Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to tumble, S&P 500 ticks higher + 67 stocks and ETFs trade ex-dividend

Major US benchmarks ticked higher amid renewed momentum for tech stocks, lithium stocks rallied overnight as Chinese lithium futures spike on supply concerns, the market now expects the RBA to hike over the next two meetings and a long, long list of stocks, REITs and funds are trading ex-dividend over the next three days.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher in relatively uneventful trade (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks ticked higher in a relatively quiet overnight session

• Equal Weight S&P 500 (-0.38%) underperformed the official index by 54 bps

• Apple (+2.0%), Amazon (+3.9%) and Tesla (+4.8%) were notable large cap gainers

• Amazon hits US$2tn market cap amid AI enthusiasm (Bloomberg)

• BofA strategists see opportunity in value shares, saying they are trading very low multiples (Reuters)

• Andurand Capital exits long oil positions, pivots to copper and cocoa (Bloomberg)

• Options traders betting on 300 bp of Fed rate cuts by end of Q1 2025 (Bloomberg)

• Oil prices fall after DOE reports surprise build in crude and gasoline stockpiles (CNBC)

STOCKS

• FedEx rallied 15.5% on better-than-expected FY25 guidance, with expectations for US parcel demand to improve through the year, B2B growth and strong operating leverage from eventual recovery in freight demand (Bloomberg)

• Volkswagen to invest up to US$5bn in Rivian as part of JV (Reuters)

• OpenAI's abrupt move to block China to reshape AI scene (Bloomberg)

• Doordash flagged an interest buying UK's Deliveroo last month but ended talks on valuation disagreements (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB could hold new strategic review of its policy after August (Bloomberg)

• ECB's Rehn says bets for two more rate cuts this year reasonable (Bloomberg)

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent says current policy settings restrictive, working to slow inflation (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• US new home sales slump as supply hits more than 16-year high (Reuters)

• German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly dipped in July (Reuters)

• Australian inflation accelerates, increasing odds of an RBA rate hike (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to extend yesterday's CPI-driven selloff

• Australian 2-year yield surged 26 bps on Wednesday to 7-month high after headline inflation accelerated to 4.0% in May vs. consensus of 3.8%

• Market is currently pricing in over 50% likelihood of a hike in the next two meetings

• Lithium stocks started to rally around 1:30 pm yesterday after a major Chinese producer went down for maintenance – Chinese lithium carbonate futures opened the session 4% lower and finished 4.4% higher to 97,050 yuan a tonne

• Lithium stocks are heavily shorted – Pilbara (20.6%), Liontown (11.6%), Sayona (9.9%) – Let's see if this bounce can persist and possibly squeeze stocks higher

• Baby Bunting reaffirms full-year net profit guidance of $2-4m (BBN)

• Dexus, CPPIB sell joint half stake in 5 Martin Place in Sydney for $310m or 12% discount from latest book value (AFR)

• Medibank Private seeking M&A targets in the area of primary health care (The Aus)

• Paladin Energy issues Langer Heinrich Mine FY25 guidance, targeting nameplate production of 6 million pounds per annum by 2026 (PDN)

• Retail Food Group could be a takeover target as it appears cheap against recently listed Guzman y Gomez (The Aus)

BROKER MOVES

• Bluescope upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target cut to $23 from $24 (JPMorgan) 

• Collins Foods upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $11.50 from $10.95 (UBS)

• Karoon Energy upgraded to Buy from Overweight; target up to $2.28 from $2.21 (Jarden)

• ResMed upgraded to Buy from Outperform; target remains $34.40 (CLSA)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 27 June – REITs: HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) – $0.002, Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.04, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.03,  Homeco Daily Needs REIT (HDN) – $0.021, Arena REIT (ARF) – $0.043, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.065, Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.016, Hotel Property Investments (HPI) – $0.095, Charter Hall (CHC) – $0.23, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) – $0.04, Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.041, GDI Property Group (GDI) – $0.025, National Storage (NSR) – $0.055, Goodman Group (GMG) – $0.15, Stockland (SGP) – $0.166, Growthpoint Properties (GOZ) – $0.097, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.053, Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) – $0.041, Dexus (DXS) – $0.213

• Thu 27 June – Everything else: Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029, Virgin Money (VUK) – $0.039, Mirvac Group (MGR) – $0.06, Region Group (RGN) – $0.07

• Fri 28 June: Abacus Group (ABG) – $0.043, Ophir High Conviction Fund (OPH) – $0.06, Danakali (DNK) – $0.009, Abacus Storage King (ASK) – $0.03 

• Mon 1 July: Approximately 210 ETFs are trading ex-dividend. See a full list here

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Tower (TWR) – $0.023, GQG Partners (GQG) – $0.03, Newmont (NEM) – $0.261

• Listing: None

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 pm: US Durable Goods (May)

• 10:30 pm: US Q1 GDP Final