Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq log another record close, RBA set to hold

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged another all-time high while the Dow snapped a four-day losing streak, China's economic data continues to flag headwinds for commodity markets, copper closes at its lowest level since late April, a major Fortescue holder is looking to offload $1.1 billion and brokers flock to initiate coverage of Life360 after its Nasdaq debut.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gives back some of its early gains but logs another all-time high (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher but erased some gains into close

• S&P 500 capped off 30th record close of the year

• Big tech once again led to the upside, with Broadcom (+5.4%), Tesla (+5.3%) and Apple (+1.9%) among the outperformers

• Bond yields ticker higher after falling to two-and-a-half month lows last week

• Relatively quiet session with very few catalysts to watch – though the market’s path of least resistance has been to the upside amid more certainty around the Fed’s rate cut path, disinflation momentum, AI growth, big tech outperformance and favourable earnings estimate revision trends

• Markets waiting for US retail sales and initial jobless claims data, buyback blackouts now going into effect and strong seasonal dynamics with the S&P up in July for nine straight years 

• French equities improve after Le Pen says she would work with Macron (Bloomberg)

• European mutual funds see €258B pulled out since start of 2022 (FT)

• Digital asset products saw $600m in outflows last week, most since March (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Apple to gradually roll out its new Intelligence features over several months stretching into 2025 (Bloomberg)

• FTC sues Adobe over subscription cancellation disclosures (Bloomberg)

• GameStop drops after annual meeting fails to flesh out strategy (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari says central bank can wait, watch data before it cuts rates, likely near end of year (Bloomberg)

• PBOC keeps MLF rate unchanged for 10th month, drains cash even as calls for rate cut grow louder (Bloomberg)

• ECB has no plans to discuss emergency purchases of French bonds (Reuters)

• ECB's Lane confident over inflation goal (Reuters)

• RBA expected to leave cash rate unchanged at 4.35%; Governor Bullock seen sticking with mildly hawkish bias (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

• Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet that has overseen war in Gaza since October (FT)

• German chamber in China says EU Commissions' move to slap tariffs on Chinese EVs won't protect automakers (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• China's industrial output growth slows, property price slump accelerates (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to open higher and break a two-day losing streak ahead of the RBA decision at 2:30 pm AEST

• Copper prices fell 1.0% to US$4.46/lb, the lowest close in 7 weeks and down 13% from late May peak

• Brent crude settled 2.1% higher for the highest close since 1 May, it also capped off its best week since April last Friday

• Ampol previously looking at EG Group’s Australian service stations but now likely to walk away  (The Aus)

• ClearView Wealth 27.9m share block trade crosses at 54.5 cents, representing 4.3% of the company

• Fortescue holder seeking to sell $1.1bn block which was run as a fixed price-trade at $21.60 per share vs. Tuesday’s close of $22.98 (AFR)

• Perenti reaffirms FY revenue guidance of $3.3-3.4bn in investor presentation (PRN)

• Tamboran Resources launches 6.5m shares US IPO at US$24-27 through BofA, Citi, RBC (TBN) 

BROKER MOVES

• BigTinCan downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $0.10 from $0.35 (Morgan Stanley)

• Integral Diagnostics upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $2.80 from $2.40 (JPMorgan)

• Life360 initiated Outperform with US$37 target price (Evercore ISI)

• Life360 initiated Buy with US$40 target price (Canaccord)

• Life360 initiated Neutral with US$32 target price (UBS) 

• Newmont upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target increased to $50 from $40 (UBS)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 18 June: Premier Investments (PMV) – $0.63

• Wed 19 June: Afp Pharmaceuticals (AFP) – $0.01 

• Thu 20 June: None

• Fri 21 June: CSR (CSR) – $0.12 

• Mon 23 June: None 

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Probiotec (PBP) – $0.037  

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 2:30 pm: RBA Interest Rate Decision

• 7:00 pm: Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun)

• 10:30 pm: US Retail Sales (May)