earnings Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+20.0% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - Response to media articles, media speculation Hard Rock Hotels and Casinos mulling tilt at the company
+19.3% Gentrack Group (GTK) - Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+13.2% Silver Mines (SVL) - Silver companies are in the right place at the right time…see ChartWatch!, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈
+9.9% Pointsbet Holdings (PBH) - Upgrade of FY24 EBITDA Guidance, upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan but price target cut to $0.51 from $0.85
+8.3% Alligator Energy (AGE) - No news, modest rise in uranium price on Friday, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+8.0% 29METALS (29M) - Copper price keeps rising - up again on Friday promoting broad sector strength, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend 🔎📈
+7.7% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - Copper price keeps rising - up again on Friday promoting broad sector strength, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+7.6% Paladin Energy (PDN) - No news, modest rise in uranium price on Friday, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+7.4% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - Broad gold sector strength on rising gold price, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+7.1% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - Completion of Placement and Institutional Entitlement Offer, modest rise in uranium price on Friday, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+6.8% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, modest rise in uranium price on Friday, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
Trading lower
-11.1% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, pullback after recent massive rally
-9.9% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) - No news, continued negative response to Federal Budget
-9.2% Omni Bridgeway (OBL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉
-7.5% Sayona Mining (SYA) - No news, like VUL, Friday's rally unravelled today…unfortunately a case of easy come-easy go 😭
-6.3% Duratec (DUR) - Revised Guidance For Fy24 And Business Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉
-6.1% Core Lithium (CXO) - Appointment of Chief Executive Officer, but also probably a bit like SYA 😭
-5.9% Audinate Group (AD8) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend transitioned to neutral today 🔎📉
-5.8% Syrah Resources (SYR) - No news, see VUL, SYA and CXO 😭
-5.7% Brainchip Holdings (BRN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉
-5.0% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, see VUL, SYA, CXO and SYR 😭
-4.9% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - No news, see VUL, SYA, CXO, SYR and CHN 😭
-4.6% Appen (APX) - No news, doesn't have any critical minerals, but appears to be trading like it does…
-4.3% APM Human Services International (APM) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉
-4.2% Imugene (IMU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉
-4.1% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉
Broker Notes
AIC Mines (A1M) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.90
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $53.00 from $51.00
Upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $50.00 from $47.00
ANZ Group (ANZ) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $24.50
ARB Corporation (ARB) initiated at hold at Citi; Price Target: $35.60
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)
Upgraded to outperform from underperform at CLSA; Price Target: $11.20 from $9.80
Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $10.20 from $9.60
Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $10.50 from $9.20
Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.25 from $8.50
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.10 from $10.20
Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $8.75 from $8.00
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $82.00
Cromwell Property Group (CMW) retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.75 from $0.70
CSR (CSR) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.00 from $5.60
Dicker Data (DDR)
Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $10.50
Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $9.90 from $11.00
Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.00 from $13.00
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $11.80
Elders (ELD) retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $9.00
Graincorp Class A (GNC)
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.40
Upgraded to outperform from underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $10.00 from $7.75
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.45
IGO (IGO) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.60
Incitec Pivot (IPL) retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.25
James Hardie Industries (JHX)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $65.00
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $65.50
Lendlease Group (LLC) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.25
Arcadium Lithium (LTM) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.40
Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ) downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $90.20 from $93.00
Michael Hill International (MHJ) downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $0.68 from $0.86
National Australia Bank (NAB) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $26.50
Nexted Group (NXD) retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.75 from $0.85
OOH!Media (OML) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.80 from $1.55
Pointsbet Holdings (PBH) upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $0.51 from $0.85
Regis Healthcare (REG) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50 from $3.85
Rio Tinto (RIO) downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $137.00
Skycity Entertainment Group (SKC) retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.10
SRG Global (SRG) initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.30
Suncorp Group (SUN) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $17.05
Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.40
Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $19.30
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $12.40 from $11.52
Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $24.75
Xero (XRO) upgraded to overweight from neutral at Craigs Investment Partners; Price Target: $129.41 from $124.73
Scans
Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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