Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, Nasdaq hits record high + Silver, copper and nickel extend gains

Nvidia powered the Nasdaq to a fresh all-time high while the rest of the US market finished mixed, several commodities including gold, copper and aluminium continued to tick higher, Apple's China iPhone sales surge 52% on heavy discounting, Elon Musk's xAI raises US$6 billion in bid to take on OpenAI and Australian CPI data is due at 11:30 am.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 recovers some of its late session losses (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed, though ended off worst levels

• Nvidia gains helped push the Nasdaq to a fresh record close

• S&P 500 closed around breakeven but only 130 stocks managed to tick higher

• US market digesting a number of moving pieces coming out of the long holiday

• Bullish drivers include an upbeat AU sentiment, buoyant consumer confidence data and softening house price growth 

• Bearish drivers include bond yield backup, commodity rally, hawkish Fedspeak and retailer supply cuts

• Strong overnight session for both soft and hard commodities – base metals including aluminium, copper and gold continued to bounce from last week’s pullback

• Old-school sectors like utilities, energy and materials are outpacing the wider US market (WSJ)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Apple's China iPhone shipments surge 52% as rebound gains steam after poor start to 2024 (Bloomberg)

• Elon Musk's xAI raises US$6bn from Valor, a16z and Sequoia (Axios)

• Amazon in talks with Italy to invest billions of Euros in cloud plan (Reuters)

• GameStop shares soar premarket on completion of US$933m stock sale (WSJ)

• Volkswagen announces it will develop low-cost EVs for EU market (Reuters)

• Global sales for weight loss drugs by 2023 now projected to be US$150bn (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari said he would need to see "many more months of positive inflation data" before contemplating rate cuts (Bloomberg)

• Fed's Bowman backs maintaining pace of QT, while Fed's Mester wants more detailed policy statement (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

• Israel PM Netanyahu says strike on Rafah civilian camp "tragic mistake", prompting fresh calls to halt attacks (FT)

• China praises restart of communications with Japan and South Korea as leaders pledge to revive free trade talks (FT)

• Europe's defence ministers debating whether to permit Ukraine to hit Russia with their weapons aid (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• Chinese industrial profits return to growth in April, underlining authorities' efforts to boost manufacturing (FT)

• Japan services PPI inflation rises at fastest pace in more than 30 years (Bloomberg)

• Global shipping rates spike as businesses expect more disruption from ongoing Red Sea attacks (FT)

• Australian retail sales remain tepid as households hunker down (Bloomberg)

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ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 futures pointing towards a sizeable drop and potentially pushing the index to a two-week low

• Australian CPI due at 11:30 am and consensus expects inflation to ease from 3.5% in March to 3.4% in April

• Big overnight session for the resource space, I'll list some of the notable ETF movers plus some relevant stocks below:

  • iShares Silver Trust +5.4%: The main names that come to mind include Adriatic Metals (ADT), Silver Mines (SVL) and the recently listed Sun Silver (SS1)

  • Global X Copper Miners ETF +2.9%: Names like Sandfire (SFR), Aeris Resources (AIS) and Hillsgrove (HGO) have taken a breather in recent weeks. 29Metals (29M) is on the verge of breaking out but a cap raise is a risk to be weary of

  • Sprott Nickel Miners ETF +2.7%: There aren't many nickel names alive after last year's exodus but Centaurus Metals (CTM) has been running hot and Nickel Industries (NIC) is trying to settle after the recent run

  • VanEck Gold Miners ETF +2.4%: Gold is on a three-day win streak but still down around 2.5% in the last five sessions. There are way too many gold names to think about but some of the more interesting ones include Ramelius, Newmont (recently smashed quarterly earnings expectations), West African Resources and Resolute Mining (Africa-based names)

• Adriatic Metals completes US$50m institutional placement at $4.15 per share (ADT)

• BHP and Anglo American fail to make progress on negotiations amid fundamental disagreement on deal structure (FT)

• Fisher & Paykel reports FY24 result with FY25 guidance – FY underlying NPAT of NZ$264.4m slightly ahead of consensus NZ$258.8m (FPH)

BROKER MOVES

• Data#3 upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; target up to $8.4 from $8.10 (MS)

• Fortescue initiated Underweight with $19.11 target (Jarden)

• Perseus Mining initiated Buy with $3.0 target (Argonaut Securities) 

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 29 May: Nufarm (NUF) – $0.04

• Thu 30 May: Technology One (TNE) – $0.05, KKR Credit Income Fund (KKC) – $0.017, Gryphon Capital (GCI) – $0.015, 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.035, Pengana International (PIA) – $).014, Metrics Income Opportunities (MOT) – $0.013, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.014

• Fri 31 May: None

• Mon 3 June: Newmont (NEM) – $0.268

• Tue 4 June: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr)

• 3:00 pm: Japan Consumer Confidence (May)

• 4:00 pm: Germany Consumer Confidence (Jun)

• 10:00 pm: Germany Inflation (May)